MLS Picks, Predictions and Odds Saturday May 6

Betting Preview for MLS May 6

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his MLS weekend match predictions and picks around key matches including San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps vs Minnesota United. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC | Saturday 5/6 | 7:30pm ET

San Jose +175 | Draw +230 | LAFC +135
Asian Handicap: LAFC -0.25 | Total: 2.75

What’s the first thing you think of when you think of LAFC? Goals, right? Rightfully so. The defending champs lead the league averaging 1.75 xG per 90 minutes.

They also led the league last year with a slightly higher number at 1.85 and again in 2021 at 1.89, so offense is certainly nothing new for this team.

What you may not realize though is that their defense is also very good as they rank 2nd in the league to NYRB, allowing just 0.95 xGA. Much of that can be attributed to their heavy possession style, as they simply don’t allow their opponents much possession, and thus, chances at goal.

However, I am looking at the Over with the expectation that San Jose will get some chances in this match and likely net one or two.

The Quakes have been held scoreless just twice this year and have been excellent at home with four wins and a draw. Plus, we have LAFC coming off their midweek Champions League clash with Philadelphia, so it’s likely we see some tired legs and that generally is more of an issue defensively. LAFC were able to beat Philly and advance to the Final.

Historically, this series has proven to be high scoring as well. In 13 all-time meetings dating back to LAFC’s expansion season, only two have failed to reach at least three goals scored. I fully expect that trend to continue Saturday.

Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals -115

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union | Saturday 5/6 | 7:30pm ET

NYRB +105 | Draw +235 | Philadelphia +235
Asian Handicap: NYRB -0.25 | Total: 2.25

It’s the Red Bulls. Take the Under. Sometimes it really is that simple. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. NYRB has played ten matches this season and only one has finished Over this total.

They have the league’s best defense according to xG, allowing a paltry 0.76 xGA per 90 minutes which is obviously a big reason their matches are finishing Under the total. They have yet to allow more than one goal in any match this season.

Offensively, the Red Bulls are simply not creating a lot of chances compared to say LAFC, Seattle or even this Philly side who all average north of 1.70 xG per match.

New York is averaging just 1.33 xG which ranks 11th in the league and from there, they simply aren’t finishing the chances they do create. They have scored just seven goals on nearly 13.0 xG. Until they start converting those chances, I’ll continue to ride the Under.

Philadelphia is having a slow start to the season. We saw this last year from Seattle who also had Champions League duties and struggled in league play.

Philadelphia was just eliminated on Tuesday night in the semifinals, so perhaps we start to see them rise to the level they were expected to be at preseason.

Last year, they allowed a total of just 26 goals in 34 matches, but are already halfway there, allowing 13 through their first ten games.

Their home form has still been solid with a 3-1-1 record after not losing a single match last season, but their road form has been dreadful. 0-1-3 with a 4:8 goal differential is no acceptable for a team that is supposed to be a title contender.

However, they still have one of the best lineups in the league and their defensive pieces are all in place. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt on tired legs and expect them to start to tighten in up defensively. But even if they do allow some chances on Saturday, it’s not like NYRB will actually convert them…right?

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -115

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Minnesota United | Saturday 5/6 | 10:30pm ET

Vancouver -125 | Draw +260 | Minnesota +290
Asian Handicap: Vancouver -0.5 | Total: 2.5

At first, I was tempted to take Vancouver in this match as they have been one of the better sides so far this season averaging 1.69 xG per match which ranks 3rd in the league.

Minnesota is a well-organized team that doesn’t allow many quality chances to the tune of just 1.09 xGA per 90 minutes which drops to 0.88 on the road as they setup more defensively.

For that reason, only three of Minnesota’s nine MLS matches have finished Over this total. At the same time, Vancouver has been struggling to score as they have been held scoreless in four of their last five matches in all competitions.

Granted, two of those were in the Champions League quarterfinals, but they faced an MLS side, LAFC, who held them scoreless in both legs. The Whitecaps, thus, also have a 3-6 O-U record.

Defensively though, Vancouver has still been strong. They allowed two goals in their first match of the season vs Real Salt Lake but haven’t allowed more than one goal in their eight MLS matches since, for a total of just seven goals on the season.

Bottom line is we have two of the better defenses in the league that will battling it out in the midfield and likely struggle to create many quality chances either way. This should be tight throughout.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -110