MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 7/12/23

Betting Advice for MLS 7/12/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his July 12 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including New England Revolution vs Atlanta United and Los Angeles FC vs St Louis City SC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United | 7/12/23 | 7:30pm ET

New England -115 | Draw +260 | Atlanta +265
Asian Handicap: New England -0.5 | Total: 3.0

Everyone is playing on short rest this week as the league crams in another Match Day ahead of the month-long Leagues Cup Tournament coming up.

So that means both teams are on short rest, but Atlanta will now be on the road again after winning 1-0 at Montreal on Saturday. I think we may see some tired legs from them against a New England team that has been on a scoring frenzy.

That win at Montreal was only Atlanta’s second road win this season. They won their first away match at Charlotte but were winless in their last nine road games until Saturday.

Defense is where they had been struggling, allowing 22 goals over those nine matches including six of them with at least two goals. Though their offense hasn’t been that great either as they scored only ten goals in those same nine away matches and only twice did they net at least two goals.

I previewed New England’s match with NYRB over the weekend suggesting we would see both teams get on the scoresheet.

Much of that was because of their offense which has been excellent this season scoring 36 goals which ranks 4th in the league. Like most MLS teams, much of that has come at home where they have netted 23 including scoring at least two in seven of ten matches.

Overall, the Rev have been scoring a lot as of late. In their last eight matches they have scored 17 goals including six of those games netting at least twice. I like them to do so again here against an Atlanta side who are likely to have some fatigue.

For what it’s worth, I also think New England ML -115 is also a good play.

Prediction: New England Revolution Team Total Over 1.5 Goals -145 DraftKings

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union | 7/12/23 | 8:30pm ET

Nashville +110 | Draw +245 | Philadelphia +255
Asian Handicap: Nashville -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Big time meeting of two of best teams in the league as Nashville looks to avoid back-to-back losses while Philadelphia tries to not to lose three straight games for the first time this season.

Nashville SC has been playing great at home all season with an 8-2-1 record and 21:6 goal differential but have been even better of late, as they are currently on a six-game winning streak scoring 16 goals while allowing just four. During that same span they have averaged 2.48 xG per match while allowing only 0.98.

Philadelphia, after a slow start to the season, which you could attribute to their scheduling overload between MLS and Champions League duties, had just begun to remind us of the team that made it to the MLS Cup Final last year.

After being eliminated by LAFC in the semifinals, Philly went on a seven-game unbeaten run with six wins and a draw and quickly shot back up the Eastern Conference table. However, they now have just one win over their last five matches with one draw and three losses.

In those five matches, they created more than 1.0 xG just one time, however, their defense was still performing by the same metric, allowing 1.0 xGA or fewer in four of five matches as well.

This is a very important match for both teams as they get ready to head into the Leagues Cup break. With neither offense clicking right now while both defenses continue to do their thing, this match should be tight without many big chances coming either way.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -110 FanDuel

Los Angeles FC vs St Louis City SC | 7/12/23 | 10:30pm ET

LAFC -195 | Draw +350 | St Louis +425
Asian Handicap: LAFC -1.0 | Total: 3.25

It’s hard not to think of LAFC and immediately think of offense. It’s how they won their first ever MLS Cup last season. This year is a bit different though. There is a lot going on.

LAFC competed in the CONCACAF Champions League trying to follow in the footsteps of Seattle as the first MLS team to win the competition last year. They got close, making it to the final before losing to Club Leon from Liga MX. That run affected their MLS results in a negative way.

Then the international break came and LAFC lost some players, most notably the league-leading goal scorer at the time, Denis Bouanga.

Fast forward to now, and currently Aaron Long is still missing as he is competing in the Gold Cup for team USA, plus they have a couple notable absences with injury in Murillo and Palencia.

I say all of that just to make the point that it’s been hard for LAFC to get any real cohesiveness this season and it has shown recently with just two wins in their last 11 matches in all competitions.

Even at home they have just one win in their last six. They have also scored a total of just four goals in those six home matches and were blanked three times.

I seem to say it every week, I’m not a believer in St Louis, at least not in the sense that they will make a deep run in the playoffs, but there always seems to be a reason to back them, or at least trust that they will keep a match close, which I believe they will here.

St Louis’ defense has been playing much better of late as they have won three straight matches allowing a total of just one goal along the way, though Toronto, Colorado and San Jose are not the scariest offenses to face. Still, it will have them confident facing LAFC who they will likely setup defensively against to try and contain the potential of LAFC’s roster.

That, combined with the fact that LAFC are not flying high with confidence right now, has me believing this match will be much lower scoring than oddsmakers are offering up.

Prediction: Under 3.25 Goals -125 DraftKings