MLS Predictions, Picks and Best Bets Saturday, May 20

Betting Preview for MLS May 20

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Saturday, May 20 MLS predictions and picks around key matches including New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal and Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal | 7:30pm ET

NYRB -140 | Draw +245 | Montreal +380
Asian Handicap: NYRB -0.75 | Total: 2.25

And the beat goes on as we continue cashing Unders in Red Bulls matches and there is no reason to jump off the train right now. NYRB played out a 0-0 draw at Toronto on Wednesday to now make it 12 of 13 matches that have finished Under the total for the Red Bulls.

New York owns the best defense in the league according to xG allowing a ridiculously low 0.77 xGA per 90 minutes and a total of just 11 goals.

Offensively, they are creating chances, now a total of 16.3 xG on the season, but they aren’t converting those chances as they have scored just eight goals. I’ll continue to ride the Under in their matches until they do so.

Montreal is averaging only 0.98 xG per match, one of four team in the MLS averaging less than 1.0. They started off the season in the worst way with six losses in their first seven matches, failing to score in all six losses.

They then flipped the script with four straight clean sheet wins, all by the exact same 2-0 scoreline before losing 0-3 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. Because of that, only one of their 12 matches has seen both teams score while eight have finished Under the total.

This match features the league’s best defense vs the league’s (tied for) 3rd worst offense. I don’t see Montreal creating many chances in this game and the Red Bulls are more than comfortable winning this match 1-0.

Again, bottom line, I’ll continue to play this Under until it loses.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -120

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution | 7:30pm ET

Philadelphia -105 | Draw +265 | New England +245
Asian Handicap: Philadelphia -0.5 | Total: 2.5

This has all the makings of a tight, low-scoring affair. Two very good teams with strong defenses that will make space hard to find.

New England sit 2nd in the East with a 7-3-2 record and 19:11 goal differential. Those 11 goals allowed represent the 2nd fewest in the East behind only Nashville.

They are coming off a 1-2 loss at Miami on Wednesday which was only the 2nd time this season that they have allowed more than one goal. But, those two goals came on just 0.90 xGA so it was more a matter of clinical finishing than New England allowing many quality chances.

The other match they allowed more than one goal was a 0-4 loss at LAFC in their 3rd match of the season. Aside from those two games, they have allowed a total of just five goals in ten matches, keeping five clean sheets.

The bad news for everyone in the Eastern Conference is that Philadelphia was eliminated from the CONCACAF Champions League.

The Union were clearly struggling to play both competitions and were flat out of the gate with just two wins in their first seven matches of the season, including four losses.

Now they are on a run of five straight unbeaten including allowing just one goal over their last three matches which was their forte last season when they won the Eastern Conference.

After allowing 1.30 xGA per 90 minutes at home in their first three matches of the season, that has now dropped to 0.97 over their last three home matches including keeping two clean sheets.

Lastly, this series has been trending to the Under with five of the last seven meetings finishing Under 2.5 goals including four of the last five in Philadelphia.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -105

Los Angeles FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | 10:30pm ET

LAFC -240 | Draw +370 | San Jose +550
Asian Handicap: LAFC -1.25 | Total: 3.0

I don’t tend to play many Overs as I don’t like to start the game chasing, but when I see a clear situation in which I expect plenty of chances, I won’t shy away.

LAFC were just held to a 1-1 draw at home by Sporting Kansas City on Wednesday but that was an anomaly.

Prior to that they were a perfect 4-0 this season with a 12:3 goal differential, plus had two additional 3-0 Champions League wins over Vancouver and Philadelphia as they have reached the finals of that competition. Last season, LAFC was 13-2-2 at home scoring 39 goals with 11 of 17 matches reaching at least three goals scored.

They lead the league in xG per 90 minutes each of the last two seasons and so far this year they are 2nd to only Seattle, averaging 1.70 per match, yet they are still allowing 1.05.

San Jose meanwhile are tied for 5th averaging 1.59 xG per 90 minutes but also allow 1.39 xGA per match which increased to 1.95 away from home. Over just their last four matches they have allowed eight goals while scoring six.

I played the Over just two weeks ago in the reverse fixture of this match although that was set at 2.75 in San Jose. We ended up cashing a half-win on three goals scored with a total of 3.40 xG in that match which only continued the series trend for these teams.

Since LAFC joined the MLS in 2018, this Southern California rivalry has seen just two of 14 matches fail to reach at least three goals scored.

You can play this one of three ways:
LAFC + Over 2.5 Goals +105
Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals +110
or simply my favorite Over 3.0 GOALS -110