MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview March 30

MLS Match Betting Preview for March 30

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his March 30 MLS match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati and Toronto FC vs Sporting Kansas City. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have high or low scoring matches? Read his MLS betting preview Now

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Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati | Saturday March 30 | 7:30pm ET

Charlotte +120 | Draw +225 | Cincinnati +210
Asian Handicap: Charlotte -0.25 | Total: 2.5

Love getting a head start on Cincinnati here. I mean this team won the Supporters’ Shield last season and there is no reason to think they can’t do it again.

While there are a few new pieces on the team, they seem to be playing together like they have for years and their defense has been fantastic, despite a busy schedule.

All MLS teams that have been competing in the Champions Cup have struggled at times already this season. All those except Cincinnati.

While they haven’t won every match, they remain unbeaten as their defense has been lights out, allowing just two goals in five matches, keeping three clean sheets, and leading the league allowing an average of just 0.74 xGA per match.

I’ll admit they haven’t found their offensive footing yet as they have scored only five goals thus far, but with the reigning MVP, Lucho Acosta, all they need is just one moment of brilliance from him to earn a result.

Now that they have been eliminated from the Champions Cup at the hands of a strong Monterrey side, I believe they will only get better from here on.

The slight concern is that Charlotte has played well at home both this season and last. They are a mediocre team as evidenced by their 9th place result last season which earned them a play-in match for the playoffs, but they were ousted by the Red Bulls losing 2-5 on the road.

However, at home, Charlotte lost only three times all last season and they are off to a 2-0 start this season, including beating MLS Cup Champions Columbus last weekend, though that was aided by a red card handed to Columbus midway through the first half.

Ultimately though, I don’t trust Charlotte’s offense to do enough here to earn a win. That Columbus match was their first time scoring more than one goal this season and they have averaged 9.6 shots per match which is the 4th fewest in the league. I can’t imagine they will find many more chances against Cincinnati’s stout defense.

MLS Prediction: Cincinnati FC +0.25 (-110)

DC United vs CF Montreal | Saturday March 30 | 7:30pm ET

DC United -145 | Draw +275 | Montreal +330
Asian Handicap: DC United -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Montreal has opened the season on the road, and they still have two more matches before they finally get to play their home opener.

They good news is they are fully rested as they had last weekend off so they have had two weeks to prepare for this match, and just a little extra time to contemplate what went wrong in the final ten minutes against Chicago in that meltdown.

Despite that loss, Montreal has done well on their road trip with seven points earned from four matches including wins at Miami and at Dallas.

They were held scoreless in their opener at Orlando, a 0-0 draw, but have since scored eight goals in their last three matches and are averaging 1.88 xG on the season.

Similarly on the defensive side, they kept that clean sheet against Orlando, but have since conceded seven goals over their last three and are allowing an average of 1.68 xGA.

There were three PKs scored in their 7-goal thriller vs Chicago, but even without those, each of their last three matches have reached at least three goals scored.

DC has settled for three draws already in five matches as the team struggles defensively, conceding at least one goal in four of five for a total of eight goals averaging 1.52 xGA per match.

Aside from their 0-0 draw against Cincinnati, they have also scored in each of their other four matches, a total of eight goals and have averaged 2.06 xG, though that was padded from their opener against New England where the Rev were handed an early first half red card and DC went on to generate over 4.0 xG in the match.

With both teams struggling defensively, I think we see plenty of chances both ways and considering each of the last four meetings between these teams in DC has finished Over the total, I like that trend to continue this weekend.

MLS Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals (-115)

Toronto FC vs Sporting Kansas City | Saturday March 30 | 7:30pm ET

Toronto +145 | Draw +225 | Kansas City +165
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 2.5

Not fully sure how good this Toronto team is yet, but for a team that allowed the most goals in the Conference last season to one that has allowed only two thus far, that’s a major improvement. The bad news though is that Lorenzo Insigne suffered another injury last weekend and will be out for this match at least. But for what I’m going to suggest here, that shouldn’t be an issue.

TFC is not a high-scoring team but with an improved defense they have three wins and a draw through five matches despite scoring more than one goal just one time this season.

They have kept four clean sheets already including both of their home matches, a 1-0 win over Charlotte and a 2-0 win over Atlanta last week.

They are allowing 1.08 xGA per match which drops to 0.65 at home. SKC is of a similar style, though I don’t necessarily trust their defense quite as much and perfect evidence of that is last weekend where they allowed three goals in ten minutes to the Galaxy. Still, that was the first match in which they allowed more than one goal this season, and allowing only 1.24 xGA is solid.

Offensively, they too struggle to score creating 1.04 xG per match and only 0.40 on the road where they played to a 1-1 draw at Houston and a 0-0 draw at LAFC.

What slightly concerns me is that last week they changed from their normal 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1 which certainly appeared to help them be more creative offensively as both of their best weapons, Pulido and Agada were on the field at the same time.

However, I’m hoping that was simply because of the players that were available to Vermes, with several away on international duty, and they revert back to their comfortable 4-3-3.

Bottom line we have two teams that aren’t strong offensively, playing ‘just good enough’ defense to keep this game low-scoring. Four of Toronto’s five matches have finished Under the total and three of Kansas City’s have. This seems like a 1-0 or 1-1 finish.

MLS Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals Scored (-115)

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