MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 8/30/23

Betting Advice for MLS 8/30/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his 8/30 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union and San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union | Wednesday 8/30 | 7:30pm ET

Toronto +225 | Draw +250 | Philadelphia +110
Asian Handicap: Philadelphia -0.25 | Total: 2.75

I’ve said it many times this season, the worst trend to follow in the MLS is taking a road favorite.  First, they are rare.  There have only been 11 occurrences this season which is now more than two-thirds completed.  Then, the results of those road favorites?  An ugly 1-10 against the spread.

So, what do I recommend here?  Well, taking the road favorite of course!  This is a match I’m just willing to buck that trend all together as there is no way I want anything to do with Toronto right now.

TFC has lost ten straight matches in all competitions heading into this game.  They were blanked in eight of those matches, scoring a total of just three goals while conceding 23.  And while this streak is obviously bad, it’s not like Toronto had a good stretch this season as they have just three wins in 28 matches all year.

Nobody generates fewer chances per match as Toronto who average only 0.92 xG.  Watching them play, it looks like they can’t get to the offseason soon enough.

I’ve covered plenty of Union matches this season and I always start off the same way.  They weren’t great in the beginning of the season because of Champions League, yada, yada, yada, but now they are playing much better and look just like the team that was within a few minutes of an MLS Cup title last season.

Since finishing 3^rd in the Leagues Cup, Philly returned with a 3-1 road win over DC United in a match that was never in question as Philadelphia raced out to a 3-0 lead and only conceded one late.  As they have now taken hold of the #2 position in the East and try to track down Cincinnati for the top spot, it’s imperative that they take advantage of these ‘layup’ matches.

For all those reasons, getting a + money price is just too good to pass up.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA ML or -0.5 +110 DraftKings

Shop both the ML and Asian Handicap of -0.5 as they are the same bet.

Charlotte FC vs Orlando City SC | Wednesday 8/30 | 7:30pm ET

Charlotte +135 | Draw +245 | Orlando +185
Asian Handicap: Charlotte -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Charlotte is coming off a huge win beating the reigning MLS champs LAFC 2-1 at home last weekend.  The question is, can they follow that up with the same intensity just a couple of days later?  I’m betting against it.

I see this as a letdown spot for them.  That was clearly a big match and an important win, but it was only their 4^th home win of the season in 12 matches.  With the MLS having one of the biggest home field advantages in soccer, that is just not good enough and clearly why they are on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in.

Even at home, Charlotte has a negative xG differential of -0.32, one of only four teams in the league that sit in the negative at home.

Surprisingly, Charlotte made a run in the Leagues Cup before they ran into the eventual champions, Miami, losing in the quarterfinal 0-4.  But now returning to MLS play and coming off a win, I don’t think that form will continue, or at least, they are not a team I want to be laying any goals with.

Orlando has been tough to beat all season.  I suggested backing them over the weekend which they were able to beat STL 2-1.  They have only lost six times in 25 MLS matches this season including four losses in 14 away games.

One of their six losses this year, you guessed it, this very Charlotte team as they lost 1-2 at home back in March, despite xG showing a 1.5 – 0.7 advantage for the Lions.  That was obviously a long time ago though.

Letdown spot, revenge angle, and just pure data all suggest to grab the head start here on Orlando to at least walk away with a draw, so back them with confidence on Wednesday.

TAKE ORLANDO +0.25 -125 DraftKings

San Jose Earthquakes at Los Angeles Galaxy | Wednesday 8/30 | 10:30pm ET

San Jose +100 | Draw +265 | LA Galaxy +235
Asian Handicap: San Jose -0.5 | Total: 3.0

If history tells us anything, it’s to expect some fireworks when these two teams meet.  This will be the third meeting between the sides already this season as they played to a 2-2 draw in San Jose in July and the Galaxy won 2-1 in Los Angeles back in May.

Those results have followed a recent trend between these teams that has seen plenty of goals as each of the last six meetings has finished with at least three goals scored and is obviously a big reason we are seeing the total set high at 3.0.

If you believe we will see goals again, as I do, you can use the combo or same game parlay of Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals to essentially buy down the total as its unlikely all the scoring will come from one side.  Each of those last six matches has seen this parlay hit.

San Jose allows 1.52 xGA per match while the Galaxy allow 1.55, which rises to 1.72 away from home.

The concern is both teams do struggle offensively at times, especially LA who have been blanked in seven of 12 away matches this year.  But considering we are looking at two leaky defenses, both offenses should get plenty of chances.

The Galaxy need points in a bad way and I expect them to do everything they can to get them.  That means go for goals as they know they can’t rely on their defense to get the job done.  That should allow this match to play open and give plenty of opportunities each way.

TAKE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE + OVER 2.5 -120 FanDuel

You can find this Under Same Game Parlay tabs at DraftKings or make the parlay yourself at FanDuel.