New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS May 28

New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Betting Preview

MLS Eastern Conference rivals kick off Memorial Day Weekend in style as the New England Revolution host the Philadelphia Union. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Saturday’s match, which has traditionally been dominated by Philadelphia.

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Saturday, May 28	MLS Betting Notes
New England Revolution:	+115
Philadelphia Union:	+245
Draw:	+250
Total:	2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT

New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia returns closer to home after a long road trip saw them win 2-0 at Portland last weekend. They currently sit atop the East with a 6-6-1 record and strong 18:9 goal differential.

New England comes in off a 3-2 road win at Cincinnati last weekend, part of a four-game MLS unbeaten run, but they did lose midweek at NYCFC in the US Open Cup. They currently sit outside of a playoff position with a 4-3-5 record and 21:22 goal differential.

The Fall of the Revolution

Last year’s record-setting Supporters Shield winners earned more points than any team in MLS history. But the Revolution has gotten off to a shaky start this season with just four wins in their first 12 games.

Before last year’s playoffs began, I wrote an article on New England as a team to avoid as all their xG numbers suggested they were getting lucky by winning every one-goal match. That proved true as they were bounced in their first playoff game vs the eventual champions NYCFC.

This season, that regression has continued, mostly due to a defense that has allowed the second-most goals per game in the Conference. They are currently on an unbeaten run of four straight matches, but only one of those teams is currently in a playoff position in the top-7.

Facing Philly will be another task all together. New England has allowed 22 goals this season through 12 matches including two goals in three straight. If they allow two goals to the Union, they will not win this match.

Union Atop the Table

Philadelphia is right where I predicted they would be at the beginning of the season as I previewed them as a team to win the MLS Cup at +1600 odds. Their defense is once again one of the best in the league. In fact, according to xG, they are the best, allowing just 0.97 xGA per game, the only team in the entire league allowing less than 1.0 per game. Their nine actual goals conceded is also No. 1 in the MLS as they have kept six clean sheets through 13 matches this year.

Philly is not a high-scoring team by any means, but they don’t have to be with their defense. They ended their six-game winless run this past weekend on the road at Portland as they were only able to generate more than one goal just one time. However, they only lost one game (their only loss of the season) during that span thanks to their defense.

Philadelphia has the third-best xG differential in the league at +0.60 per game, behind only LAFC and NYCFC, two teams they have already faced on the road and beaten (2-0 at NCYFC) and drawn against (2-2 at LAFC), proving they are more than capable of going on the road and getting a result.

New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Prediction

Not that the meetings back in 2010 have any bearing in this game, but it is worth mentioning the H2H series has been dominated by Philadelphia. New England has just nine wins in 36 all-time meetings with 19 wins by the Union to go along with eight draws.

I don’t think there is a lot of reason to overthink this one. Philadelphia has the best defense in the league and bookmakers are giving us a head start. Take the bait on Philadelphia Double Chance of +0.5 at -125.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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