MLS Predictions, Picks and Best Bets For 6/21/23

Betting Preview for MLS June 21

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his June 21 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including CF Montreal vs Nashville SC and FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

CF Montreal vs Nashville SC | Wednesday 6/21 | 7:30pm ET

Montreal +160 | Draw +230 | Nashville +160
Asian Handicap: Pick’em +0 | Total: 2.75

Another win for Nashville over the weekend beating St Louis to remain 2nd in the Eastern Conference as they try to keep pace with the only team in the league that is hotter than them, Cincinnati.

Montreal did not play over the weekend and will come in with a little extra rest which is important to note as they have been rock solid at home this season going 6-0-1 with a sparkling 14:3 goal differential.

While they continue to struggle away with just one win, one draw and eight losses, they have kept five straight clean sheets at home and thus, have had five of their seven matches finish Under the total.

Montreal is allowing 1.86 xGA on the road this year, but at home, that number drops to just 0.97. Their defense has been the key to their home form as their offense has still struggled to generate many chances, creating only 1.17 xG per 90 minutes in Saputo Stadium.

Only five other MLS teams are averaging fewer. Nashville plays defense wherever they are, but in an odd twist, they allow less xGA away from home, one of just three teams that can say that.

Nashville allows 1.03 xGA per 90 minutes at home, but that drops to 0.94 on the road, the lowest average in the league and the only team under 1.0. Nashville do often concede, however, as they have kept just two clean sheets on the road in eight matches.

They have also only scored two goals just three times as they struggle to create many chances averaging a very low 0.73 xG per match. Because of that, five of their eight matches have finished Under the total.

It’s hard to argue against Nashville being the better side, but in this spot, I like Montreal given the extra time to prepare for this match while Nashville is travelling to Canada on short rest.

However, fully expecting Nashville to do their thing defensively, I don’t see many chances either way and prefer the + money price on taking the Under.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +110

FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC | Wednesday 6/21 | 7:30pm ET

Cincinnati -155 | Draw +285 | Toronto +390
Asian Handicap: Cincinnati -0.75 | Total: 2.75

First instinct is to grab Cincinnati here and I still might just do that, but oddsmakers are no dummies and Toronto has been surprisingly solid at the back of late holding their opponents to one goal or less in six straight matches including playing out a 1-1 draw vs Nashville in their last match.

Of course, that was at home, but laying the price on Cincinnati just doesn’t sit well with me. Instead, I’ll trust they sit themselves up defensively and continue to focus on that side of the field which has been earning them points as they try to climb the table and into a playoff position.

Toronto’s offense has been anemic, averaging just 0.98 xG per match which drops to 0.80 on the road, so I don’t expect much from them in terms of scoring chances.

That, coupled with Cincinnati’s defense allowing only 0.96 xGA at home makes be believe that Toronto may struggle to get on the board here. In fact, they have been held scoreless on the road in four of their last six matches.

Further, they generated 2.3 xG in their very first road match of the season at DC United, but over their last seven, they are averaging just 0.59!

Cincinnati remains the hottest team in the league. Just one loss on the season with a perfect 9-0 home record.

Again, hard not to want to back them to get the job done here once again. Neither team played last weekend which gives both equal time to prepare and I do think Toronto will come into this match with a decent game plan of how to slow Cincinnati down.

It may take well into the second half, but ultimately, I do believe Cincy get the job done, but if Toronto can find a way to score, I think it will be tough for Cincy to win this match so I’d rather back Under the total in a match where I think Toronto will look to take the air out of the ball.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +105

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC | Wednesday 6/21 | 7:30pm ET

NYRB -135 | Draw +265 | Charlotte +360
Asian Handicap: NYRB -0.75 | Total: 2.25

If you have been following my MLS or reading my weekly articles, you know I have been riding the Under in many NYRB matches this season and I’ve also described the Red Bulls as a ‘buy’ team. This looks like a perfect opportunity to do just that.

New York has vastly underperformed this season. The Bulls ranks 7th in xP (expected points) with 27.4 yet have only earned 19 and somehow sit outside the playoff picture.

Their defense has been fantastic though, allowing the 2nd fewest xGA per 90 minutes at just 0.98 which drops to 0.80 at home. They have allowed the 2nd fewest goals in the league with just 16, behind only Nashville’s 13.

The problem has been their offense, or lack thereof rather, as their 11 goals scored rank dead last in the league, yet they average 1.36 xG per 90 minutes which ranks 10th. In total, their 11 goals have come on a total of 22.5 xG which is unsustainable in a good way if you are a NYRB fan.

Meanwhile, Charlotte stinks defensively. They are the only team in the league that has conceded more than 30 goals, 33 to be exact, yet they sit three points above New York thanks to an offense that has scored 23 goals on 17.5 xG. Their 18.1 xP ranks 2nd fewest in the league.

This is one of those matches where purely on the surface level you might not want to back NYRB. But behind the table positions, the data is largely in the Bulls favor in every major statistical category except actual goals scored. Eventually those chances will convert into goals, and I think this is a perfect place to hop on the NYRB train.

Prediction: New York Red Bulls Moneyline (or -0.5) -135