MLS Predictions, Picks and Best Bets For 6/24/23

Betting Preview for MLS 6/24/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his June 24 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Columbus Crew vs Nashville SC and New England Revolution vs Toronto FC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Columbus Crew vs Nashville SC | 6/24/23 | 7:30pm ET

Columbus -105 | Draw +255 | Nashville +250
Asian Handicap: Columbus -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Tough spot for Nashville as they travelled to Montreal midweek on Wednesday and continue their road trip here in Columbus just three days later.

I would otherwise look to back Nashville on the Double Chance, but I don’t like the scheduling for them. However, like we saw vs Montreal, I still expect a solid defensive performance and see some value on the Under.

Despite the loss, Nashville held Montreal to less than 1.0 xG which continues their excellent defensive numbers this season. At home, Nashville allows 1.01 xGA per 90 minutes, but on the road, that drops to 0.93, the lowest average in the league and the only team under 1.0.

Nashville did concede again, however, and have now kept just two clean sheets on the road in nine matches.

They have also scored two goals just three times as they struggle to create many chances averaging a very low 0.74 xG per match and because of that, six of their nine matches have finished Under the total away from home.

Columbus meanwhile has been lights out at home, averaging 1.98 xG per match, which ranks 1st in the league, while allowing only 0.90 xGA, the 4th fewest total. That gives them the 3rd best differential at +1.08 per 90 minutes, behind only LAFC and Seattle.

It’s hard to want to fade Nashville twice in one week, but that is also the reason why it makes sense to do so.

Columbus have had their normal full week to prepare and that should allow them to find a way to win this match, but I don’t think Nashville will make it easy on them and allow many chances which will likely keep this low scoring. So I prefer the Under here.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +100

DC United vs FC Cincinnati | 6/24/23 | 7:30pm ET

DC United +115 | Draw +260 | Cincinnati +205
Asian Handicap: DC United -0.25 | Total: 2.75

While I suggested fading the team on the road and on short rest in the Columbus-Nashville match, I’m not about to get in front of the hottest team in the league, despite the tough scheduling spot.

Cincinnati has just one loss on the season so getting a head start on them is very appealing. That loss was ugly as they conceded five goals to St Louis but considering they have conceded a total of just 16 goals all season, call it a small blip on the radar.

Cincinnati has kept nine clean sheets and on only three occasions have they allowed more than one goal. They haven’t been the same offensive juggernaut away from home, but their defense has still performed well, as again, they have just that one loss.

Since that loss to St Louis, Cincinnati allowed two goals to Columbus (in a 3-2 win) but have held their other nine opponents to one goal or less.

Considering Cincinnati has been blanked just one time this season, their second game of the year coming way back on March 4, their defense is what has been consistently earning them points.

DC has just not been a good team at home with only three wins in nine matches which has them tied with the lowest haul at home in the Eastern Conference.

Their defense is hard to trust as they have kept only five clean sheets this season and over their last five matches, they have conceded ten goals including at least two in four of those five. At home, their defense hasn’t been any better keeping just two clean sheets while allowing two goals in more than half of their nine matches.

If you know me enough by now, you know I never trust backing a team with a questionable defense, especially in a favorite role.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati +0.25 -115

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC | 6/24/23 | 7:30pm ET

New England -165 | Draw +310 | Toronto +370
Asian Handicap: New England -0.75 | Total: 2.75

There are several things working in Bruce Arena’s favor for this match. First, Toronto is on the road here again on short rest having just played at Cincinnati on Wednesday, losing 0-3.

That only extends Toronto’s awful away record this season as they remain winless in nine matches outside of BMO Field. Their xG numbers have been ugly as well as they average 0.79 xG per 90 minutes on the road while allowing 1.52 xGA.

Those numbers are backed up in actual goals as well as Toronto has scored just six goals in those nine matches and have been blanked in more than half of their away matches (5 of 9), including three of their last four.

New England is one of the best home teams in the league as they remain one of just three teams without a loss owning a 6-3-0 record and +13 goal differential. Over their last six home matches, their offense has been humming scoring 16 goals including three goals in each of their last three.

The Rev average the 5th most xG per home match at 1.89 and have the 5th best differential at +0.83 per 90 minutes.

New England won the first meeting between these sides, 2-0 at Toronto back in May with xG showing a 2.0 – 1.2 tally. I expect a similar result at home with xG numbers likely even more lopsided.

Prediction: New England Revolution -0.75 -125