Manchester City vs PSG Champions League Match Day 5 Preview

Manchester City vs PSG Picks and Predictions

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Wednesday afternoon’s Manchester City vs PSG showdown in the UEFA Champions League. PSG won the first leg in Paris. Can Manchester City return the favor with a win on their home soil on Wednesday?

Stay on top of the latest Soccer updates direct from Las Vegas!

Manchester City vs PSG Betting Preview

• Manchester City -165
• PSG +420
• Draw +345
• Total: 3 Goals

Both teams roll into this match off domestic league wins over the weekend as Man City took care of Everton 3-0 at home, despite missing the services of Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish, while PSG easily beat a weak Nantes team 3-1, with the Big 3 of Messi, Neymar and Mbappe all in action.

Group Play

As it stands now, Manchester City sit atop the group with 9 points, leading PSG by one point, despite the fact that PSG actually won the reverse fixture 2-0 in Paris back in September. PSG were unable to beat either German side RB Leipzig or Belgium outfit Club Brugge as they settled for draws on the road against both teams. The result against Leipzig isn’t all that bad as they are a quality team capable of keeping up with the big boys, but not being able to beat lowly Club Brugge in Belgium is not what you should expect from a team that was one of the two favorites to win the Champions League before the group stage began.

PSG drew 1-1 at Club Brugge in their first group stage game in September generating 1.42 xG while allowing 1.33. Compare that to Man City who are coming in off back-to-back blowout wins over Brugge, winning 4-1 at home and 5-1 on the road. In both matches, City generated over 4.50 xG while allowing less than 0.80 xGA. That, is what you should expect from an actual title contender.

In the first meeting between these teams, I already mentioned PSG earned the result with a 2-0 win but really that result was the luck of a couple bounces going PSG’s way as they really didn’t generate much offense on their own the entire match. Man City created more xG in the game by a significant margin, 1.92 to 0.46 while also taking 18 shots with 7 on goal with PSG only putting up 6 shots with 3 on goal.

One last set of numbers I will mention is that in four group stage games for each team, Man City is averaging 3.45 xG and allowing just 0.78 xGA while PSG is averaging 1.77 and 2.17, respectively. In their most recent game, PSG allowed 3.30 xGA on the road at RB Leipzig in a 2-2 draw.

Manchester City vs PSG Injury Report

There are notable absences and uncertainties for both teams going into this match. Kevin De Bruyne missed the weekend match vs Everton after testing positive for COVID-19 and is also ruled out for this match. Jack Grealish also sat out the weekend affair with a minor knock but is likely to be back for this game, although nothing is confirmed as of this publishing. I am fully expecting him on the field though, even if only in a substitute role.

Raheem Sterling took full advantage of the absences over the weekend as he fights to get back his place in the starting XI and should once again setup with Foden up front, who is the most important creator to the Man City offense.

For PSG, they have several notable absences here. First and foremost, the Big 3 are all healthy and expected to play, but midfield and defense is what will likely be the difference maker in this match and PSG are missing some key people. On defense, Presnel Kimpembe, who had played in every Ligue 1 and Champions League game until the last two, remains sidelined for this match with a hamstring injury while the behemoth-of-a-man Gianluigi Donnarumma will not be in net with a non-COVID-19 illness. Role players Rafinha and Draxler are also both unavailable with injuries.

Manchester City vs PSG Prediction

xG data cannot predict the outcome of a match. It is purely a tool to understand a sport that has very few goals which often enough, the score doesn’t match the play on the field. That being said, it is a great predictor of future success as the teams that create more and better chances, will win more often than not over a large sample size. Man City deserved a better result in the first meeting between these teams and have clearly been the most dominant team in the group thus far. Add in the fact that PSG has more notable injuries issues to deal with, I see Manchester City controlling the play on the field and likely earning the result. City beat PSG in both legs of their quarterfinal meeting last year and I think we will see them get their third win in the last four meetings between these teams.

Enjoy what should be another great round of Champions League games this week and good luck with your wagers!

⚽ The final legs of the #UCL group stage kick off tomorrow as Europe’s top teams look to stamp their place in the knockout rounds. @BorrMan00 offers his thoughts on Wednesday’s featured #ChampionsLeague match between Manchester City and PSG.
➡️ https://t.co/tV7WXZYGzF pic.twitter.com/cJJ3H0T3m4

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 23, 2021

Stoppage Time

Match Day 5 of the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League kicks off on Tuesday, November 23 as the top teams in Europe battle to stay alive in the world’s most prestigious club soccer competition. Join Carmine Bianco, Nick Borrman, Pavlos Laguretos and Kevin Dolan at 10am ET / 7am PT on Tuesday as they offer their thoughts on this week’s featured games from the Champions League: Villarreal vs Manchester United; Barcelona vs Benfica; Manchester City vs PSG; and Liverpool vs Porto.

Soccer Betting Guide

What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for this week’s UEFA Champions League games, including this Manchester City vs PSG showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!