MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 7/15/23

Betting Advice for MLS 7/15/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his July 15 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Atlanta United vs Orlando City SC and New England Revolution vs DC United. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Atlanta United vs Orlando City SC | 7/15/23 | 7:30pm ET

Atlanta -105 | Draw +275 | Orlando +240
Asian Handicap: Atlanta -0.5 | Total: 2.75

Be wary of tired legs this weekend as the MLS crams in its final Matchday before the Leagues Cup break. Tired legs mean less defensive effort and more goal-scoring chances. I generally shy away from taking many Overs during the season, but when the opportunity is there, I’ll pounce.

This will be the third game in seven days for Atlanta which will likely affect them defensively, not that they have been great in that department to begin with.

Atlanta has conceded 37 goals which is the 2nd most in the league behind only Charlotte. However, they still sit a respectable 6th in the table as their offense has been excellent scoring 41 goals, which is also the 2nd most in the league, behind only Columbus.

Clearly that means they have played to a lot of Overs as they rank #1 in the league with a 16-7 Over-Under record including 8-3 at home. Atlanta has kept six clean sheets this year but have only been held off the scoresheet twice and never at home.

Orlando started off the season with three straight clean sheets but have only kept five since. They do have the benefit of not playing a midweek match, so they will be the more rested team, but it seems unlikely they keep Atlanta off the board as nobody has been able to do so at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Orlando is coming off back-to-back away matches in which they were held scoreless, but in between they netted seven goals in two home matches, so their confidence should still be up.

Before that, Orlando was only held scoreless one other time on away from home. Atlanta isn’t a team to limit chances, so it seems unlikely that streak continues again this weekend, especially with some tired legs from the home side.

Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals -120 DraftKings

CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC | 7/15/23 | 7:30pm ET

CF Montreal +120 | Draw +250 | Charlotte +200
Asian Handicap: Montreal -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Montreal has been a confusing team this season. One win and six losses to start the season. Then they win seven of their next 11 matches with all seven wins coming with a clean sheet. Now, they are winless in their last four matches and haven’t scored a single goal. However, I see this as a good opportunity to grab a win before the break.

All of Montreal’s success has come at home this season. While they have lost each of their last two home matches by same 0-1 scoreline to Atlanta and NYCFC, that snapped a run of six straight clean sheet wins. Their defense has been excellent at Saputo Stadium allowing only five goals in ten matches.

Charlotte is not a team I’m worried about getting many chances in this match. They have averaged 1.03 xG on the road this season but over their last four, that dropped to a paltry 0.68 on an average of a crazy low 5.75 shots per match. Yet, they have scored five goals in those four matches on a total of only 2.7 xG.

Overall, Charlotte has played to a surprising five straight draws including a 0-0 draw against this same Montreal side in the reverse fixture at home. But again, they have been outperforming their xG data scoring a total of eight goals on 4.6 xG over those five matches. That is unsustainable and if history is any indication, Montreal is unlikely to afford them many chances.

Bottom line, Montreal allows an average of 1.02 xGA at home while Charlotte allows 1.62 on the road. I’ll take the better defense getting a nice + money price.

Prediction: CF Montreal Moneyline (or -0.5) +120 DraftKings

New England Revolution vs DC United | 7/15/23 | 7:30pm ET

New England +105 | Draw +245 | DC United +235
Asian Handicap: New England -0.5 | Total: 2.75

I think this is another opportunity to jump on the Over. New England has been red hot offensively scoring at least two goals in five of their last six matches and seven of their last nine. At home they have scored at least two in five straight and on the season, have scored at least two in eight of 11.

Defensively, they haven’t been the sharpest as they have conceded in six straight matches. Going back a little further, they have conceded 19 goals over their last 11 matches keeping just one clean sheet.

During that same run, only one match has failed to reach at least three goals scored. Overall, they have averaged 1.75 xG at home this season which ranks 4th in the league.

DC is on a nice offensive run as well, though not as strong as New England, they have scored 16 goals over their last ten matches and were only blanked once during that stretch.

Over their last nine matches they have allowed 14 goals including allowing at least two goals on six different occasions. Because of that, DC is on a 10-2 run of matches finishing over 2.5 goals.

New England won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in March and for what it’s worth, I like them to win this one again. Including that match, four of the last five meetings between these teams have finished with at least three goals.

Two hot offenses plus tired legs on the side of New England playing their third match in eight days should lead to yet another over in this series.

Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals -105 DraftKings