Serie A Weekend Match Predictions, Picks and Odds for April 29-30

Betting Preview for Serie A Matches April 29-30

Sportsmemo Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his weekend match predictions and picks around key matches including Napoli vs Salernitana as well as Torino vs Atalanta. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Napoli vs Salernitana | Saturday 4/29 | 9:00am ET

Napoli -475 | Draw +475 | Salernitana +1000
Asian Handicap: Napoli -1.75 | Total: 3.0

It’s only a matter of when and this weekend could be officially when we see Napoli win the Scudetto and knowing they have a chance to do so.

I think we see them do just that. The only discouraging factor is that technically they need Inter on the double chance, meaning win or draw vs Lazio so fate is not fully in their hands this weekend.

To make matters even worse, that match will be played on Sunday, so assuming Napoli take care of business vs Salernitana, they can’t officially celebrate in front of their home fans like I’m sure they would want to.

Napoli had a chance at the double before being eliminated by another Serie A side, AC Milan last week in the Champions League in the quarterfinal stage. Now there is nothing left to do but take care of business in Serie A and be crowned champions for the first time in 33 years.

I don’t think I have to get into too much detail on why to bet on Napoli, we know how good they have been this season, but I’ll add that even in the favorite role, the Azzurri handled it perfectly going 21-9-1 ATS.

Salernitana emphatically ended their six-match draw streak last weekend with a 3-0 win over Sassuolo moving them seven points clear of the relegation line.

While they likely still need a few more points to officially secure their position in Serie A for next year, it’s not like they are tied on points and in complete desperation.

They can afford a loss and if they fall behind early, I don’t see a lot of fight in them to make a comeback. Plus, the fact that they allow the most xGA in the league at 1.93 per 90 minutes, you can’t expect them contain Napoli too long.

This may be your last chance to bet on Napoli this season as trusting a team with nothing left to play for in their final matches is usually not a good strategy.

Prediction: Napoli -1.75 -120

Torino vs Atalanta | Saturday 4/29 | 2:45pm ET

Torino +190 | Draw +215 | Atalanta +135
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -0.25 | Total: 2.25

Considering the last seven meetings between these sides have finished Over the total with a ridiculous average of over 5.5 goals per match, my suggestion of taking Under 2.25 goals might be a tough one to get on board with.

Torino has been an Under team all year. Each of their last four matches have finished under the total and six of their last seven. On the season, Torino has an 11-19-1 Over-Under record with all of that coming at home where they are just 3-12 O-U.

Further, Torino averages just 1.73 combined goals per home match which is remarkably low considering the next lowest average is 2.0 in both Bologna and Sampdoria’s home matches. Their 2.09 combined xG average at home is also the lowest in the league.

Atalanta is coming off a big 3-1 win over Roma on Monday which was only their fourth win in their last 12 matches. Those four wins also happen to be the only matches in which they scored at least two goals as they have been struggling to create chances.

If we zero in on their last nine matches and take away the two weak sides they played, Cremonese and Empoli, Atalanta has averaged just 0.92 xG in their other seven matches including Roma where they scored three goals on just 1.15 xG.

Considering Torino has allowed just 1.02 xGA over their last 13 matches, which drops to just 0.89 if we remove their game against Napoli, I don’t think we should expect to see Atalanta with many chances once again here.

On the road, Atalanta has finished under the total in six of their last seven matches including each of the five quality opponents they have faced in Fiorentina, Napoli, AC Milan, Lazio and Inter. Only vs lowly Cremonese did they finish Over the total in a 3-1 win.

Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals -110

Inter vs Lazio | Sunday 4/30 | 6:30am ET

Inter -130 | Draw +250 | Lazio +320
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.75 | Total: 2.5

It has been easy to avoid Inter or even fade them recently as they have just two wins in their last ten matches, yet they have somehow found themselves in the Champions League semifinals. That is certainly more telling of who this team can be.

Even though they have just one win and a total of four points over their last six Serie A matches, they lead the league in xP (expected points) over that span at 13.80 with AC Milan the next highest at 11.99.

That’s remarkable to think about. However, it was only a matter of time before we saw some positive regression which finally showed last weekend in their 3-0 road win at Empoli. It also helps that they don’t have Champions League distractions at the moment.

Speaking of regression, I previewed last week’s Lazio-Torino matchup with this same warning, Lazio is due for plenty of it.

Despite earning the most points in Serie A since mid-February with 22 points from nine matches, Lazio rank 9th with just 13.41 xP during that stretch.

Torino ended their 8-match unbeaten run that saw them earn seven wins and one draw and I think that is just the beginning for this team.  They did manage to hold onto the 2nd position in the table thanks to Juventus also losing vs Napoli.

But, with both Milan sides, Roma and even Atalanta all lurking, and all ranked significantly higher in xP, I’m betting on Lazio falling out of the Top-4 by the time the season finishes. That begins with a loss here which subsequently, also hands the Scudetto to Napoli.

Prediction: Inter Moneyline -130