Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview December 1-3

Serie A Match Betting Preview for December 1-3

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his December 1-3 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Monza vs Juventus and Udinese vs Verona. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Monza vs Juventus | Friday December 1 | 2:45pm ET

Monza +250 | Draw +235 | Juventus +100
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.5 | Total: 2.5

You know I’m a big fan of Monza, though they may be overmatched here. They have just three losses on the season, but all three came against Top-6 sides, Inter, Atalanta and Roma. Otherwise, it’s been a rather easy schedule and they have made the most of it going unbeaten in their other ten matches including six unbeaten at home.

They concern is that they haven’t been tested at home, yet they have still struggled offensively. They scored two goals against Empoli and three against Salernitana, two of the worst teams in the league, but have only scored one goal or fewer against their other four opponents, which are all mid-table teams in Torino, Udinese, Bologna and Lecce.

Facing Juventus’ defense will be a much tougher task. In their last eight matches, Juventus has conceded a total of just two goals. This past weekend they played out a tough 1-1 draw vs Inter in a match that saw a combined 1.18 xG as Juventus’ defense did very well against the best attacking side in the league.

Aside from that one match against Sassuolo in which they allowed four goals, Juventus has kept eight clean sheets in 12 matches and allowed a total of just four goals. Even including that Sassuolo match, Juve allow just 0.75 xGA per match.

Overall, Juventus has as 4-9 Over-Under record vs 2.5 goals while Monza has a 3-10 Over-Under record. I’ll ride the data to another low-scoring match.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -125 DraftKings

Udinese vs Verona | Sunday 12/3 | 6:30am ET

Udinese -145 | Draw +255 | Verona +370
Asian Handicap: Udinese -0.75 | Total: 2.25

Udinese is due for some wins as it’s very rare a team with a positive xG differential has just one win through 13 matches, but here we are. They have simply lacked that ability to put the ball in the back of the net scoring a total of just nine goals on a whopping 18.1 xG. That is easily the biggest underperformance offensively in the league and ranks 2nd in all the Big 5 leagues, just barely behind Everton (EPL).

Udinese has scored more than one goal only one time this season and have settled for a league-high eight draws. But I’m telling you, that will change sooner rather than later, and this looks like a perfect spot.

Defensively, Udinese has been solid holding their opponents to one goal or fewer in eight of 13 matches, many of those coming against weak offensive teams like Lecce, Empoli, Cagliari, Frosinone and Salernitana. That spells trouble for Verona who rank worse than all those teams in offensive creation, averaging just 0.70 xG per match, dead last in the league.

Verona won their first two matches of the season, beating lowly Empoli in their opening match then they followed that up with a surprise win over Roma.

However, reality set in after that as they have now gone winless in their last 11 games with eight losses and three draws.

Away from home, they have scored just three goals in seven matches and average a -1.15 xG differential per match compared to Udinese averaging +0.71 at home. Again, that win is coming for Udinese and the price is more than fair in this spot.

Serie A Prediction: Udinese Moneyline (-0.5) -140 DraftKings

Shop both the ML and handicap of -0.5 as both are the same bet.

Lecce vs Bologna | Sunday 12/3 | 6:30am ET

Lecce +185 | Draw +200 | Bologna +150
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 2.25

This is another match where the underlying data suggests a clear separation in quality between these sides. Lecce’s position in the table is artificially inflated thanks to their start to the season in which they went unbeaten in their first five matches with three wins and two draws. They scored a total of eight goals while allowing only four, while xG data showed an opposite 6.0 xG to 8.6 xGA.

The law of averages kicked in though as they have now gone winless in their last eight matches, but they have still managed four draws to go along with four losses during that run. In their first six games of their winless run, they scored a total of just three goals. They did manage to net two goals in each of their last two games, though they were unable to win either match.

They are allowing a whopping 1.95 xGA per match this season which is dead last in the league and I will never back a team that has a defense you can’t trust.

Bologna though is allowing only 0.97 xGA per match as they have been strong defensively this year. They have had an opposite flow to the season as Lecce as they struggled out of the gates scoring just three goals in their first six matches, resulting in just one win, though their defense was good enough to earn four draws which is impressive on its own.

However, they have now scored in all seven matches since, a total of 12 goals while maintaining a solid defense allowing just six.

The worry is that Bologna is still winless on the road this season, but they have just one loss as they have settled for five draws. That ultimately may be what happens again here, but I think there is a much better chance they could win this match, than lose it.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna Draw No Bet (+0) -130 DraftKings