Serie A Predictions, Picks and Betting Tips – Soccer Betting Preview May 25-26

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 25-26 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including AC Milan vs Salernitana and Empoli vs Roma. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

AC Milan vs Salernitana | Saturday 5/25 | 2:45pm ET

AC Milan -650 | Draw +650 | Salernitana +1000
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -2.25 | Total: 3.75

Another week, another Over for Milan as their sprint to the finish line continues. Since their season was effectively over, they were ousted in the Europa semifinals, lost the Scudetto to Inter, but qualified for next season’s Champions League, their matches have all looked similar.

Three games, both teams scoring in each, with a total of 16 goals netted including at least four in each match.

Offensively, even though they scored just one last week, they look like they are having a lot of fun and playing carefree without pressure, willing to take a few more chances throughout the match. At the same time, their defense has certainly taken their foot off the throttle, and why wouldn’t they.

End of the season, Euros and Copa America coming, transfer window ahead, nobody wants to get injured so understandably, most of the defensive challenges on the ball we have seen all season, have gone away.

Both of those scenarios just lead to open matches with plenty of scoring chances both ways and I see that happening again here. Even with Salernitana’s inept offense, Milan could slip four in themselves and cover this number.

Speaking of the now-Serie B side, you can’t say enough about how poor Salernitana’s defense has been all season, ranking dead last, or maybe 2nd worst in every major statistical category, which the same can be said about their offense.

They have allowed both the most goals in the league, now 78, as well as the most xGA, allowing 2.05 per 90 minutes, the only team over 2.0 with the next most being Sassuolo at 1.78.

Salernitana surprised everyone with their 1-1 draw against Juventus two weeks ago, but the reality is they allowed 25 shots and 2.37 xGA so the damage should have been much worse. They followed that up with another 2.33 xGA allowed to Verona last week in their 1-2 home loss.

Milan has scored nine goals in their last three matches and will likely feast on Salernitana here as their final home match of the season.

Serie A Prediction: Over 3.75 Goals (-110)

Empoli vs Roma | Sunday 5/26 | 2:45pm ET

Empoli -110 | Draw +255 | Roma +255
Asian Handicap: Empoli -0.5 | Total: 2.5

The fact that we are seeing Empoli as any kind of favorite here tells us everything we need to know. This match doesn’t mean a damn thing to Roma, while Empoli’s survival in Serie A depends on it.

I get it, oddsmakers must set the price accordingly knowing full well that most public bettors are at least aware of the relegation battle and will want to bet the team that “has to win” in this situation. But I usually take a different approach.

Why do I suddenly want to trust a team to win when theoretically every match this season was a game they should be trying to win, but they couldn’t do it. Point being, I’m not about betting on a team to win simply because their position in the table suggests they have to.

Of course, each team’s motivation in these games matters and I won’t argue against the motivation all being on one side, I will just argue their ability to deliver results with that motivation. Instead, I like to look for opportunities on the total.

Unlike the Milan match we previewed, here we have the better team limping to the end of the season very tired and in very poor form.

At this point, De Rossi would be wise to rotate the squad, at least somewhat, to try out different lineup combinations and to give younger players on the team some field time as the team looks toward next season.

With that in mind, that generally means an offense that is out-of-sync and not quite as threatening. You could argue the same defensively, but usually we see this play out more on the offense side where timing passes and movements is critical to get that step ahead of the defender.

On the other side, Empoli is far from a high-scoring team. Over just their last 11 matches, they have scored a total of only five goals, three of them coming in one match against Torino, otherwise they have been blanked in eight out of their last 11 matches.

I bring that up because their best chance to win this match, isn’t to come out and try to push forward and score 2-3 goals.

They haven’t done it all season, they aren’t going to magically do it now. But against an offensive that might not be gelled right now (Roma), they should have belief in their ability to slow down Roma’s attack and thus, play this match as slow as possible, avoid unnecessary risks, and focus all efforts defensively.

That way, if they can find just that one goal, there is a chance that could be all they need to win this game.

Bottom line, I don’t see the team with the pressure on them to win, pushing the tempo of this match.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

Lazio vs Sassuolo | Sunday 5/26 | 2:45pm ET

Lazio -295 | Draw +400 | Sassuolo +600
Asian Handicap: Lazio -1.25 | Total: 3.25

Technically, as Fiorentina have a game in hand on Lazio, Lazio need a point from this match to secure their Europa qualification for next season, though, with Fiorentina playing on Thursday, they may not need the point depending on the Violas result. But let’s assume they do.

Lazio’s defense, mainly at home has been very good this season. In 23 matches, including Champions League and Coppa Italia, they have kept 13 clean sheets and have allowed two goals on only four occasions, and never more than two. They particularly love the 1-0 result which has come through eight times in those 23 matches.

Some of the teams they have kept out of the net include Juventus, Roma (twice, one was Coppa Italia), Napoli and even the mighty Bayern Munich. As a result, only five of their 23 home matches finished Over the posted total and not one of those totals was set at 3.0 or higher. Their highest total was set at 2.75.

The danger here is that Sassuolo’s defense has been horrible and the possibility of them conceding four times is real, especially because their relegation fate has been sealed.

That being said, I don’t see them scoring in this match, and Lazio has scored four goals at home exactly one time this season, so it just stands to reason it is unlikely that will happen here.

If Lazio does not have to grab a result from this match, chances are we will see both the handicap and total shift, as it already has, the total opened 3.25 and is currently 3.0. In that scenario, perhaps look to add Lazio ML + UNDER 3.5 which gives a little more breathing room when it comes to the total.

Serie A Prediction: Under 3.0 Goals (-105) or Lazio ML + Under 3.5

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