Serie A Betting Preview – Predictions, Picks and Best Bets For Aug 19-20

Serie A Match Betting Preview for Sunday August 19-20

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Aug 19-20 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Inter vs Monza and Udinese vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Inter vs Monza | Saturday, August 19 | 2:45pm ET

Inter -285 | Draw +370 | Monza +650
Asian Handicap: Inter -1.25 | Total: 3.0

If you followed me at all last season, you know how much I loved this Monza team as they were a Top-4 over the final third of the season but were continually in the underdog role. It was free money.

Facing Inter to start this season will not be an easy task, but Monza beat Inter during their run to end last year, along with Napoli, proving they could get results against the top teams in Serie A.

They also drew with Inter earlier in the season so if anything, they have the belief that they can get a result vs Inter, who admittedly, may have been distracted with Champions League duties down the stretch.

Forgetting their final meaningless match of the season, Monza ended the season allowing an average of just 1.12 xGA per match after allowing 1.54 over their first 24 matches.

Inter made it to the final of the Champions League but fell just short, losing to Manchester City, but another Top-4 finish secured their UCL spot once again this season. However, a lot is up in the air as the squad looks much different.

Edin Dzeko and Milan Skriniar are both gone on free transfers. Andre Onana, Andrea Pinamonti and Marcelo Brozovic all were sold, among others, to help Inter reach a total of over $100M in transfer fees.

Two small role players Roberto Gagliardini and Danilo D’Ambrosio both just happened to transfer to this very Monza side helping give some additional motivation for Monza to try and grab a result.

Juan Cuadrado and Marcus Thuram were the two big name signings for Inter to fill their voids but there is no doubt the squad will look quite a bit different than last year.

Monza did spend $41M to try and bolster their squad this offseason while selling no one as they look to make a push into the top-half of the table. But I like them in this match due to being the side with the largely more cohesive unit from last season.

There is no argument that Inter is still the better team and will finish well ahead of Monza in the table, but Matchday 1 with several new faces leaves plenty of question marks for Monza to believe they can grab a result here.

Prediction: Monza +1.25 +100

Sassuolo vs Atalanta | Sunday, August 20 | 12:30pm ET

Sassuolo +215 | Draw +245 | Atalanta +110
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -0.25 | Total: 3.0

Atalanta made some nice money this summer to the tune of $130M in transfer fees with much of that coming from the highly touted young prospect Rasmus Hojland who is going to Manchester United for a smooth $75M.

He was their second highest scorer last season behind only Lookman, he will be a big loss for this team along with their most capped defender in Joakim Maehle who is going to Wolfsburg. That is a big part of both their offense and defense that is no longer in place.

Of course, they did spend some of that huge $130M transfer sum on replacements, most notably Gianluca Scamacca from West Ham to try and replace Hojland, but there is a reason Atalanta received the fee they did for him.

Aside from their summer moves, Atalanta is a team generally much better at home than on the road. Last season they had a +0.41 xG differential per match which dropped to +0.04 away, and over their final 13 matches on the road, they managed just four wins with a -0.21 xG differential.

Sassuolo too made over $100M this summer in transfers, but the difference was that the three players they were paid the majority of that for, were all already on loan and not with the team last year, so this year’s squad hasn’t lost much.

They did spend $60M of that to try and move up the table as they finished 13th last season with a -14 goal differential. At home though, they only lost seven times in 19 matches including lost just two of their final eight.

They did also manage to beat Atalanta 1-0 last season, their third straight home result against them. I like them on Matchday 1 to make that four in a row with at least a draw.

Prediction: Sassuolo  +0.25

Udinese vs Juventus | Sunday, August 20 | 2:45pm ET

Udinese +300 | Draw +255 | Juventus -120
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.5 | Total: 2.25

As you are probably already aware, the big story with Juventus is that they have been disqualified from any UEFA competition this season which, as it wasn’t the Champions League, probably wasn’t the biggest deal in the world for them.

Instead, they now have the advantage of only playing in Serie A and not having to juggle UEFA schedules as they try to get back atop Serie A after such a dominating nine-year run, but have since been unable to lift the Scudetto over the last three seasons.

There were certainly ups and downs for Juve last season. They started the season winning just three of their first nine matches, which had them in a hole early, but they went on a ridiculous 8-match clean sheet winning streak leading up to the World Cup break which had them back in the Top-4.

They were then dealt a dose of reality as they were embarrassed 1-5 vs eventually champions, Napoli, part of a three-match winless run, and they would go on another four-match winless run not too long later. Those type of streaks were something you would never see from this team.

However, almost all their issues came on the offensive side of the ball as in classic Juve fashion, the kept 19 clean sheets, exactly half of their Serie A matches, and only nine times did they allow more than one goal.

Udinese started off last season in excellent form winning six of their first eight. However, they then won just five more times over their final 30 Serie A matches!

Their offense went ice cold as they were held scoreless ten times over those 30 matches and only eight times did they score more than one goal.

Juventus lost Juan Cuadrado to Inter this offseason but replaced him with Timothy Weah from Lille who is a tremendous finisher.

Otherwise, their squad is relatively unchanged as they actually had to play by financial rules this time around! Not much to note on Udinese other than the arrival of Brenner from FC Cincinnati in the MLS.

I fully expect a focused effort from Juventus as they look to get off to a winning start and put all the non-football nonsense behind them. Juventus goes as their defense goes, so even if they struggle to score or find a winner, I don’t expect many chances from Udinese.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -110