MLS Picks, Predictions and Odds For Wednesday May 17

Betting Preview for MLS May 17

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 17 MLS match predictions and picks around key matches including Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC vs Inter Miami. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls | Wednesday, May 17 | 7:30pm ET

Toronto +145 | Draw +225 | NYRB +175
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 2.25

Albert Einstein said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. So, I guess that means betting the Under in Red Bulls matches is the most sane thing you can do, and who am I to argue with Einstein?!

New York once again cashed another Under last weekend beating NYCFC 1-0 to now make it 11 of 12 matches that have finished Under the total for the Red Bulls.

I mentioned in my last article that NYRB is a playoff team, ignore the fact that they sit bottom of the table. After their win, and as tight as the East is, New York now sit just three points outside of a playoff spot and much of that is thanks to their defense.

New York owns the best defense in the league according to xG allowing a ridiculously low 0.75 xGA per 90 minutes. All they need to do is start converting their chances as they have scored just eight goals on over 15.3 xG, but until they do that, I’ll continue to ride the Under in their matches.

I also played an Under in the Toronto/Montreal match over the weekend as Toronto averages less than 1.0 xG per 90 minutes and that spells trouble against a defense as well organized at New York’s.

Toronto have been held scoreless in back-to-back matches which is now the 4th time this year. Their defense has been solid though as they allow just 1.23 xGA per match which drops to 1.08 at home.

This match features the leagues best defense vs the leagues 3rd worst offense which surprisingly also has a solid defense.

I don’t see much action coming here on either end of the field. The series has been trending Under as well as eight of the last 11 meetings have finished Under this total.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals +100

Nashville SC vs Inter Miami | Wednesday, May 17 | 8:30pm ET

Nashville -150 | Draw +275 | Miami +380
Asian Handicap: Nashville -0.75 | Total: 2.5

I don’t expect a lot of action in this match, at least not from the visitors. Nashville has allowed one goal or less in all but one match this season, 11 of 12 MLS games and 13 of 14 overall including two US Open Cup matches.

At home, they have conceded just three goals in seven MLS matches, keeping four clean sheets, plus both Cup matches were home clean sheet wins as well.

Overall, Nashville is allowing 0.93 xGA per 90 minutes, one of only three MLS teams allowing less than 1.0 per match. Their seven goals conceded leads the league.

Miami is coming in on a three-game win streak beating Columbus, Atlanta and New England, all three solid teams. But what worries me is that they were outshot by their opponents in each game and in those three games, they still averaged a negative xG differential, averaging 1.00 xG while allowing 1.13.

Miami scored two goals in all three matches, but I don’t see that happening as they travel to Nashville. Prior to their three-game win streak, they were blanked in five of six games scoring a total of just two goals over a six-game span.

For what it’s worth, I also like the Under in this match, but I like Nashville a little more in case of a 2-1 or 3-0 result. I simply don’t see Miami getting anything here traveling on short rest to one of the best defenses in the league.

Prediction: Nashville SC -0.75 -115

Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City | Wednesday, May 17 | 10:30pm ET

LAFC -200 | Draw +350 | Kansas City +425
Asian Handicap: LAFC -1.0 | Total: 3.0

Wow! In the last two games, Kansas City has scored five goals, compared to an MLS record-setting total of just three goals in their first ten matches. But here is your warning. Nothing has changed.

SKC scored five goals on a combined 1.60 xG in those two matches. They simply overachieved. Those xG numbers are right in line with what they have been doing all season so it’s not like they suddenly started creating a bunch more chances.

The combined final score of their last two games was 5-1. The combined xG final tally of those same two games was 1.60-2.80. That is not an indicator of a team that has turned anything around.

On the season, Kansas City still average a league worst 0.85 xG per 90 minutes and thus have the 2nd worst differential in the league at -0.56 per match, better than only Montreal.

Meanwhile, LAFC continue to roll. They won 3-0 at Real Salt Lake which is a notoriously difficult place to play and sit 2nd in the Western table, two points behind Seattle, though they do have two games in hand. Their +12 goal differential is the best mark in the league.

At home, LAFC is just scary. A perfect 4-0 this season with a 12:3 goal differential, plus add in two recent 3-0 Champions League wins over Vancouver and Philadelphia as they have reached the finals of that competition. Last season, LAFC was 13-2-2 at home with a +24 goal differential, far and away the best in the West, as only Philadelphia had a better home record.

LAFC are the rare anomaly of an MLS club that has been able to juggle multiple competitions successfully. Last season we saw Seattle struggle in MLS play as they eventually won the CCL, while this year, Philadelphia was very slow out of the gates as they progressed to the semifinals before being ousted by this LAFC squad.

Perhaps that schedule will catch up to LAFC at some point, but it’s not happening in this match vs a team that has no offensive creativity. Comfortably lay the goal here on LAFC.

Prediction: Los Angeles FC -1.0 -125