Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview December 22-23

Serie A Match Betting Preview for December 22-23

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his December 22-23 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Monza vs Fiorentina and Frosinone vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Monza vs Fiorentina | Friday December 22 | 2:45pm ET

Monza +185 | Draw +225 | Fiorentina +140
Asian Handicap: Fiorentina -0.25 | Total: 2.5

I haven’t had many opportunities to ride the Monza train like we were able to do nearly every week during the second half of the season last year, but this is a good spot to jump back on.

Monza has been favored in every home match but one, their 1-2 loss to Juventus in which they gave up the losing goal in stoppage time.

That was also their only home loss this season where they own a +0.30 xG differential. However, I don’t believe Fiorentina is a team to lay goals with on the road.

The Violas have managed four road wins in 11 matches this season including the Conference League, although admittedly, it hasn’t been an easy schedule.

They have already travelled to Inter, Napoli, Lazio, Milan, and Roma and understandably they struggled, though they did grab one win at Napoli.

Against the three weak teams they faced, they earned two wins and a draw against Genoa, Udinese, and Frosinone though they had an average -0.44 xG differential in each match so it doesn’t suggest sustained results going forward.

Most alarmingly, although the table shows Fiorentina sitting 6th while Monza is 10th, xP (expected points) ranks both teams lower, with Fiorentina dropping all the way to 15th while Monza is just ahead of them in 14th, though they basically have the same tally of 19.3.

Monza’s five losses this season have all come against teams in the Top-7 of xP, Milan, Juve, Roma, Atalanta, and Inter.

I have all the confidence they can grab at least a draw at home against Fiorentina who appear to be a pretender this season and likely only have one direction to go in the table, and that’s down.

Serie A Prediction: Monza +0.25 (-125)

Frosinone vs Juventus | Saturday December 23 | 6:30am ET

Frosinone +425 | Draw +270 | Juventus -170
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Our good read on Frosinone matches continued last week as the BTTS cashed vs Lecce, however this time around, I don’t think the chances for Frosinone to score are going to be quite as plentiful.

Overall, Juve’s defense has been excellent this season allowing a total of just ten goals with four of those coming in their lone loss to Sassuolo.

Aside from that, we are looking at six goals conceded in 15 matches as they have kept nine clean sheets. Specifically on the road, yes, they had that match vs Sassuolo, but otherwise conceded a total of just two goals in their other seven matches with five clean sheets.

Frosinone has a very good home record this season with five wins, two draws and just one loss thus far. They have scored in every home match but one, however, there are a couple concerns I have with that continuing.

First, they have had a rather easy schedule thus far. They opened the season vs Napoli, which was their lone loss, and followed that up with Atalanta, whom they beat.

Since then, their opponents consisted of Sassuolo, Verona, Empoli, Genoa, Torino, and Fiorentina who I mentioned in our first preview, are not as good as they may appear.

Second, prior to their most recent home match vs Torino, which was their first match they were held scoreless, they had scored 14 goals on 9.3 xG suggesting their scoring would slow down.

They were subsequently then blanked then by Torino. Now facing one of the best defenses in the league that allows an average of only 0.76 xGA per match, I don’t expect them to get many chances.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (-120)

Inter vs Lecce | Saturay 12/23 | 12:00pm ET

Inter -525 | Draw +550 | Lecce +1000
Asian Handicap: Inter -2.0 | Total: 3.0

I love to talk about the ‘cycles’ of Lecce’s season we have seen thus far because if you only look at the season totals and their position in the table, I think they are a bit misleading.

Lecce opened the season unbeaten in their first five matches scoring eight goals on 5.9 xG during what was a rather easy stretch including Salernitana, Monza and Genoa.

Their schedule then ramped up over their next six matches in which they managed just two points with losses to Juventus, Napoli, Roma, and even Torino, where they scored a total of just one goal in those four matches.

Now, over their last five matches, they are unbeaten again, though they only have one win to go along with four draws. They have scored in all five matches, but their opponents during this stretch have included Verona, Empoli and Frosinone. I’ll give them credit those as they earned two draws against Milan and Bologna, whom the latter has proven themselves this season, though both of those came at home

On the road it has been a very easy schedule for Lecce as they have faced only one Top-6 side, which was a 0-1 loss at Juventus, but they have no wins to show for it.

They have also averaged only 0.85 xG with a weak schedule, which is certainly not promising now facing the best defense in the league.

Inter lead Serie A in both actual goals scored and conceded, as well as xG and xGA. They have kept four straight clean sheets between Serie A and the Champions League and on the season, have kept a combined 14 clean sheets in 22 matches between the competitions.

At home, including Champions League, they have allowed an average of only 0.68 xGA per match which isn’t a good omen for Lecce to be able to create too many chances.

I don’t expect Lecce to get on the board here, and while Inter could score four goals themselves, considering they have only done that four times this season and Lecce has only allowed that many on one occasion, I don’t expect that to happen.

Serie A Prediction: Inter + Under 3.5 Goals

(This is a pre-made Same Game Parlay at DK and MGM, or make the parlay yourself at FD)