PSG vs Bayern Expert Prediction and Picks | UEFA Champions League Feb 14

PSG vs Bayern Betting Preview

This PSG vs Bayern match will be the first of two legs in their UEFA Champions League Round of 16 bout. Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman breaks down this PSG vs Bayren match before start time at 3:00pm ET from Parc des Princes in Paris, France.

Get A $1 Premium Expert Picks Package

First time at WagerTalk? Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code NEWS1 when checking out! Click here to select your picks and then apply the best bargain of 2023 with coupon code NEWS1. 

Have you downloaded the new WagerTalk TV app? If not, what are you waiting for?! Watch all of our programming – Puck Time, WagerTalk Today, Bet On It and more – on all streaming platforms. Download today on Apple, Android, Amazon and Roku. 

PSG vs Bayern Betting Odds

Tuesday, February 14	UEFA Champions League Betting Notes
PSG:	+140
Bayern:	+180
Draw:	+270
Total:	3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT

PSG vs Bayern Betting Analysis

Let’s start with injury updates. There was a lot of uncertainty with the PSG squad last week in preparation for this match as Mbappe, Messi and Verratti were all injured and missed matches including this past weekend’s loss at Monaco.

However, it appears all three will be available for this match as they have returned to training. I suppose there is still a small chance that any given one of them could come off the bench but given their unlucky draw facing Bayern in this first round, I fully expect all to be on the field to start the match.

PSG On Downward Slope

PSG come into this match in worse form than their Bavarian counterparts losing each of their last two matches to Marseille in the Coupe de France and Monaco over in Ligue 1.

That is now four losses in 11 competitive matches since the WC break. Most alarming is they have only faced four quality opponents in those 11 matches and have lost all four as their other two losses came against Rennes and Lens in league play.

All their wins, and one draw, came against bottom half of the table sides or lower division teams in Cup matches.

Looking only at Ligue 1 results, PSG has been in a downward trend. Over their first 16 matches, they were unbeaten with a 14-2-0 record and a sparkling 2.51 xG average while allowing only 0.86 xGA.

However, over their last seven games those numbers have dropped to 1.85 xG average while allowing 1.38 xGA.

Still decent, but not Champions League quality. Skewing those numbers even further was a 3-1 win over Montpellier in which they won the xG battle 4.0 to 0.27. If we take out that match, PSG’s xG numbers in their other six games are in the negative at 1.49 to 1.56!

Bayern Solid in Group Play

This is European football at its finest and all those factors make plenty of reasons to fade PSG as there is no doubt Bayern is the fresher side.

The Bundesliga was the last of the Big 5 leagues to return to action following the World Cup as they had over a 2-month break.

Not surprisingly, Bayern were a little sluggish out of the break settling for three straight draws but seemed to have returned to vintage Bayern winning their last three matches by a combined score of 11-2 which should give them the confidence advantage heading into this match.

PSG vs Bayern Expert Prediction

Pressure will be on PSG to get a result at home, but they failed to be able to do that when needed during the group stage, settling for two draws vs Benfica, and ultimately finished 2nd in the group.

Bayern on the other hand, went a perfect 6-0 in their group which included both Barcelona and Inter Milan.

This may ultimately end in a draw, but everything is pointing to the edge and value on the German side and I just don’t see the losing.

Prediction: Bayern Draw No Bet (+0 Asian Handicap).  This is a 2-way line in which our wager is refunded if the match ends in a draw.

Soccer Betting Tips

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

Get A $1 Premium Expert Picks Package

First time at WagerTalk? Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code NEWS1 when checking out! Click here to select your picks and then apply the best bargain of 2023 with coupon code NEWS1. 

**************************************************

About The Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!