MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice For 9/20/23

Betting Advice for MLS 9/20/23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his 9/20/23 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami vs Toronto FC. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati | Wednesday 9/20 | 7:30pm ET

CF Montreal +130 | Draw +240 | Cincinnati +190
Asian Handicap: Cincinnati +0.25 | Total: 2.75

Not a huge fan of playing road teams midweek as the short turnaround is certainly a disadvantage, but Cincinnati isn’t traveling too far having just played in Philadelphia on Saturday.

Additionally, they will also will be coming here with a nice boost of confidence as they seemed all but dead trailing Philadelphia 0-2 at halftime before battling back to steal in a draw in the City of Brotherly Love.
Cincy has played on the road on short rest on four prior occasions this season and have a strong 3-1 record beating Atlanta, NY Red Bulls and New York City with their lone loss coming at DC United.

Overall, on the road, Cincinnati has been excellent with just three losses and because they have not been a favorite in any of their away matches, they are 10-3-1 against the spread.

CF Montreal has been good at home with a 9-1-4 record as they are allowing just 0.95 xGA per match. However, over their last eight home matches, including two Leagues Cup games, they have just two wins along with four losses and two draws including failing to beat Chicago in a 0-0 draw this past weekend.

Their defense is what wins Montreal games and although they did keep a clean sheet vs Chicago, they conceded six goals in their prior two matches to Columbus and New York City FC.

Offensively, Montreal has scored only 28 goals in 28 matches which is the third fewest in the Conference and the lowest of any team holding onto a playoff spot. In fact, only Toronto has a worse goal differential than Montreal’s -12.

Considering Cincinnati has allowed the 2nd fewest goals in the Conference, I can’t imagine Montreal will get a ton of quality chances while at the same time, Cininnati has only been held scoreless four times this season. One goal could be all they need to earn a result from this match.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati +0.25 -120 DraftKings

Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire | Wednesday 9/20 | 7:30pm ET

Columbus -185 | Draw +340 | Chicago +400
Asian Handicap: Columbus -1.0 | Total: 3.25

I’m generally not a huge fan of laying a full goal in the MLS as there really isn’t enough talent disparity from the top to the bottom to justify it. But I do love Columbus in this spot, so I’m looking at a different way to play them.

Columbus is returning home after three straight away matches which will be a nice boost to this team as they have been fantastic at home with a 10-3-1 record plus an additional 2-1-0 record in the Leagues Cup.

They have won by multiple goals in eight of their ten matches and have kept six clean sheets along the way including both of their home matches since returning from the Leagues Cup break.

Chicago has been in a horrible funk offensively. They haven’t scored a goal in four straight matches against the Galaxy, Vancouver, DC United and Montreal, hardly the cream of the crop in the MLS.

The only goal they have scored since the Leagues Cup break came in their first match, a 1-3 loss vs Orlando, and over all five matches, they have averaged just 0.88 xG per game.

Looking at their full body of work on the road, Chicago has been held scoreless in half of their away matches this season, seven times, though they have managed two 0-0 draws so they didn’t lose all of those.

Columbus has scored in every home match though this season, and multiple goals in all but three matches, and considering they have scored at least two goals in eight of their last nine overall, it’s hard to imagine they won’t do that again here.

Finally, Columbus’ has gotten off to fast starts at home as they have led in nine of 14 matches, including both since the Leagues Cup break. With Chicago not scoring at all right now, I love the plus money price we can get on the Crew bagging a first half goal which is likely all they need to win the first half and cash our bet.

Prediction: Columbus Crew First Half +105 DraftKings

Shop both the ML and Asian Handicap of -0.5 as both bets are the same.

Inter Miami vs Toronto FC | Wednesday 9/20 | 7:30pm ET

Miami -275 | Draw +425 | Toronto +550
Asian Handicap: Miami -1.5 | Total: 3.25

OK, I know I just said I don’t like to lay a goal in the MLS, but this is a goal-and-a-half, so, there ya go.
I previewed Miami’s matchup at Atlanta over the weekend and loved getting the +150 price tag on them. Of course, that was with the assumption that Messi would be playing which obviously was not the case.

They chose to let him rest and Miami lost their first match in any competition since he joined the team.
While I don’t have proof that he will be in the starting lineup for this match, I’m 90% confident his intention was to skip the away match on artificial turf and return to the lineup here to continue Miami’s push for the postseason.

Miami now sits seven points behind with seven matches remaining though they have at least one game in hand on the two teams they are chasing for the 8th or 9th seed.

As much as this is a play on Miami, it’s equally a fade against Toronto, the worst team in the league. TFC has just one win in their last 15 matches including two Leagues Cup games, which oddly, came against Philadelphia, a team you wouldn’t expect them to beat.

However, that 3-1 win was one of only two occurrences in those 15 matches in which they scored more than one goal, while they were held scoreless in nine.

Away from home, TFC has not won a single match with four draws and nine losses. They have been blanked in eight of 13 away matches including each of their last three while allowing at least two goals in four of their last five.

In their most recent road match, they allowed a whopping 31 shots to Columbus.
This has the makings of a 3-0 or 3-1 win and I’ll grab the plus price while it’s still available.

Prediction: Inter Miami -1.5 +120 FanDuel

At FanDuel, this is a play on the 3-way spread of -1, which is the same as a -1.5 Handicap. Because you can bet on a draw of -1 (aka, win by exactly one goal), Miami needs to win by two to win the wager, which is the same as -1.5.