MLS Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview March 23

MLS Match Betting Preview for March 23

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his March 23 MLS match betting preview with predictions and best bets including New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his MLS betting preview now!

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire | March 23 | 1:00pm ET

New England -115 | Draw +270 | Chicago +265
Asian Handicap: New England -0.5 | Total: 2.75

International break has affected New England three-fold with Esmir Bajraktarevic, Noel Buck and Henrich Ravas all missing for the home side.

Bajraktarevic, at only 19 years old, has been a big offensive piece of the puzzle for the Rev having contributed a goal and three assists already, playing large minutes in each of New England’s eight games between the Champions Cup and MLS.

Buck at an even younger 18 years of age, isn’t as big of a loss, but has contributed solid minutes this season, while New England’s starting keeper Henrick Ravas, who has played every minute of all eight matches, is the biggest missing piece.

For Chicago, only the Swiss veteran Xherdan Shaqiri will be away for international duty and I’m not sure it’s as big a loss for this team as it was a couple years ago.

In 2022 Shaqiri contributed 19 G+A but his production dropped significantly last season with just 10. He has one goal thus far through four matches and no assists.

New England has lost all four games to open the season, so it is certainly hard to want to back this team, especially with several absences as well.

Their progress in the Champions Cup certainly has played a factor as they have struggled to play both midweek and the weekend each of the first four weeks of the season. The bad news for their MLS results, they progressed another round and now face Club America in the quarterfinals.

That’s two more midweek games against one of the best Clubs in North America. The good news is, they don’t have a midweek match this week, so this may be their best chance to grab a win for a while.

The issue. New England has conceded 10 goals with a 2.35 xGA average thus far. I’m not ready to trust them to win, but I do trust them to both score and concede.

Meanwhile, Chicago ripped off three goals in the final 10 minutes to come from behind and win 4-3 over Montreal last weekend. Of course, that was aided by a red card handed to Montreal in the 83’ minute, but still, a win is a win and confidence will come along with it.

Chicago has both scored and conceded in all four matches thus far, scoring eight, while conceding nine, as all four have reached at least three goals scored.

They have averaged 1.68 xG while allowing 1.83 xGA. That includes a tough schedule having played Philadelphia, Columbus and Cincinnati, three of the top four teams in the East from last season, including the MLS Cup Champions.

They scored in all three of those games so they can certainly score against a reeling New England defense.

MLS Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals (-125)

New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami | March 23 | 2:00pm ET

Red Bulls +120 | Draw +245 | Miami +195
Asian Handicap: NYRB -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Lionel Messi will not be playing in this match as he nurses injury and subsequently misses international duty with Argentina.

Despite his absence, the rest of the former-Barcelona squad is available including Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets and Luis Suarez who is in red-hot form scoring six goals and adding five assists already in just seven matches between MLS and Champions Cup.

Of course, it helps when Messi draws so much attention and he can slip the ball to a free Suarez, but still, he scored two goals against DC last weekend with Messi on the sideline.

Aside from the expectation the Miami will get on the board here, considering they have scored in all seven matches for a total of 18 goals thus far, their defense has been leaky, allowing 1.64 xGA in their four MLS matches.

Also worth noting is that Miami will be missing their keeper, Drake Callender for international duty.
Speaking of international call-ups, NYRB has a host of them this weekend including their starting keeper as well, Carlos Coronel.

In addition, Daniel Edelman who has played every minute in midfield thus far, same with Noah Eile in defense, and John Tolkin, opposite of Eile, who has played the full 90’ in each of the last three matches.

That is a lot of missing pieces on the defensive side of the ball and certainly worrisome when playing Miami’s lethal attack, with or without Messi.

Emil Forsberg who transferred from RB Leipzig this season is the only offensive player missing for NYRB.
Phew. OK, all the absentee information is basically to say that I’m worried about NYRB defensively, especially coming off a match in which they allowed three goals to an attack-minded Columbus side, like Miami, and thus, I don’t trust them to keep Miami’s attack at bay.

At the same time, Miami has already proven inept defensively and without their keeper, I’m sure the Red Bulls will find a way to get on the board themselves. This seems like a match in which we see plenty of chances both ways.

MLS Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals (-105)

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC | March 23 | 7:30pm ET

FC Cincinnati -105 | Draw +235 | NYCFC +265
Asian Handicap: Cincinnati -0.5 | Total: 2.5

The extra miles of playing in the Champions Cup can have an effect on even the best teams in the league, but Cincy has navigated it better than most with two wins and two draws to start the season.

The good news for them, well in terms of their MLS outlook, is they were eliminated by Monterrey and can now solely focus on MLS.

They are coming off a 2-1 comeback win over New England last weekend in which they decided to give the reigning MVP, Luciano Acosta, some rest after their battle with Monterrey just a few days prior.

Well, they trailed 0-1 at halftime, then Acosta came on in the second half and scored a goal and assisted on another. Safe to say the MVP is important to this team and he should be on the field for all 90’ here.

On the defensive side of the ball, despite the busy schedule, Cincinnati has picked up where they left off last season as they have conceded just two goals through their first four matches, allowing an average of 0.80 xGA which ranks 2nd in the league.

That doesn’t bode well for NYCFC who have scored just three goals in four matches thus far. They are coming off their first win of the season, a 2-1 home victory over Toronto, but were held scoreless in both away matches to start the season, losing 0-1 at Charlotte and 0-2 at St Louis, averaging a mere 0.50 xG.

They will also be missing Mounsef Bakrar who has logged more minutes this season than any other offensive player as he is away on international duty.

I am not confident we will see City create many chances in this match which should allow Cincy to win this one comfortably.

MLS Prediction: FC Cincinnati ML or -0.5 (-105)