Newcastle vs Leicester City Prediction and Odds | EFL Cup Jan 10

Newcastle vs Leicester City Betting Preview

In one EFL Cup quarterfinal we’ll have Newcastle battling it out against Leicester City with the winner moving forward in the tournament. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman breaks down the this Newcastle vs Leicester City match taking place in St. James Park in Newcastle.

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Newcastle vs Leicester City Betting Odds

Tuesday, January 10	EFL Cup Betting Notes
Newcastle:	-175
Leicester City:	+500
Draw:	+300
Total:	2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT

Newcastle vs Leicester City Betting Analysis

It’s always difficult to predict lineups in the early rounds of this tournament as the EFL Cup isn’t the most pristine hardware in England, but now that we are down to the final eight. You better believe squads will be going for the win and putting out strong starting XIs.

Magpies Magnificent at Home

Newcastle’s price is absolutely warranted here. They have been fantastic in EPL play, sitting 3rd in the table and rank in the Top-4 in xG averaging 1.88 per match while allowing just 1.01.

Their shots for numbers are solid but their defensive shots allowed are even better where they rank 3rd in shots allowed on target this season. They have also been very good at generating corners, once again ranking 3rd, averaging 6.6 per match.

The Magpies have been fantastic at home as they are unbeaten with five wins and four draws and have kept six clean sheets in those nine games including their current four-game run.

The only match in which they conceded more than one goal was against Manchester City with whom they drew 3-3. Of course, it is worth noting that they have only played two teams with positive xG differentials this season.

Obviously one of those is Man City and the other is Brentford who are just barely in the positive at +0.10 per match, so their home schedule has been rather easy.

Leicester City Poised For Road Upset

But Leicester is another team that has a negative xG differential and they have struggled away from home. They went on a nice run right before the World Cup break where they won four of five matches, keeping clean sheets in all four wins, with three of those coming on the road.

Aside from that, they have lost their other six on the road. However, opposite Newcastle, their road schedule has been tough having already traveled to Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and even Brighton, but Newcastle is as good, if not better, than most of those teams.

When it comes to this competition, Newcastle is getting it done with defense as they kept clean sheets in each of their last two matches, home wins over Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. Leicester have had it much easier, playing lower tier teams MK Dons from League One and Newport from League Two, both of which they won 3-0.

Newcastle vs Leicester City Prediction

Being a knock-out style tournament, I think Leicester will try to win this with their defense, even though it hasn’t been very good this season.

Newcastle has proven to be a very tough team to breakdown so they can’t afford to fall behind. I like the Under 2.5 Goals (-110) in this match as both teams look to get one step closer to some hardware. One other way to play this is pairing Newcastle ML + Under 3.5 Goals for a nice price of about +120.

Prediction: Parlay Newcastle Moneyline + Under 3.5 Goals Scored (+120)

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Soccer Betting Tips

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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About The Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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