Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview April 20-22
WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his April 20-22 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Empoli vs Napoli and Torino vs Frosinone. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!
Empoli vs Napoli | Saturday April 20 | 12:00pm ET
Empoli +350 | Draw +275 | Napoli -145
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.75 | Total: 2.75
I’ll eat my own words on Napoli last week as a sure-fire win, but for many of the same reasons, I’m going back to the well.
Napoli has the 3rd most xP on the season with the 3rd best xG differential per match at +0.71. They rank first in both shots created per match and corners, while ranking between 2nd to 4th in shots on target, as well as shots allowed, and shots allowed on target.
Napoli is a team you can easily make the argument that they should be in the Top-4 and holding onto a Champions League qualification for next season, or at the very least any European qualification spot.
Instead, they sit 8th and ten points back of Bologna who are 4th. The Champions League seems out of reach at this point, but a solid run to end the season should give them a chance to get into either the Europa or the Europa Conference League.
I’ve said it before, the difference this year has been their inability to get results against the other big clubs with losses to Inter, Juventus, Roma, Milan, Atalanta and even Lazio and Fiorentina. Aside from those matches, they are 11-7-2 with a 2.14 xG average while allowing 0.82 xGA which works to a +1.32 xG average, nearly double their full season average. Point being, they beat up on bottom half of the table teams like Empoli.
Aside from one win over Napoli and one draw against Juventus, Empoli has lost every match against the big clubs and have been held scoreless 18 times. They scored one goal in each game against Juventus and Napoli, but failed to score in their other ten matches against quality meaning they have two goals in 12.
Napoli has revenge in mind plus Empoli’s overall record against good teams is very poor, so I don’t expect many good looks for the home side.
Serie A Prediction: Napoli -0.75 (-110)
Torino vs Frosinone | Sunday April 21 | 9:00am ET
Torino -160 | Draw +270 | Frosinone +390
Asian Handicap: Torino -0.75 | Total: 2.5
Big fan of Torino and betting on them to keep clean sheets in whatever form that might be. In this case, under 3.5 goals as Torino is extremely unlikely to score four.
Torino’s defense has been incredible at home this season. In 16 matches, Torino has allowed a total of eight goals with three of those coming against Inter. Otherwise, that’s just five goals conceded against the 15 teams not named Inter, while keeping 11 clean sheets.
Offensively, Torino is far from an offensive juggernaut as the team has scored more than one goal just nine times this season, and further, they have scored three goals only three times, and never more than that. That means unless Frosinone contribute, or even less likely, contribute more than one, that we are unlikely to see four goals scored here.
Frosinone had a hot start to the season with just one loss in their first six matches, plus an additional three wins over their next seven, but since then, they have just one win in their last 20 matches.
On the road they have been horrible, still winless on the season with five draws and 12 losses with only last week’s 2-2 draw at Napoli being a result against any team in the top-half of the table.
The concern is that their defense is so bad, allowing 2.08 xGA away from home, they could concede four goals to Torino. But like I mentioned, considering Torino hasn’t scored more than three all season, that seems unlikely. I like Torino to shut down Frosinone and find a way to win the match.
Serie A Prediction: Parlay Torino + Under 3.5 Goals (+135)
Roma vs Bologna | Monday April 22 | 12:30pm ET
Roma +120 | Draw +205 | Bologna +225
Asian Handicap: Roma -0.25 | Total: 2.25
Big matchup with Top-4 implications should be tight and low-scoring with both defenses playing as well as they are.
When it comes to choosing a side, Roma is a difficult side to play because of the fact they are playing in the Europa League against another Italian side, AC Milan on Thursday in Leg 2.
But when it comes to the total, I think it may help this match stay Under the number hoping Roma’s tired legs keep them from pushing the tempo here and rather look to take a different, slower approach to the match.
When looking at just recent results, both teams are in great defensive form. Roma has kept four straight clean sheets, again, prior to Leg 2 of their Europa tie with Milan, while Bologna has also kept four straight clean sheets.
Offensively, Roma has only scored three total goals in those last four matches which is all they have needed to get three wins.
Obviously all four stayed under the total. Similarly, Bologna scored four total goals, though three of those game in one game against the worst side, Salernitana. In each of their last two they were held scoreless against Frosinone and Monza, back-to-back 0-0 draws.
Finally, this series has also been low scoring in recent years as each of the last six meetings have finished Under the total with only the reverse fixture this season even reaching two goals.
Serie A Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals (-135)
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