New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS Oct 1

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman breaks down Saturday’s New England Revolution vs Atlanta United clash in the MLS Eastern Conference. With only two regular season games remaining, both teams need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Betting Odds

Saturday, October 1	Major League Soccer Betting Notes
New England Revolution:	+125
Atlanta United:	+180
Draw:	+275
Total:	3.25 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	1:30pm ET / 10:30am PT

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Betting Analysis

Let the playoffs begin! Okay, well not technically as there are two regular season games remaining, but this is essentially a playoff game.

If New England loses this match, they will be eliminated and if Atlanta loses, they most likely will be eliminated unless both Columbus and Miami fail to win, which will leave them still with an outside chance. Regardless, expect a raucous atmosphere in Foxborough with the entire season on the line.

Saturday’s forecast looks a little iffy with temperatures only in the mid-50s and a chance of rain showers.

A Fading Revolution

Just a few weeks ago, it looked all but certain New England was going to be able to get into the playoffs, but a run of three-straight losses has them in a must-win situation on Saturday. Going back even further, they have been in a bad rut since mid-August with just one win over their last eight matches.

Over their first 24 matches of the season, they averaged 1.36 xG per match while allowing 1.43 xGA, a far cry from their record-setting season last year, but solid enough to be playoff caliber. However, over their last eight matches, those numbers have gotten very ugly, averaging 1.15 xG while allowing a whopping 2.10 xGA.

Over the entire season, New England has allowed the fifth-most shots per game at 14.1 including the seventh-most shots on goal at 4.8. Those numbers lead to a 1.59 xGA average, sixth highest in the league.

Three Stripes on Their Way

Atlanta sits two points ahead of New England, yet still two points back of the final playoff spot. Yet, unlike New England, their playoff hopes did not look great just a few weeks ago, but two wins and a draw over their last three games has them with a very good chance of getting in.

What’s important to note is that they have kept back-to-back clean sheets vs Orlando and league-leading Philadelphia whom they held to just 0.16 xG.

Atlanta has been better on both sides of the ball this season. Defensively, they rank slightly better than average at No. 11 in shots allowed, but No. 4 in shots allowed on goal at just 3.8.

Offensively, though, is where they have shined as the average both the most shots and shots on goal per game in the entire league at 15.9 and 5.6, respectively. That leads to the fifth-highest xG, averaging 1.71, but only 0.10 behind Philly and NYCFC who average the most at 1.81.

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United Prediction

If you know me by now, you know I don’t ever trust a bad defense to lay goals and that is what we are looking at here. New England ranks near the bottom of the league and is favored against one of the most dynamic offenses. Add in the fact that the Revolution are in bad form while Atlanta is winning, it only makes sense to take the oddsmakers bait and grab the head start on Atlanta +0.25 (-125) on the Asian handicap.

Stoppage Time | Premier League Betting Tips

After a two-week hiatus for international duty, the Premier League returns this weekend with the Manchester Derby and a fascinating game between Arsenal and Tottenham. Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we preview this weekend’s marquee matchups in the Premier League.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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