Mexico vs USMNT Prediction and Odds | CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying March 24

Mexico vs USMNT Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Mexico vs USMNT betting preview for Thursday, March 24 as part of CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifying. Mexico and the U.S. are tied for second in the group, with the top three teams advancing to the World Cup in Qatar.

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Thursday, March 24	CONCACAF Betting Notes
Mexico:	-110
USMNT:	+285
Draw:	+245
Total:	2.25 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT

Mexico vs USMNT Analysis

Both teams sit level on 21 points and are looking up at a surprising Canadian team leading the table with 25 points. The top three teams automatically qualify for the World Cup while the fourth place team still having a chance, but must play an additional playoff game.

Mexico and the USMNT lead Panama by four points, and any points in this match would be big for both teams. Here is the current table with three games remaining.

Mexico’s Reign Ending

Mexico has long been the ruler of CONCACAF but that seems to finally be coming to an end thanks to improvements from both USA and Canada. Against Canada and USA in this qualifying campaign, Mexico has one draw and two losses with both losses coming on the road.

This is also not the same high-flying Mexican side we have grown accustomed to over the years. They used to be able to rely on their offense to win games but now they must lean on their defense to win as they simply aren’t scoring goals like they used to. In fact, in 11 qualifying games so far, they have scored three goals just one time while scoring one goal or less in seven matches, including all three against Canada and USA.

However, their defense has been solid, especially at home. In their last 17 competitive matches, they have allowed two goals just twice, which happened to be both matches in November, at Mexico and at USA. But at home, they haven’t allowed more than one goal since a World Cup qualifying match against Guatemala in 2005. In their home match against Canada in this campaign, they played to a 1-1 draw.

It’s All on the Line for USA

The USMNT is just a couple of points away from securing their World Cup bid and putting the embarrassment of not qualifying for the 2018 World Cup behind them. They are quickly rising in the FIFA rankings thanks to a ton of young talent.

Unlike the Mexican side whose squad is mostly made up of players from Liga MX or the MLS, the USMNT is well represented in Europe on some of the biggest clubs in the world.

That list includes Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig), Gio Reyna (Dortmund) and Ricardo Pepi (Augsburg) to name a few. A couple of absences for this international break, however, include Weston McKennie (Juventus) and Sergino Dest (Barcelona) both due to injury.

That list has helped turn the tide of CONCACAF football and in fact, USA has now beaten Mexico in three straight meetings including in the finals of both the Nations League and the Gold Cup, as well as the reverse fixture of this World Cup qualifying campaign.

Much like Mexico, USA has relied on their defense to win games as they have scored more than two goals just twice in 11 qualifying matches. However, they have kept five clean sheets and have allowed more than one goal just one time (0-2 loss at Canada).

Mexico vs USMNT Prediction

There is a lot more to lose in this game than there is to win, meaning even a point from a draw is going to be important here for both teams as Panama and Costa Rica lurk just behind. There is no benefit to finishing first in the group and pushing to close the gap on Canada’s four-point lead will come with a lot of risk.

Much like most of their recent meetings, I expect a low-scoring game for this one as both teams will likely play very cautiously. Six of the last eight meetings have finished under 2.5 goals and while we can’t get that number without laying a lot of juice, we can grab under 2.25 Goals at -130.

Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Mexico vs USMNT World Cup qualifying clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.

Soccer Betting 101

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this week’s CONCACAF World Cup qualifying games, including this Mexico vs USMNT showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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