Real Madrid vs PSG Betting Odds and Prediction | Champions League 3-9-22

Real Madrid vs PSG Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Real Madrid vs PSG betting preview for Wednesday, March 9 in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16. PSG carries a 1-0 advantage into Spain after the first leg, but Kylian Mbappe is not expected to play for the Parisians.

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Wednesday, March 9	UEFA Champions League Betting Notes
Real Madrid:	+150
PSG:	+175
Draw:	+265
Total:	3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT

Real Madrid vs PSG Analysis

Since Leg 1 three weeks ago, PSG has lost two of three games, both on the road in Ligue 1. They lost 3-1 at lowly Nantes four days after beating Real Madrid. That was a letdown spot after a big Champions League win, so that one is forgivable. But now they are coming off a 1-0 loss at Nice this past weekend. Can we give them a similar excuse that they were looking ahead spot to this Leg 2 meeting with Real Madrid?

In all honesty, you can’t put too much into either game as PSG have almost no motivation in Ligue 1 as they still lead by 13 points even after those two losses and clearly their focus is here on the Champions League.

The thing about PSG is they show up for their Champions League games. While it took a 94th-minute goal from Kylian Mbappe to win Leg 1, they thoroughly dominated the match generating 1.88 xG compared to just 0.14 for Real Madrid. They also had the lion share of shots, taking 22 shots with eight on goal compared to just three shots for the La Liga leaders and none on goal.

PSG has not been the same team on the road this year, and Mbappe is now listed as doubtful after suffering a foot injury in training on Monday.

A Surging Real Madrid

The La Liga race has been rather tight most of the season, but thanks to a run of three straight wins by Real Madrid since their Leg 1 loss to PSG, they have now opened up an 8-point lead over Sevilla.

Real Madrid has been vulnerable at times on the road, with four losses in all competitions on the season, but at home at the Bernabeu, they have been nearly unbeatable at home with just one shocking loss to Sheriff Tiraspol in the group stage. Since then, they have 11 wins and three draws in 14 home matches including wins over Sevilla, Atletico and Inter Milan in the group stage.

Madrid has been playing great defensively all season and even more so as of late, conceding just two goals in their last six games including Leg 1, keeping four clean sheets.

The worry though for Real Madrid is they are missing two important pieces for this match, Casemiro and Mendy due to yellow card accumulation. Casemiro is a staple in the midfield for Real Madrid and that is likely where this game is to be won, while Mendy is a key piece of their backline.

Real Madrid vs PSG Prediction

Despite those missing pieces for Real Madrid, I don’t see them losing here at home. They are more than deep enough to make up for it and are very tough to beat at the Bernabeu. In fact, these two teams have met in three previous Champions League seasons over the last seven years, twice in the group stage and once in the knockout rounds, and PSG has failed to win any of those matches.

Speaking of PSG on the road, they simply have not been the dominant team that so many expect them to be outside of Paris. Since the group stage begin in September, PSG has won just four matches between Ligue and Champions League in 14 games including failing to win any of the group stage away games. PSG lost at Manchester City and drew at both RB Leipzig and Club Brugge.

As I mentioned earlier, PSG is also off back-to-back road losses in Ligue 1 and certainly can’t be bringing the highest confidence into this match with some other questionable results including draws at Lorient and Lens.

The oddsmakers have given us the great price of the two-way line, eliminating the draw as an option and that’s how I’m playing this match. Real Madrid +0 (draw-no-bet) and I’m also throwing a few bucks on Real Madrid to Qualify at +220.

Interested in placing a bet on Wednesday’s Real Madrid vs PSG clash in the Champions League? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.

Stoppage Time | European Soccer Predictions

Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos, and Nick Borrman every Tuesday at 10am ET / 7am PT for Stoppage Time as we break down the biggest matches in Europe. On this week’s episode, we discuss this week’s featured matches in the Champions League and Europa League, including Liverpool vs Inter Milan; Real Madrid vs PSG; Sevilla vs West Ham; and Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for this week’s UEFA Champions League matches, including this Real Madrid vs PSG showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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