Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview April 6-7

Serie A Match Betting Preview for April 6-7

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his April 6-7 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including AC Milan vs Lecce and Juventus vs Fiorentina. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

AC Milan vs Lecce | Saturday April 6 | 9:00am ET

AC Milan -275 | Draw +370 | Lecce +600
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -1.25 | Total: 2.75

Six straight wins on the bounce for Milan including winning both legs of their Europa matchup vs Slavia Prague, has Milan sitting 2nd in the table where Juventus had been most of the season.

In fact, Milan has been the hottest team in Serie A, except for Inter, since the end of the Champions League group stage back in December. Both fixture congestion and injuries played a hand in Milan’s struggles in the fall, but just one loss in Serie A since the group stage ended is extremely impressive.

That lone loss against Monza was certainly impacted by a red card, and their other two losses during that time came in the Coppa Italia to Atalanta and in the Europa League against Rennes though they had a 3-goal lead from Leg 1, so they did not even need a result in that match.

So, three losses in their last 21 matches vs a team with just three wins over their last 25 matches and the question isn’t who is going to win this match, rather, it’s just how to bet on Milan to win the match.

I don’t mind if you choose to lay the -1.25 handicap, but Lecce has kept it tight against quality opponents on the road this season:

0-1 at Juventus
0-2 at Inter
0-1 at Atalanta
0-1 at Lazio

Their best chance to win, or grab a result, is to do exactly what they tried to do in those matches. Setup defensively and take the air out of the match.

Because they tend to play that way on the road against so many teams, they have allowed more than two goals just one time, and thus, only three of their 15 road matches have finished Over 3.5 goals.

Milan will win this match, but Lecce won’t make it easy, so a 1-0 or 2-0 Milan seems very likely and I love the + money price we can get on Milan + Under 3.5 goals.

Serie A Prediction: AC Milan ML + Under 3.5 Goals (+115)

Cagliari vs Atalanta | Sunday April 7 | 12:00pm ET

Cagliari +350 | Draw +275 | Atalanta -150
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Hard not to want to get some money on Atalanta as they are coming off that impressive 3-0 road win at Napoli.  You have to think they should make light work of an inferior Cagliari side.

Atalanta sit seven points back of Bologna for a Top-4 spot, though they have a game in hand so essentially, they could be as close as four points, and winning these types of games is what they will need to do in order to close the gap and have a realistic shot at a Champions League qualification for next season.

While so much of Atalanta’s success comes at home, they have been decent on the road with five wins, beating up on the bottom half teams with wins over Sassuolo, Verona, Empoli and Genoa, prior to beating Napoli. 

Cagliari are clearly in the mix of those teams, and I expect Atalanta to control the match like they did in those matches.

We generally give credit to Atalanta’s offense, but in those four wins they allowed only one goal with a paltry average of just 0.47 xGA per match.  Their defense can certainly stifle Cagliari too.

Finally, aside from that four-game stretch in which Atalanta played each of the Top-4 teams in succession (!), they have won their other seven most recent Serie A matches, scoring at least two per match for a total of 22 goals.

Cagliari has been solid at home with only five losses this season, but in seven matches against the Top-9 teams in the table, Cagliari has those five losses, plus one draw and one win which came over Bologna (they have yet to host Juventus).

Despite a win and a draw mixed in, against the collection of Inter, AC Milan, Roma, Bologna, Lazio and Napoli, they have averaged just 0.84 xG per match. 

While they may sneak in a goal, I can’t imagine it will be more than one as their results suggest they won’t create many quality chances, and if Atalanta’s trend continues, scoring two goals or more, that should be enough to get the win.

Serie A Prediction: Atalanta -0.75 (-110)

Juventus vs Fiorentina | Sunday April 7 | 2:45pm ET

Juventus -125 | Draw +245 | Fiorentina +320
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Juventus is coming off a 2-0 win over Lazio on Tuesday in Leg 1 of the Coppa Italia semifinal which is basically all the have left to play for this season, aside from making sure they solidify their Top-4 spot.

It was certainly a good result considering they had just one win in their previous nine Serie A matches.
Even worse, they have been an absolute must fade from a betting standpoint as they are 0-9 ATS during that time. Certainly not a team I am ready to back to get the win.

On the flip side, Fiorentina has also been in poor form with just two wins over their last 13 matches against Italian sides which includes the Coppa Italia and Super Cup. They did progress in the Conference League and at this point, that seems like their only realistic path back into a European qualification next season.

That being said, they will come to fight here against Juventus, but considering both teams are sides that you would want to fade right now, I’ll instead look at the Under.

Juventus did allow two goals in four straight matches, but their defense really wasn’t that much different than the first half of this season.

In their first 22 matches where they had just one loss and only one occurrence in which they allowed more than one goal, for a total of 12 goals, they averaged 0.70 xGA per match.

In their last nine games, which they have now also allowed another 12 goals, they have allowed 0.93 xGA.

More yes, but still solid. In fact, in three matches against Verona, Frosinone and Atalanta, they allowed six goals on a total of 1.66 xG. I still believe this team has a good defense and their 2-0 Coppa win over Lazio is further proof of that.

Considering the Violas have been anemic on offense, and have been held to one goal or less in 12 of their last 17 matches against Italian opponents, I think Juve can slow Fiorentina down once again here.

Oh, and I’ll add this. Each of the last eight meetings between these sides, has finished Under this total. Ride the trend.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals (-115)