MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 7/1/23

Betting Advice for MLS 7/1/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his July 1 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls | 7/1/23 | 7:30pm ET

Columbus -105 | Draw +250 | NYRB +265
Asian Handicap: Columbus -0.5 | Total: 2.5

I suggested taking the Under last week as Columbus hosted Nashville in what turned out to be the right play with the Crew winning 2-0. This weekend looks like another good match to remain low scoring and I’ll echo some of the thoughts I had last week.

Columbus has been lights out at home, averaging 1.94 xG per match, which ranks 1st in the league, while allowing only 0.88 xGA, the 4th fewest total. That gives them the 2nd best differential at +1.06 per 90 minutes, behind only LAFC.

However, despite their strong offense, I don’t see NYRB giving them many good opportunities. The Red Bulls average the lowest overall xGA in the league at 0.94 per match, the only team allowing less than 1.0. On the road though that does rise to 1.14, the 4th fewest in the league, but they have conceded less, an average of just 0.89 per away match.

The Red Bulls are coming off a four-goal performance over Atlanta last weekend, which certainly seemed due considering how much they have underperformed in terms of actual goals scored compared to their xG this season.

Still, even with that match, New York has scored just 17 goals on 25.5 xG. Because of that, combined with their strong defense, New York has a league-low 5-14 Over-Under record and a perfect Under record away from home as all nine of their road matches have finished Under 2.5 goals.

I expect both defenses to shine in this match which will likely be void of many good chances either way.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -115

CF Montreal vs New York City FC | 7/1/23 | 7:30pm ET

Montreal +120 | Draw +240 | NYCFC +205
Asian Handicap: Montreal -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Montreal got off to a horrible start to the season with just one win and six losses in their first seven matches. However, since then they have lost just three times in 12 matches which all came on the road at quality opponents Cincinnati, NY Red Bulls and Philadelphia. During that run, they have kept a remarkable eight clean sheets.

At home, they have been unbeatable as they have won six straight matches without conceding a goal. In total, they have conceded just three goals in eight matches and own a 2-6 Over-Under record.

On the flip side, New York City, only two seasons removed from being crowned MLS Cup Champions, are struggling to score and can’t buy a win on the road. Overall, they are currently on an 11-game winless run, scoring a total of nine goals while being held scoreless four times.

On the road, they are creating a mere 0.83 xG per match while scoring even less, just eight times through 11 matches. Their defense has been decent, allowing more than one goal just three times and thus they have a 2-9 Over-Under record away from Yankee Stadium.

All signs seem to point to Montreal continuing their strong home form while holding New York City to very few chances and possibly, another clean sheet.

Prediction: CF Montreal ML (or -0.5) +120

Toronto FC vs Real Salt Lake | 7/1/23 | 7:30pm ET

Toronto +105 | Draw +265 | Real Salt Lake +215
Asian Handicap: Toronto -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Salt Lake has historically been a team you bet on at home with their increased homefield advantage due to visiting teams struggling to playing in elevation. But on the road, they didn’t travel well and were a good team to fade. However, this season, that has not been the case.

When they season began, it appeared that trend was going to continue as RSL lost three of their first four away matches, but since, they have gone unbeaten in nine straight away from home in all competitions (six MLS and three US Open Cup). Overall, they have lost just two of their last 17 matches dating back to April.

I faded Toronto last week at New England mostly because of how poor their road form has been. While they have been better at home, it’s not been significant with just two wins in their last nine and a total of just three on the season. Those three wins are the only wins Toronto has in 21 matches in all competitions. I usually consider xG data when breaking down matches, but in this case, I’m looking past it.

RSL has a -0.69 xG differential on the road but much of that came in those first four matches where they averaged a -1.35 differential per 90 minutes.

Since however, they are averaging only a -0.25 differential but are still finding ways to earn points with four wins and two draws in MLS action.

Prediction: Real Salt Lake +0.25 -105