Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview April 12-14

Serie A Match Betting Preview for April 12-14

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his April 12-14 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Napoli vs Frosinone and Bologna vs Monza. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Lazio vs Salernitana | April 12 | 2:45pm ET

Lazio -330 | Draw +450 | Salernitana +750
Asian Handicap: Lazio -1.5 | Total: 2.75

This is simply about fading Salernitana who have all but mathematically been relegated back to Serie B for next season.

Meanwhile, Lazio sit only four points back of Atalanta for a European qualification and with a solid finish to the season, they can certainly play their way into at least the Europa Conference League. Doing that starts with beating Salernitana as losing points to them is something that just can’t happen.

Despite losing three of their last four home matches, Lazio has been solid in Rome this season with a 7-3-5 record. Against comparable teams, they beat Cagliari, Frosinone, and Lecce, and still have to play Verona, Sassuolo and Salernitana, so they could be a great team to bet on at home the rest of the way, but I digress. Against those three teams, Lazio allowed a total of just one goal.

Looking at all their matches including Champions League, while they haven’t always beaten the big clubs, they have done a great job defensively. In 20 matches, they have never allowed more than two goals, which they allowed only four times, while holding their other 16 opponents to one goal or fewer including keeping 11 clean sheets.

Some of those clean sheets include against Fiorentina, Feyenoord, Roma (twice), Napoli, Juventus and even Bayern Munich.

This team can certainly hold the worst offense in the league, Salernitana. With that in mind, Lazio has never scored more than three goals in 42 matches in all competitions, so unless you think Salernitana is going to contribute, this should be a good combo.

Salernitana ranks dead last in every major statistical category offensively, so it’s easy to fathom that they will struggle to create many chances and I’ll leave it at that.

Serie A Prediction: Lazio + Under 3.5 Goals (+100)

Bologna vs Monza | April 13 | 2:45pm ET

Bologna -190 | Draw +285 | Monza +475
Asian Handicap: Bologna -1.0 | Total: 2.55

I like the bounce back spot here for Bologna after a disappointing away 0-0 draw at Frosinone last weekend, with a 0-0 scoreline mind you, certainly not something many people expected given Frosinone’s home pedigree to find the net.

xG showed a final tally of Bologna 2.46 – 0.57 Frosinone so you can certainly argue Bologna probably should have found a goal somewhere in that match to win, but it’s reassurance they still played well and there is no reason to think they won’t continue that here, especially at home where they have been great this season.

Except for the two teams from Milan, nobody has beaten Bologna at home this season with 12 wins and two draws aside from those two Milan losses. Even with those losses, they have allowed a total of just eight goals in 16 matches on 0.91 xGA.

Meanwhile, Monza hasn’t been terrible away from home with six losses on the season, but the thing is all those losses came against the big clubs.

They lost at Inter, at Atalanta, at Roma and at AC Milan, all to nil. The one quality draw they secured came against Napoli, but that ended 0-0, so against those five top clubs, they failed to score a single goal and in fact they have been held scoreless eight times away from home.

Bologna’s cushion over Roma for the Top-4 has closed to three points so this is a big must-win match for them, and I like them to find a way to get it done.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna ML (-175) + Napoli ML (-275) = +110 odds

Napoli vs Frosinone | April 14 | 6:30am ET

Napoli -320 | Draw +425 | Frosinone +650
Asian Handicap: Napoli -1.5 | Total: 3.0

Napoli is a team you can easily make the argument that they should probably be in the Top-4 and holding onto a Champions League qualification for next season, or at the very least any European qualification spot. Instead, they sit 7th and ten points back of Bologna who are 4th.

The Champions League seems out of reach at this point, but a solid run to end the season should give them a chance to get into either the Europa or the Europa Conference League.

Napoli has the 3rd most xP on the season with the 3rd best xG differential per match at +0.71. They rank first in both shots created per match and corners, while ranking between 2nd to 4th in shots on target, as well as shots allowed and shots allowed on target.

I’ve said it before, the difference this year has been their inability to get results against the other big clubs, but against those teams not named Inter, Juventus, Roma, Milan, Atalanta and even Lazio and Fiorentina, they are 11-6-2.

In those matches they have a 2.13 xG average while allowing 0.79 xGA which works to a +1.34 xG average, nearly double their full season average. Point being, they beat up on bottom half of the table teams like Frosinone.

The away side has one win over their last 19 matches and remain winless away from home this season with four draws and 12 losses.

Against the Top-8 Clubs, they are 0-7 with a 5:20 goal differential plus they have an additional 0-4 loss at Juventus in the Coppa Italia. They simply cannot compete with the best clubs away from home.

Serie A Prediction:Bologna ML (-175) + Napoli ML (-275) = +110 odds