MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 7/8/23

Betting Advice for MLS 7/8/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his July 8 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution and Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution | 7/8/23 | 7:30pm ET

NYRB -120 | Draw +260 | New England +295
Asian Handicap: NYRB -0.5 | Total: 2.5

I’ve covered plenty of Red Bull matches this season, usually riding with the Under as they had created plenty of goal-scoring chances but just couldn’t convert them. Over their last few matches though, they seem to have turned the tide.

In their first 17 matches, New York scored just 11 goals on 23.1 xG which was the biggest underperformance in the league.

However, over their last three matches, they have scored 7 goals on 4.0 xG. While it’s a small sample size, it could be just the momentum this teams needs to start making a playoff push.

Similarly, New York’s defense had been fantastic, allowing just 13 goals over their first 16 matches and only once did they allow more than one goal. But in their last four matches they have allowed seven goals with three of those matches conceding at least two.

Now the face a New England side who have been great at finding the net all season scoring 35 goals which ranks 4th in the league. The Rev have also been conceding a lot, especially lately, as they have allowed 16 goals over their last nine matches, keeping just one clean sheet along the way.

Finally, while the series history between these sides doesn’t necessarily pertain to the current squads, it is worth noting that seven of the last nine meetings have seen both teams get on the scoresheet and going back further, 21 of the last 29 have had both teams score.

Prediction: Both Teams to Score (-115) FanDuel

Toronto FC vs St Louis City SC | 7/8/23 | 7:30pm ET

Toronto +155 | Draw +245 | St Louis +155
Asian Handicap: Pick’em +0 | Total: 2.75

I’ve voiced my opinion that I’m not a true believer of St Louis, but here we are now, nearly 2/3 of the way through the season and St Louis continues to sit atop the Eastern Conference table. The concern I have is that their -0.08 xG differential per 90 minutes is much more telling of the strength of this team than their actual record. That differential ranks 16th in the league which should be a team fighting for a playoff position.

Usually those are signs of a team that is likely to regress, and a team I would look to fade before we miss our opportunity. However, this looks like a spot to bet on St Louis and may be the last time I suggest doing so.

This is all about Toronto and the fact that they are basically fielding a B team for this match. Here is the full list of absences:

Michael Bradley, Adama Diomande, Christian, Gutierrez, Matt Hedges, Sigurd Rosted, Victor Vazquez are all out with injury. Sean Johnson, Jonathan Osorio and Tomas Romero are missing on international duty in the Gold Cup.

Add in Federico Bernardeschi who is suspended due to his red card vs Orlando and you have a team that is in a dire situation.

Finally, there is Lorenzo Insigne who is injured, but not yet confirmed out, but most importantly, he wants out of Toronto as he is working a deal to move to the Saudi Arabian league to get paid. I would be very surprised if TFC had him in the starting XI for this match.

Toronto has averaged a -0.38 xG differential this season, with their best roster, well behind St Louis. Scary to think how ugly that could get with their B squad, but if last match was any indication, 0.2 – 2.5 vs Orlando, they could be in for another long match here.

Prediction: St. Louis City SC +0 (DRAW NO BET) -110 FanDuel

Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC | 7/8/23 | 8:30pm ET

Chicago +125 | Draw +230 | Nashville +200
Asian Handicap: Chicago -0.25 | Total: 2.5

The simple things in life are often the best. Taking the team with the 3rd fewest xGA in the league vs the team with the 3rd highest xGA is simple. However, taking that same team getting a head start is perfectly simple.

Aside from their strong xG numbers, Nashville is not allowing many actual goals either. After back-to-back losses, Nashville righted the ship by beating DC United 2-0 last week and prior to their two-game skid, Nashville was unbeaten in ten straight.

They have held their opponents to one goal or fewer in 19 of 21 matches this season, only twice allowing two goals. Compare that to Chicago who has allowed at least two goals in half of their matches this season, 10 of 20.

If we flip to the offensive side of the ball, Chicago has scored 26 goals which isn’t terrible, but it’s masked in the fact that they have scored three goals on four separate occasions. What’s crazy to say, is that they only won one of those four matches as their defense simply can’t be trusted.

Aside from those four games, Chicago has scored 14 goals in 16 matches, and I simply don’t believe Nashville will allow three goals to Chicago. Remember, keep it simple.

Prediction: Nashville SC +0.25 -125