New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS July 3

New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati Betting Preview

An Eastern Conference playoff preview? WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Sunday’s MLS clash between the New England Revolution and FC Cincinnati, who will enter Match Day 18 tied in points.

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Sunday, July 3	MLS Betting Notes
New England Revolution:	-180
FC Cincinnati:	+425
Draw:	+310
Total:	3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT

New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati Analysis

Cincinnati and New England currently hold the final two playoff spots in the East as they sit level on 24 points, three ahead of No. 8 Inter Miami. Weather for kickoff looks beautiful with temperatures in the low 80s and no rain in sight.

Cincinnati Eyeing Their First-Ever Playoff Run

FC Cincinnati is having their best MLS season in their short history. The MLS granted Cincinnati expansion at the beginning of the 2019 season, and they have been the league’s punching bag ever since, finishing bottom of the conference in their first three seasons. However, this year, Cincy has been much improved and only need two more points to surpass their highest point season of 24 in 2019.

When looking at xG data, Cincinnati’s first three seasons saw them finish with differentials of -0.70, -0.47 and -0.59. This season though, they currently sit in the top-half of the table with a +0.15 xG differential. Their offense has been very good as they are generating the third-most xG per game at 1.73, however, allowing 1.58 xGA is far too high to be a real contender. Still, there is no doubt they are trending in the right direction.

Cincinnati is currently on a three-game unbeaten run with draws against the reigning MLS Cup champions, NYCFC, and the Eastern Conference finalists, Philadelphia, along with a win over Orlando. On the season, Cincinnati has seven losses to go along with seven wins and three draws, but only two losses have come by more than one goal, although they did lose 5-1 to this same Revolution side in the US Open Cup seven weeks ago.

New England’s Fall From 2021

The Revolution set the MLS record last year earning 73 points in their Supporter’s Shield winning season. However, as I previewed prior to the MLS Cup Playoffs, they seemed like a team destined to fail as they were simply overperforming their metrics.

The biggest concern was their defense which ranked No. 18 in shots allowed and No. 14 in xGA, allowing 1.40 per game. They were converting their chances at a very high rate and winning every single one-goal game which was unsustainable.

This season they are performing much closer to expected and only have six wins through 17 matches. They have improved defensively as they are allowing less shots than they did last season, but they still only rank No. 14.

New England is on a very good run though as they have just one loss in their last 11 games which came in extra time vs NYCFC. But, they are settling for far too many draws and when they do win, they rarely blow teams out. On the season they have just one win by more than two goals which came against lowly Miami.

New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati Prediction

Even though New England has dominated the H2H series winning each of the last five meetings, Cincinnati looks like a team that can hang this season while New England has proven they are unlikely to win convincingly. Worryingly, Cincinnati is off a short turnaround having just played on Wednesday, but they earned a solid result in a 4-4 draw against the defending champs. I think we see them carryover that momentum into New England and give the Revolution all they can handle. Take Cincinnati +1.0 (-105).

Soccer Betting 101

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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