MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 10/4/23

Betting Advice for MLS 10/4/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his 10/4/23 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami and Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles Galaxy. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

FC Cincinnati vs NY Red Bulls | Wednesday 10/4 | 7:30pm ET

FC Cincinnati -120 | Draw +260 | NY Red Bulls +290
Asian Handicap: FC Cincinnati -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Just like that, the Under train is back on the track for NYRB as they battled it out with Chicago with both teams trying to keep pace in the playoff race.

As it stands now, New York remains three points behind 9th place for the final playoff spot, though there are three teams tied on 37 points with New York sitting on 34.

They will need some help to reach the playoffs, but it starts with a win, or at the very least, a draw here at Cincinnati.

New York’s best chance at points remains with their defense, which remains elite, ranking 2nd in the MLS allowing 1.03 xGA per match.

Offensively, they simply can’t score as they have netted 30 goals through 31 matches, ahead of only bottom of the table Toronto FC. I fully expect New York to try their damnedest to take the air out of this match.

Cincinnati will be more than fine with playing a slow-paced tight match as they are in playoff preparation mode.

They have already locked up the #1 seed in the East, but with three matches remaining, they can’t sit and rest quite yet as too much time off will only do them harm, so I expect them to come out looking for the win to keep playoff momentum going.

In the playoffs, defense will win Cincinnati the championship, so I expect a fully locked in effort to try and limit the Red Bulls chances and keep a clean sheet.

Cincinnati can score three goals without much problem and at home they have done so eight times over their last 14 matches, so that is always a worry, but with so much on the line for NYRB here, I just don’t see that happening.

This match screams an all-out defensive effort from both teams.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals +105 FanDuel

Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami | Wednesday 10/4 | 8:30pm ET

Chicago +105 | Draw +270 | Miami +215
Asian Handicap: Chicago -0.25 | Total: 2.75

It seems to be the hardest thing to predict with Miami matches isn’t the side or total, rather will Lionel Messi be on the field.

The team has been very tight-lipped when it comes to his health and why he has been missing matches. All signs pointed to normal rest and having him on the field last Wednesday as they were in the US Open Cup Final against Houston, but when he wasn’t even dressed for the match, it was clear that there was more to the story.

He once again missed the match last weekend in a draw vs NYCFC. That was his third straight game he didn’t play after he was subbed off the field in the first half of their win over Toronto on September 20.

I will say this, bookmakers do not expect him to start as he would not be seeing Chicago as favorites if he was. If news comes out that he will start, expect some significant movement in this line which will be good for our position.

Although Miami did lose the US Open Cup Final to Houston, they drew their two MLS matches without Messi at Orlando, the #2 seed in the East, and vs NYCFC.

They are more than capable of getting a result against Chicago who won their first match since the end of July at NYRB this past weekend. They were on a nine-match winless run prior to that win.

Chicago averages just 1.06 xG per match this season which ranks as the 4th fewest in the league while they allow 1.52 xGA. At home, those numbers barely change.

Considering they have scored more than one goal just one time over their last ten matches, I don’t expect them to create many chances in this match as even without Messi, Miami has been improved defensively thanks in large part to Busquets doing what he does in the midfield.

Prediction: Inter Miami +0.25 +100

As an alternative, you can play +0.5 or Double Chance at -130 and cash the full bet on a draw.

Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles Galaxy | Wednesday 10/4 | 10:30pm ET

Seattle -155 | Draw +300 | LA Galaxy +360
Asian Handicap: Seattle -0.75 | Total: 3.0

Like we have been riding NYRB Unders for much of the year, it has now been profitable to take the Over anytime the Galaxy are on the field.

Over just their last five matches, there has been a total of 29 goals scored for an average of 5.8 goals per match. But this is nothing new, at least not defensively.

The Galaxy have played 30 MLS matches this season and have allowed at least two goals in 18 of them. That has equated to a total of 54 goals, the most in the entire league.

That is obviously a big reason why they are on the outside of the playoff picture right now, six points back of the final playoff spot and in full desperation mode. They must win to have any chance at jumping up the table.

To do that, they must score goals as they clearly can’t rely on their defense. The strategy has proven effective as LA has just one loss in eight matches since the Leagues Cup break and have scored at least two goals in all but one match.

Not coincidentally, that is the only match that failed to reach at least three combined goals scored. The strategy is picking up points for them, so don’t expect them to change.

Seattle started the season very quickly and have sort of just leveled out since then. They won six of their first eight matches, picking up 19 points, but they have since collected only 27 more over their last 24 matches.

Still, that has them sitting 3rd in the West and they need to continue to win to stay in the Top-4 and earn at least one home playoff match.

Although not as drastically bad as LA’s defense, Seattle has been struggling as well. I say that as they are coming off a clean sheet against Nashville, but they had conceded at least one goal in 11 straight matches prior to that.

With as good as LA’s offense has been, they can’t believe that their defense will win them this match. Instead, I expect them on the front foot pushing for goals on LA’s leaky defense.

Bottom line, these are two defenses in poor form in a match where both teams will likely push the tempo and take some chances to try and win this match. Expect a lot of action both ways.

Prediction: Over 3.0 Goals -110 DraftKings