Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview December 29-30

Serie A Match Betting Preview for December 29-30

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his December 29-30 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Fiorentina vs Torino and Napoli vs Monza. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Fiorentina vs Torino | Friday December 29 | 12:30pm ET

Fiorentina +115 | Draw +215 | Torino +230
Asian Handicap: Fiorentina -0.25 | Total: 2.25

I incorrectly picked against Fiorentina last week as they were able to win 1-0 on the road at Monza which is now their 12th straight match in all competitions in which they have held their opponents to one goal or fewer.

Sure, there were four Europa Conference League matches included that came against weak competition, but that stretch also included Lazio, Juventus, Milan, and Roma.

Their newfound commitment to defense has certainly been working as they have just one loss in their last nine matches and are unbeaten over their last six.

During their current run which included eight Serie A matches, they dropped from allowing an average of 11.3 shots per match to 9.5, and 4.6 shots on target to now 3.5. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s an average of a 20% reduction in volume which is rather significant.

Torino is not an high-octane offense by any means while on that same token, they rarely get blown out. Only twice this season have they allowed more than two goals and those both came against two of the best teams in the league allowing three goals to Inter and four goals to Milan.

While Fiorentina sit 5th in the table, they actually rank 12th in xP (expected points) and I believe are not as good as their record indicates.

Torino is on a good run defensively allowing a total of just five goals over their last eight matches, keeping four clean sheets and only once allowing more than one goal. Fiorentina ranks 14th in total xG this season and is a big reason I am confident Torino can slow down their attack.

Meanwhile Torino has scored more than one goal just three times this season, and going back further, they have scored more than two goals just three times since the start of last season, a run of 55 matches.

This match seems very likely to end 1-0 either way or 1-1, I just don’t see many chances coming for either team to put up a big number.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals Scored

Napoli vs Monza | Friday December 29 | 12:30pm ET

Napoli -170 | Draw +290 | Monza +400
Asian Handicap: Napoli -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Although I usually ride the Monza train, this match looks like a good opportunity to fade them and a lot of that has to do with a negative recency bias on Napoli.

The Azzurri are coming off a 0-2 loss at Roma last week, their 5th loss in their last eight matches, but it’s been a busy stretch for them juggling their Champions League duties as well.

They were able to progress to the knockout rounds, but their Serie A form certainly suffered, at least when it came against the top teams in the league.

While I mention their recent losses, on the season, Napoli has lost eight times in 23 matches between Serie A and UCL, though I would argue they only had one “bad” loss, which came against Empoli. Otherwise, their losses came against Juventus, Inter, Roma, Real Madrid (twice), Fiorentina and even Lazio, clearly a level above this Monza side.

Despite all of that, Napoli still has a +0.76 xG differential per match this season and we can back them at less than -1.0 vs a team that has a -0.29 xG differential, which drops to -0.73 away from home.

With Monza, as much as I do love them, there is a clear separation between them and the top teams in this league.

As perfect example of that is they have six losses this season which came against Fiorentina, Milan, Juventus, Roma, Atalanta, and Inter. All those teams reside in the Top-8, as does Napoli.

Napoli will be without Osimhen and Politano for this match as both were handed red cards against Roma, but I believe they can still win.

This is also something they need to get used to anyway considering Osimhen is out for a month for AFCON in just two weeks’ time.

Serie A Prediction: Napoli -0.75 (-120)

Udinese vs Bologna | Saturday December 30 | 9:00am ET

Bologna +230 | Draw +200 | Bologna +120
Asian Handicap: Bologna -0.25 | Total: 2.25

Bologna is the story of the season thus far in Serie A as they sit 4th in the table which is deserving as they have the 6th best xG differential in the league at +0.41 per match.

They lost their opener against Milan 0-2 even though xG showed a basically even match in terms of chances created, but they have lost only one match since then and much of that can be credited to their defense which has been fantastic. Only Juventus and Inter have conceded fewer than the 12 Bologna has allowed.

Bologna has kept eight clean sheets in 17 matches, only three times have they allowed two goals, and not once have they allowed more than two. Over their last five matches, they have allowed just two goals.

Now they face Udinese who has struggled to score all season, granted, they have had recent two-goal and three-goal performances though they came against weak teams Sassuolo and Verona. Aside from that, they have only one other match in which they have scored more than one goal, plus they have also been blanked six times.

Udinese’s defense is where this play could go wrong. They are allowing 1.51 xGA per match and have conceded 28 goals. They have allowed two goals or more on eight occasions and just over their last five matches, they conceded 13 goals with all but one of them allowing more than one.

Luckily, Bologna is not an offensive juggernaut as they have scored more than two goals on just one occasion this season which came at home against one of the worst sides in the league, Empoli.

On the road, they have scored just eight goals in eight matches and only twice have they even scored two goals.

I fully expect Bologna’s defense to control this match while Udinese should slow them down just enough to keep this Under the total.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals Scored (-125)