Premier League Predictions – EPL Betting Preview For November 11-12
EPL Betting Preview Including Predictions and Picks
WagerTalk Premier League handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his Premier League prediction preview heading into November 11-12 matches. He gives betting previews for key matches including Crystal Palace vs Everton and Chelsea vs Manchester City. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goals being scored? Read his betting preview now!
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Crystal Palace vs Everton | November 11 | 10:00am ET
Crystal Palace +145 | Everton +200 | Draw +225
Arguably one of the EPL’s most improved teams over the last six weeks or so, Everton, travel down to the English capital this weekend to take on the consistently inconsistent Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.
Everton, who have ranked as a top-half team in the league since September 15th, have seemingly overcome a difficult start to the season, and with the fully fit Dominic Calvert-Lewin, finally have someone who is capable of finishing those chances they squandered earlier in the campaign.
Creating chances hasn’t been an issue for Everton at all this season, ranking top half in offensive xG and top seven in total shots per game, but the return of Calvert-Lewin has definitely added some real firepower to this team, something that makes them a dangerous proposition moving forward.
For Crystal Palace, it’s been pretty much the same as every other season, win one, draw one, lose one, and eventually finish up in mid-table by season end, and 2023/24 looks to be no different, with the Eagles currently sitting in 11th spot in the table with 15 points gained from a possible 33.
However, where Palace has struggled this season is at home, with the South London club generating just one win at Selhurst Park all year and owning the league’s lowest offensive xG rating as well, which will no doubt be a worrying factor ahead of facing an Everton defense that ranks 7th in opponent shots allowed this season.
The straight Everton victory is going off at a healthy +201 on Saturday, but for even more value, consider boosting that even further by taking the Everton to win to nil prop at a massive +415 in a game we expect the Eagles to struggle in.
Premier League Prediction: Everton to Win to Nil (+415)
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest | November 12 | 9:00am ET
West Ham -115 | Nottingham Forest +305 | Draw +270
In what’s been a surprising early season turnaround, two teams who were separated by 12 places in the league table back at the start of September are now almost neck-and-neck as 13th-placed Nottingham Forest travels to 12th-placed West Ham this weekend.
West Ham’s 0.80 PPG across their last five starts is among one of the lowest returns in the entire league, and things are arguably getting even worse for the Hammers as well after coming off three straight league defeats.
With a crucial Europa League tie coming up on Thursday night against Olympiacos, another team vying for the top spot in the group, that level of playing volume for West Ham may finally be starting to wear down their already thin roster this season.
They face a Nottingham Forest side on Sunday who continue to shine under boss Steve Cooper, with their results not living up to their impressive data so far, something we highlighted in picking them against Aston Villa last weekend.
The only major concern for the Tricky Trees ahead of this weekend’s game is their continuation from last season of being much better at home than they have been on the road, sitting top six in defensive xGA at the City Ground this year, yet a dismal 15th away from home.
Only the three teams currently inside the relegation zone have allowed more goals at the back than West Ham have since September 1st, and with Nottingham Forest not being as good defensively on the road this season either, the Over 2.5 goals definitely looks appealing this weekend at the London Stadium.
Premier League Prediction: Over 2.5 (-125)
Chelsea vs Manchester City | November 12 | 11:30am ET
Chelsea +370 | Manchester City -135 | Draw +280
While there still remains a fairly sizeable gap between where these two teams currently reside in the Premier League table heading into Matchday 12, the fact is that this game arguably couldn’t have come at a better time for Chelsea.
With Chelsea coming off their biggest win of the season so far against Tottenham on Monday night, and that over recent five-game sample size as well, the Blues are actually in the better form of the two teams, accumulating 10 points to Manchester City’s 9.
That regression wheel may finally be starting to turn for Mauricio Pochettino’s men as they’ve ranked top four in defensive xGA for pretty much the entirety of the season, and now also rank top four in offensive xG as well.
The issue for Chelsea however is that their home form simply hasn’t matched up to what they’ve been able to do on the road this year, with the Blues scoring almost half the number of goals at Stamford Bridge this year, along with their defensive xGA numbers since September 1st being significantly worse also, dropping them from 4th to 11th.
They face a Manchester City team this weekend that has looked like a completely different proposition since getting Rodri back to full fitness a few weeks ago, with the Spanish midfielder putting in a Man of the Match performance against Young Boys in their first meeting two weeks ago, and really adding shape to this Manchester City core with his superb link-up play with Bernardo Silva being key.
Chelsea’s numbers remain strong this season, but on Sunday they’re facing an even better team, both statistically and in reality, and one who should come out with the victory with room to spare.
Premier League Prediction: Manchester City to Win to Nil (+230)
Stoppage Time | Weekly Soccer Preview
Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Nick Borrman, Bryan Power and Pavlos Laguretos for Stoppage Time every Thursday breaking down betting angles across the European soccer schedule including possibly matches in Premier League!
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