Serie A Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview May 3-6

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 3-6 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Torino vs Bologna and Roma vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Torino vs Bologna | Friday May 3 | 2:45pm ET

Torino +170 | Draw +185 | Bologna +180
Asian Handicap: Draw +185 | Total: 3.0

“Draws are usually not my thing.” That will be the general theme of this weekend because I see a couple of matches that are so evenly matched, it’s hard to envision anything other than a draw.

These two teams have been fantastic defensively this season, both ranking in the Top-4 in actual goals allowed and xGA allowed. These defenses are no flukes. They also love keeping clean sheets as Torino has kept a whopping 17, while Bologna has kept 15.

Torino technically hasn’t been eliminated from qualifying for Europe for next season, but nine points back with two other teams ahead of them also fighting to get in is nearly insurmountable, but I expect an all-out effort to try and get the win, and that starts with defense.

For Bologna, a draw is a perfectly fine result for them as they sit in 4th place, six points clear of Atalanta in 6th as they look to close out these final four matches and earn a Champions League birth for next year.

One thing is for certain with Bologna and something I think we have seen from them over their last few matches. They are not going to take any unnecessary chances because even a point from a draw is huge, they simply must avoid losing at this stage.

With that in mind, plus again, their defense which has allowed only one of their last seven opponents to generate more than 1.0 xGA (and it wasn’t Inter, which was their only loss since January), I see them limiting Torino to few, if any quality looks while I expect the same from the home side.

These teams are very evenly matched and seem to play to the draw often in these situations, Torino with eight at home, while Bologna with eight on the road. I can’t separate these teams by a lot and fully expect this match to be tight throughout.

Serie A Prediction: Draw (+185)

Roma vs Juventus | Sunday May 5 | 2:45pm ET

Roma +175 | Draw +200 | Juventus +155
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 2.25

Roma has this match sandwiched in between two huge Europa League matchups against Leverkusen in the semifinals of that competition. This match certainly will take a back seat to those two, however, they currently sit 5th in Serie A in the final Champions League qualification spot, but only two points ahead of Atalanta.

Additionally, they are only four points ahead of Lazio. A loss here vs Juventus could very likely see them fall out of the Top-5 as Atalanta, though they too have a Europa semifinal matchup, face the worst team in the league, and an already relegated, Salernitana, which any right-minded person would expect them to grab all three points.

Meanwhile Juventus has been a mess, incapable of beating quality teams over the last three months, losing to Inter, Napoli and Lazio, while drawing with Atalanta and Milan. They have now drawn three straight matches against Torino, Cagliari and Milan.

Juventus’ woes have come on the offensive side of the ball as they have been blanked four times over their last seven matches. They aren’t losing games because of their defense. In fact, they have conceded only three goals over their last seven matches while keeping five clean sheets, yet they have just two wins to show for it.

Roma too had been playing great defensively but that has slipped a bit in recent games, mainly because of juggling between Serie A and the Europa League, in my opinion. That is my hesitation on taking the Under here, otherwise I do think a low-scoring match is likely in the cards as it has been in five of the last six meetings all finishing Under the total.

I trust Roma to find a way to do just enough to grab a result here though. They don’t lose at home very often, just three times this season, and with so much on the line in the table, I expect a lot of fight from them.

Bottom line, I can’t separate these teams by much on the field, I would give the current form and confidence boost to Roma, but the schedule favors Juventus. Call it a wash.

Serie A Prediction: Draw (+200)

Salernitana vs Atalanta | Monday May 6 | 12:00pm ET

Salernitana +650 | Draw +400 | Atalanta -300
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -1.5 | Total: 3.0

While I made the case that Roma is in a tough spot for their match against Juventus, Atalanta is in just as tough of a spot here at Salernitana. In fact, you could argue its more difficult as they have to hit the road for this match. However, there is one stark difference. The opponent.

Salernitana has officially been relegated and oddsmaker aren’t expecting much of an effort from them the rest of the way, or at least not in this match.

I jotted down the opening handicap when it was released roughly two weeks in advance and Atalanta opened as -1.0 favorites. After last weekend’s results, the number moved quickly to -1.5. That’s a big jump, and of course we missed the best of the number, but there is a reason the shift was that big, that quickly.

Salernitana’s defense has simply been laughable this season conceding a ridiculous 73 goals including allowing at least two goals in 25 of 34 matches. Over just their last 16 matches, they have allowed at least two goals 13 times, and they have conceded at least three in six of their last 11.

To their credit, they have scored in 11 of 17 home matches this season including against Roma, Juventus, Milan, Bologna and Lazio, so they are more than capable of finding the back of the net at least once here, but even if they don’t Atalanta has the firepower to score three times themselves.

Regardless of the result against in Leg 1 vs Marseille on Thursday, Atalanta will be desperate to win this match as they have a real chance to jump Roma into the Top-5 and a Champions League qualification spot depending on their result against Juventus.

I expect them to take advantage of their opponent here and grab all three points, likely in a higher scoring game.

Serie A Prediction: Atalanta + Over 2.5 (-120)

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