Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS July 30

Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers Betting Preview

Saturday’s showdown between Minnesota United and the Portland Timbers will likely have some playoff implications in the Western Conference. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Saturday’s MLS action.

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Saturday, July 30	MLS Betting Notes
Minnesota United:	-125
Portland Timbers:	+295
Draw:	+280
Total:	3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT

Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers Analysis

This is a battle of two playoff contenders as #3 Minnesota host #8 Portland on Saturday afternoon. The top two teams in the West, LAFC and Austin have begun to pull away from the pack and Minnesota is left standing as the ‘best of the rest’ with 34 points through 22 games. Portland is only four points back, but in a very tight table, they actually sit on the outside looking in at the last playoff spot right now, level with LA Galaxy on 30 points.

Weather looks great for kickoff with temperatures in the upper 80s, plenty of sun and no rain in the forecast.

United is Streaking

Minnesota is playing some good football right now, currently on a run of six straight games unbeaten with five wins and one draw. However, the schedule has certainly worked in their favor as four of those teams are outside of the playoffs. It certainly was a much-needed run though after Minnesota had lost four straight matches prior to that including one Cup match.

According to xG though, Minnesota actually sits in the bottom half of the MLS with a -0.07 xG differential per game while they own an actual goal differential of +0.23 per game. That ranks as the fifth-biggest over-performance of xG in the league at +0.30 per game, and generally speaking, is unsustainable. Even more alarming, is that during their six-game unbeaten run, they have scored 14 goals on 9.17 xG and those numbers tend to correct themselves sooner rather than later.

My Streak, is Better than Yours

The Timbers are riding a longer, seven-game unbeaten run, and while some of their opponents have been weak as well, they have played some of the better teams in the league including Seattle and Nashville.

Portland remains a team of wily veterans that know how to win games and grind out results. As a result, they have only lost six games through 22 matches this season. When looking at xG, they have better, albeit slightly, numbers than Minnesota with a +0.03 xG differential per game. They have also tightened the belt defensively as of late. After allowing 25 goals through their first 15 matches this season, Portland has since allowed just six goals in their last seven matches including allowing more than one goal just one time.

Minnesota United vs Portland Timbers Prediction

Minnesota holds the recent H2H advantage, losing just one of their last eight meetings, but I still see plenty of value in the current number. Based on this season’s results, these two teams are very evenly matched and the United should only be -0.25 favorites with home field advantage.

As long as Portland continues to play solid defense, being able to get +0.75 is great value as it seems very unlikely that Portland loses this match by multiple goals, so I see this as a half-wager risk. Grab the head start on Portland +0.75 (-120).

Soccer Betting 101

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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