Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview February 10-12

Serie A Match Betting Preview for February 3-4

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his February 10-12 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Roma vs Inter and Juventus vs Udinese. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Roma vs Inter | Saturday February 10 | 12:00pm ET

Roma +285 | Draw +230 | Inter -110
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Roma crushed Cagliari last weekend to make it three wins from as many matches for De Rossi to open his managerial career with Roma. You couldn’t have asked for a better three opponents to face in Verona, Salernitana and Cagliari, but kudos to him for helping his side getting the job done.

You could see the tactical change with De Rossi on the sidelines in just their first match constantly telling his guys to push forward and go for goal vs Mourinho’s completely defensive approach. Roma looked the best they have thus far as you can see the team starting to find a rhythm in their new offense.

However, now they face not only the best team in Italy, but arguably one of the best teams in the world. Inter Milan continue to win and play incredible defense, keeping yet another clean sheet over Juventus last week, their fourth straight which included Fiorentina, Napoli and Lazio as well.

In 31 matches in all competitions, Inter has allowed more than one goal just three times while keeping 20 clean sheets. And the teams they did allow more than one goal came against Sassuolo, Bologna and Benfica, teams that they are clearly better than. Against all quality sides they have faced they held Napoli twice, Lazio twice, allowed one to Juventus in two matches and one to Milan.

Inter allow 0.86 xGA per match, which ranks #2 in the league behind Juventus, but they allow just 10.2 shots with 2.8 shots on target, which both ranks #1.

I don’t care what Roma is doing differently, until I see something different from Inter, I just have to believe they will continue to do what they have done and that’s make it very difficult for their opponents to find much space and get quality chances. I am a little nervous though that Roma could do the same to them as well.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals (-125)

Bologna vs Lecce | Sunday February 11 | 9:00am ET

Bologna -145 | Draw +245 | Lecce +390
Asian Handicap: Bologna -0.75 | Total: 2.25

As we previewed last week, Bologna took care of business against Sassuolo, though in a much higher scoring match than expected. It was a good spot for them returning home after playing four of their previous five matches away as home is where they have had most of their success.

They lost their home opener loss to Milan, but have now have played ten straight unbeaten with eight wins and two draws, allowing a total of just five goals, including holding Napoli, Roma and Atalanta all scoreless.

They have also beaten up on the mid to bottom of the table teams they have faced beating Cagliari, Empoli, Frosinone, Torino and now Sassuolo. On the season, Bologna has allowed an average of just 0.93 xGA per home match.

Remember, Bologna was sitting in the Top-4 not too long ago, and rank 7th in xP (expected points) while Lecce come in at 19th.

Lecce are coming off a solid win over Fiorentina last weekend which snapped a six-match winless run. Of course, that came at home as they have really struggled away this season still winless now in 11 matches with five draws and six losses including losing their last four straight, scoring a total of just one goal.

Defense has been their problem all season as they allow 1.87 xGA per match which ranks dead last and rises to 2.13 on the road. Surprisingly, they have actually significantly overperformed those numbers as they have allowed 33 goals on over 43 xGA, but it’s hard to ignore the warning signs of conceding that many chances per match.

Although this suggestion didn’t come through last week, I’ll add in one last thing if you want to get a little greedy. Only two of Lecce’s 11 away matches have finished Over 3.5 goals, while last week was the first home match for Bologna that finished Over 3.5 goals.

If you don’t want to lay the higher price on Bologna just to win, you can pair them to win with Under 3.5 at +120.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna ML -140 and/or Bologna ML + Under 3.5 Goals (+120)

Juventus vs Udinese | Monday February 12 | 2:45pm ET

Napoli -280 | Draw +350 | Verona +650
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.25 | Total: 2.5

Perfect bounce back spot for Juventus after suffering their second loss of the season 0-1 at Inter last weekend. Of course, that was always going to be a tough match, but they continued to do their thing defensively which has been their bread and butter this season.

On only one occasion have they allowed more than one goal when they allowed four (!) to Sassuolo back in September. Aside from that, they have allowed only ten goals in their other 22 matches keeping 12 clean sheets.

Offensively, Juve did have a spike in output in January as they scored three goals in back-to-back Serie A matches, along with a couple even higher scoring Coppa Italia matches. But looking at just Serie A matches, not one of Juventus’ last 18 matches has finished Over 3.5 goals because of their defense.
Udinese has been an odd team this year.

They still have only two wins this season, which is tied with Salernitana for the fewest in the league, yet they remain just outside the relegation zone thanks to a league-high 13 draws, more than half of their 23 matches.

However, they are losing against the quality Clubs with losses to Atalanta, Milan, and Lazio just in their last five matches, plus additional losses to Inter, Roma, Napoli and this same Juventus side, 0-3 in their opening match of the season.

Juve allows 0.54 xGA at home with a +1.22 xG differential while Udinese allows 1.58 xGA on the road with a -0.61 xG differential. Udinese did have that fluke 1-0 win at Milan, but aside from that blip, against Napoli, Roma Inter and Atalanta, Udinese has averaged only 0.52 xG per match on the road.

Finally, this parlay has come through in five of the last six meetings between these sides with the only exception being a 2-2 draw back in 2021, otherwise it’s a bunch of 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 Juventus wins.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus + Under 3.5 Goals (+110)