Manchester United vs Arsenal Picks and Odds Dec 1
Manchester United vs Arsenal Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Thursday afternoon’s Manchester United vs Arsenal showdown on Match Day 14 in the Premier League. The Red Devils have failed to pick up a win in the last six meetings between these two teams, with Arsenal capturing three wins and three draws.
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Manchester United vs Arsenal Predictions
- Manchester United EV
- Arsenal +270
- Draw +265
- Total: 2.5 Goals
Both teams come into this game off good results over the weekend. Arsenal did what they were supposed to do and beat Newcastle 2-0 at home in a game that was never in doubt while United, with Michael Carrick acting as interim manager for the second game, earned a point in a shaky 1-1 draw at Chelsea. The result was no doubt a good one for United, but the play on the field was more of the same and they were clearly not the better team.
United struck first just after halftime as they were gifted a goal with a terrible defensive mistake that gave Jadon Sancho and easy opportunity to score. The goal was not created through their own build-up and over the entire game, they were once again clearly lacking any sort of creativity, generating just 0.56 xG and managing just three shots. Meanwhile Chelsea were creating chance after chance and ended up settling for one goal, which came on a Jorginho penalty kick, despite generating 2.35 xG on 24 shots in the game.
How We Got Here?
It’s been a tale of two mini seasons it seems for each of these teams already. Arsenal started off terribly, losing their first three games without scoring a goal, but have righted the ship with just one loss in their last ten games to go along with seven wins and one draw to climb to 5th in the table and five points clear of United.
United on the other hand, starting off the season very well, unbeaten in their first five games with four wins and a draw, then a home loss to Aston Villa starting the unraveling. Over their last eight games, they have just one win which game away at Tottenham, who have been struggling mightily on their own. They have fallen to 8th in the table, but luckily have at least been finding ways to get results in the Champions League where they are leading the group, which is admittedly rather weak, heading into the final match day.
But that brings up an important point as to why I believe we are seeing Arsenal playing so well. The Gunners do not have any European games to deal with and can solely focus their lineups and energy on their Premier League games which is clearing hurting this United team. While at the same time, there have been a lot of arguments made that United actually got worse with the addition of Ronaldo, which just seems insane to even say. But I think it was more that their now ex-manager, Solskjaer, just didn’t know how to manage adding Ronaldo and how best to set their lineup and formation. Almost right away, it seemed inevitable that he was going to be fired.
United have appointed a new interim manager, Ralf Rangnick on a deal through the end of the season. Rangnick has a ton of managerial experience, having managed several German clubs in his career, totaling over 650 games, and is expected to be on the sidelines for the first time in this match against Arsenal.
Season by the Numbers
While clearly it’s hard to say either of these teams is the same team that started the season, let’s take a look at their numbers through 13 games.
Arsenal
7-2-4 Record | 15:17 goal differential | 23 points, 5th in the table
Offensive Averages: 1.41 xG | 14.1 Shots for | 4.6 on Goal
Defensive Averages: 1.69 xGA | 14.2 Shots allowed | 4.7 on Goal
Last 10 Games: 1.65 xG – 1.20 xGA. Not including their 0-4 loss to Liverpool: 1.81 xG – 0.89 xGA
Manchester United
5-3-5 record | 21:22 goal differential | 18 points, 8th in the table
Offensive Averages: 1.48 xG | 13.6 Shots for | 4.8 on Goal
Defensive Averages: 1.80 xGA | 14.4 Shots allowed | 4.7 on Goal
Last 8 Games: 1.22 xG – 2.27 xGA
Volume is very similar for both teams but the quality of both chances created and allowed, measured in xG (expected goals), clearly favors Arsenal, especially in current form.
Prediction
United will likely have their new manager pulling the strings for the first time in this game, which could give them a motivational boost, but they have looked very pedestrian for quite some time now and I don’t think this will be a quick turnaround for this team. This is also a tough scheduling spot for them. As I mentioned earlier, having UCL games to deal with on top of EPL matches is hard to juggle. United had a midweek UCL game against Villarreal last week, followed by that tough match against Chelsea on Sunday. The Gunners then come to town here on Thursday, before hosting Palace over the weekend and right back to their final UCL group stage game next Wednesday which is a must-win.
Additionally, Arsenal have had United’s number as United is winless in the last six EPL meetings between these teams with three Arsenal wins and three draws.
Form, schedule and recent series all favor Arsenal and getting a +0.5 head start looks like the only way to play this game. Grab the Gunners +0.5 at -110 which I expect to drop before gameday.
Enjoy the midweek Premier League matches this week and good luck with your wagers!
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Stoppage Time
Will any of England’s “big three” stumble on Match Day 14? Join Carmine Bianco, Nick Borrman, Pavlos Laguretos and Kevin Dolan for Stoppage Time as they offer their thoughts on this week’s featured games from the Premier League – Everton vs Liverpool; Southampton vs Leicester City; and Manchester United vs Arsenal – plus a marquee game in the MLS Playoffs, New England Revolution vs NYCFC.
Soccer Betting Guide
What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.
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