New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS April 9
New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal betting preview for Saturday, April 9. The Red Bulls have started the season 3-0 on the road but are still searching for their first home win of 2022.
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| Saturday, April 9 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls: | -155 |
| CF Montreal: | +475 |
| Draw: | +285 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT |
New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal Analysis
The Red Bulls set the tone to their season with two blowout wins in their first two games, scoring seven goals on 5.44 xG, quickly putting their name into the mix of the best in the league. But there should have been an asterisk next to those games as their opponents were San Jose and Toronto, two teams in the bottom five in terms of xG differential per game last season.
Reality quickly set in for New York as they then lost their home opener 1-0 to Minnesota and followed that up with a 1-1 draw against twice-removed MLS Cup Champions Columbus.
Red Bulls’ Road Energy
Last weekend the Red Bulls got back in the winner’s circle though with a very good 1-0 road win at New England. Oddly, they went down a man in the 73’ minute and at that point we were just hoping they see it through as our 5% Best Bet of the week was on the Red Bulls +0.5.
Instead, they went on to force an own goal in the 90’ minute to win 1-0. The takeaway though, is that they are now without Fran Amaya due to that red card, their young midfielder who has become a big part of the team and already had three assists this season.
As it stands, New York is 3-0 on the road and 0-1-1 at home with a very good +0.96 xG differential. But take away those first two blowout wins against weak competition, and they actually have a -0.04 xG differential in their last three games.
What About Montreal’s Impact?
Purely just a play on words as the formerly-known Impact had a rough 0-3 start to the season before earning a win and a draw in their last two games. The schedule makers were not kind to them, opening the season at a solid Orlando team, before facing two of the MLS Cup favorites this year in Philadelphia and NYCFC.
Their worst performance was arguable that first game vs Orlando, but against Philly, they outshot the Union and were only slightly behind in xG at 0.73 – 1.06 in that 1-2 loss.
Against NYCFC, the scoreboard showed a 1-4 loss but both teams put up and equal 13 shots while Montreal generated more xG in the game, 2.40 – 1.92.
In a 3-3 draw vs Atlanta, xG showed a 2.94 – 0.70 advantage and then with their first win against Cincinnati, which was a 4-3 shootout, they actually trailed in xG 1.74 – 2.60, go figure.
So, it’s been a strange season in terms of results compared to actual chances created, but now through five matches, the numbers suggest Montreal is better than their record as the sit with the eighth-best xG differential in the league at +0.39 per game.
New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal Prediction
The data suggests some positive regression is due for Montreal which we saw in their last match vs Cincinnati, while NYRB may not be as good as their record indicates thanks to some padded results and they now have been trending in the wrong direction.
Add in the fact that New York will be missing Amaya and that is one more piece to the puzzle that points me in the direction of the road team. I’ll happily grab the full goal head start here on Montreal +1 (-125) which they have failed to cover just once in the last six meetings with NYRB.
Interested in placing a bet on Saturday’s New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this week’s MLS matches, including this New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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