Manchester Derby Betting Preview and Odds March 6
Manchester United vs Manchester City
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Manchester Derby betting preview for Sunday, March 6. Manchester United is one of the (very) few teams that has enjoyed recent success against the Citizens. Can the Red Devils earn another result against the Premier League leaders on Sunday?
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| Sunday, March 6 | Manchester Derby Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Manchester City: | -235 |
| Manchester United: | +650 |
| Draw: | +380 |
| Total: | 3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 11:30am ET / 8:30am PT |
Manchester Derby Betting Analysis
Just a month ago it looked like a foregone conclusion that City would once again claim the EPL title, but after a couple games dropping points against Southampton and Tottenham, Liverpool is suddenly right back in the mix as they simply refuse to do anything but win.
Citizens’ Amazing Defense
City of course is still the cream of the crop, not only in the EPL, but in all of Europe when you look at their numbers. We all know City can put up five goals in any given game, but the most impressive numbers are on the defensive side of the ball.
City has the best defense in Europe according to xG, allowing a mere 0.70 xGA per game on just 6.6 shots with only 2.4 on goal per game. The league average in the EPL alone is basically double in every statistic at 1.41 xGA, 12.9 shots and 4.4 on goal. Remarkable, considering they are doing this in the best league in the world.
United, the Draw Specialists
It would be very easy for me to say how impressive United have been if I mentioned that they have just one loss over their last 20 games in all competitions (in 90’ minutes of regulation as they do have a second loss in extra time of the FA Cup). While that is entirely true, it has actually been disappointing as they have settled for nine draws during that span including vs teams they should be beating like Watford, Southampton, Burnley, Aston Villa and Newcastle.
The one constant though during their run is that their defense, for the most part, has been steady as they have conceded more than one goal just three times in those 20 games. The inconsistency has come on the offensive side of the ball where they have settled for one goal or less 13 times.
Against the other members of the Premier League’s big four (Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City), Man United has shown that they are simply not on the same level. After playing each of those opponents once so far this season, Manchester United has scored a total of just one goal.
Manchester Derby Prediction
You can throw all the numbers out of the window for this match because it’s the Manchester Derby and United has proven that the better team doesn’t always win. United is one of a very few teams that has had Man City’s number of late with three wins and a draw in their last six meetings, although City did win the reverse fixture 2-0 earlier this season.
The under is the trendy play that has cashed in all six of those games and eight of the last nine. Further, City cannot afford anymore slip-ups with Liverpool right on their heels, while United is in a similar position battling for a top-4 spot. I think a focused defensive effort is in the cards here for both teams in need of points and I’ll ride the recent series trends and go with under 3 goals (-115).
Interested in placing a bet on Sunday’s Manchester Derby in the Premier League? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Stoppage Time | European Soccer Predictions
Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos, and Nick Borrman every Tuesday at 10am ET / 7am PT for Stoppage Time as we break down the biggest matches in Europe. On this week’s episode, we head to England to discuss this weekend’s featured Premier League matches, including the Manchester Derby; Liverpool vs West Ham; and Tottenham vs Everton.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for this weekend’s Premier League matches, including this Manchester Derby showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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