Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview August 26-27

Serie A Match Betting Preview for August 26-27

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his August 26-27 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including AC Milan vs Torino and Napoli vs Sassuolo. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

AC Milan vs Torino | August 26 | 2:45pm ET

AC Milan -190 | Draw +285 | Torino +475
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -1.0 | Total: 2.25

Something tells me we are not going to see much action in this match. Torino played a very Torino-like match in their opener, settling for a 0-0 draw at home vs newcomers Cagliari in a match they were certainly disappointed not to take all three points.

Now they are on the opposite end where a draw would be a very good result for them, and as such, I expect them to setup defensively and pack in their midfield and backline to not allow Milan to get in behind them.

I said it many times last season that Torino seems to be the dividing point of Serie A. Clearly better than the bottom half of the table, but they struggle against the Top-6.

I expect Milan to find a winner in this match, but I don’t think it comes easy. However, even if Milan do score early, like we saw in their first match vs Bologna in which they netted twice by the 21’ minute, they are one of the best teams in the league at seeing the match out from there.

Milan didn’t take any unnecessary chances against Bologna when they had that two-goal lead and made it very difficult for Bologna to find any real quality chances. The match finished on that same scoreline, 2-0.

Torino is not a team that you worry about scoring many goals. It wasn’t until their penultimate match last year when they finally scored more than two goals in a match. That remained the only match that they did score more than two goals, just one of 38!

We have seen this series finish in low-scoring matches in recent years as four of the last five have finished Under the total, as well as seven of the last nine. For what it’s worth, both teams have scored in just one of the last nine meetings as well.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -140 DraftKings
Alternate Options:
Under 2.25 Goals -110 DraftKings
Both Teams to Score NO -140 DraftKings

Fiorentina vs Lecce | August 27 | 12:30pm ET

Fiorentina -190 | Draw +285 | Lecce +475
Asian Handicap: Fiorentina -1.0 | Total: 2.5

This is another match I think should be tight and void of many quality chances either way. Fiorentina netted four goals in their opener but on only nine shots and 1.12 xG.

Their first goal had no business going in, their second was from a ridiculous rebound that just bounced in the only spot it could have, their third was a solid goal from a corner and their fourth was a tough angle header. They very easily could have ended on one goal.

That makes me like the idea of regression coming as Lecce are surprisingly good at limiting chances and I can’t imagine Fiorentina scoring on basically every look they get.

Lecce didn’t allow more than two goals all season until the final match of the year in a 2-3 loss to Bologna. A match that didn’t mean a damn thing to either team.

Otherwise, in their first 37 matches of the season, they didn’t allow more than two goals to any team they faced, which of course includes all the big boys like Napoli, Inter and Milan.

Lecce also didn’t score more than two goals in any match last season, so unsurprisingly, they played to a lot of Unders and owned the best Under record in the league at 11-22-5 Over-Under their lined total, and just 12-26 vs 2.5 goals.

Of course, Lecce won their opener 2-1 at home vs Lazio in a match that saw a combined 33 shots and nearly 4.0 xG, throwing all that data to the wind. However, I don’t expect that to continue here on the road where they are likely to play very cautiously and pack it in to frustrate Fiorentina.

Lecce scored two goals just five times in 19 away matches last season including a 0-1 loss at Fiorentina, so they know not to rely on their offense here, but rather earn points on the road with their defense.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -125

Napoli vs Sassuolo | August 27 | 2:45pm ET

Napoli -370 | Draw +475 | Sassuolo +700
Asian Handicap: Napoli -1.5 | Total: 3.25

The champs rolled out to a nice 3-1 win away at newly promoted Frosinone last weekend creating 19 shots with eight on target, the most in the league.

More impressively, they didn’t allow a single shot on target and only three shots all match, except for the penalty they conceded in the 7’ minute to fall behind 0-1. But it was all one-sided from there. It was exactly what they needed to get the season underway.

I backed Sassuolo last weekend at home getting a head start of +0.25 against Atalanta thinking they could get a result, but they were not good to say the least. They lacked any creativity in the match, generated only three shots on target, none of them being of good quality, with a total of just 0.38 xG for the match.

Meanwhile, Sassuolo allowed Atalanta 16 shots with six on goal and 1.50 xGA. Those numbers are only likely to get uglier on the road at, arguably, the best team in the league.

Napoli has won three straight matches over Sassuolo by at least two goals including winning 4-0 at home and 2-0 away. Two seasons ago, the Azzurri won 6-1 at home and overall have won six of the last seven in Naples, all of them by at least two goals.

Prediction: Napoli -1.5 -125