Orlando City vs LAFC Prediction and Odds | MLS April 2
Orlando City vs LAFC Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Orlando City vs LAFC betting preview for Saturday, April 2 in Major League Soccer. After shockingly missing the MLS playoffs last season, LAFC has retaken their spot as one of the best teams in the league in 2022.
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| Saturday, April 2 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Orlando City: | +160 |
| LAFC: | +180 |
| Draw: | +235 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 7:30pm ET / 4:30am PT |
Orlando City vs LAFC Analysis
I’m still scratching my head on LAFC last season. How does a team with the second-best xG (expected goal) differential in the league fail to even make the playoffs? Additionally, they generated the most shots per game and the third-most shots on goal, while allowing both the third-fewest shots and shots on goal.
I don’t have the data, nor do I feel like digging for it, but I have to believe they underperformed at one of the highest (worst) levels in MLS history. Those numbers scream not only a playoff team, but of a team very likely to win the MLS Cup.
While it’s early in the season with only four games played, they are putting up nearly identical underlying numbers this year, except now they are actually getting the results with three wins and a draw and a strong 9:2 goal differential.
Maybe it’s due to the fact that Bob Bradley was relieved as manager after the end of the season with Steve Cherundolo now on the sidelines, or the fact that Carlos Vela is healthy and scoring goals, four through four games (he scored a total of nine goals in 28 games over the last two seasons after netting an MLS record 36 in 2019), but we are finally seeing some positive regression for LAFC.
In Like a Lion
The Lions of Orlando City have two wins, two draws and one loss to start the season, but it is the loss that is alarming, losing at home to last year’s historically bad Cincinnati team. Their defense has actually been pretty solid, allowing just 1.28 xGA per game (league avg is 1.43), very similar to each of the last three seasons, but their offense has been extremely inept to say the least.
They are generating the second-fewest xG per game at just 0.86 with the fourth-fewest shots attempted at just 9.6 per game. Each of the last three seasons they averaged between 1.31 and 1.43 xG per game.
Sure, it’s only been four games on the season and it’s much too early to panic, but perhaps they are desperately missing their best playmaker from the last three seasons, Nani, who transferred to Venezia in Italy’s Serie A during the January transfer window. Nani was responsible for 56 goals and assists over the last three years for Orlando which is clearly a big number to have to replace.
Orlando City vs LAFC Prediction
With LAFC’s offense clicking behind Carlos Vela while Orlando City is struggling to get many chances per game, I have to look at LAFC in this game, especially as we are being gifted the two-way draw no bet line at a pick’em price. I don’t see Los Angeles losing this game, and with the protection of our wager being voided if the match ends in a draw, I’ll ride with LAFC +0 (draw no bet) at -105.
Interested in placing a bet on Saturday’s MLS clash between Orlando City and LAFC? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this weekend’s MLS games, including this Orlando City vs LAFC showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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