Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview February 16-18

Serie A Match Betting Preview for February 16-18

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his February 16-18 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Inter vs Salernitana and Lazio vs Bologna. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Inter vs Salernitana | Friday, February 16 | 3:00pm ET

Inter -650 | Draw +700 | Salernitana +1200
Asian Handicap: Inter -2.25 | Total: 3.5

I’ll say this before anything else. This selection is not for the faint of heart as fading one of the best teams not only in the league, but in all of Europe, and a team I believe is a true contender for the Champions League, is a scary proposition.

I’m pretty sure I don’t have to go into too much detail on how good Inter has been. They still have just one loss (in regulation) on the season which came against Sassuolo back in September.

They were ousted from the Coppa Italia by Bologna in extra time but with both the Scudetto and the Champions League on their mind, I’m sure they don’t mind one less competition to deal with.

They rank first or second in every major category in the league. Goals for, goals allowed, xG, xGA, shots per match, shots on target, both offensively and defensively, corners, etc., etc.

Then there is Salernitana. Dead last in the league. Worst xG differential at -1.03 per match (compared to Inter at +1.41). They rank in the bottom three of all the same statistical categories I mentioned for Inter.

Every single data point suggests how lopsided this match should be and don’t get me wrong, a 4-0 Inter win wouldn’t surprise anyone and in fact, that was the reverse fixture score back in September.
But, Inter doesn’t blow out teams as often as you think.

In fact, over their last 20 matches between Serie A, Champions League and Super Cup, they have won by more than two goals just four times which includes games against Frosinone, Lecce and Verona whom all covered.

Additionally, Salernitana has only five losses by more than two goals in 24 matches including draws with Roma and Milan and losses that cover this number vs Napoli (twice), Juventus and Roma.

Most important, Inter has their Champions League match vs Atletico Madrid next week and all prep is going into that match. I don’t expect them to slip-up and lose, or even draw this match, but this match could certainly be closer than most would expect.

Inter may rotate from the start, or early into the second half and basically take their foot off the pedal as they just try to play the match out to conserve for their UCL match. This is 100% a look-ahead spot and a rare time to try and fade Inter.

Serie A Prediction: Salernitana +2.25 (-125)

Atalanta vs Sassuolo | Saturday, February 17 | 2:45pm ET

Atalanta -300 | Draw +425 | Sassuolo +600
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -1.5 | Total: 3.25

Hard not to want to get a piece of Atalanta right now who are red hot, unbeaten over their last eight matches between Serie A and the Coppa Italia with seven wins and one draw. They have scored a total of 16 goals over their last five matches including at least two goals in each game.

At home, they have won seven straight including each of their last four by at least two goals, netting a total of 13 times while conceding just twice. That run includes beating Sassuolo 3-1 in the Coppa Italia back at the beginning of January.

They have owned Sassuolo at home as they have scored at least two in eight straight matches, having won all of them, although only four were by at least two goals because their defense conceded in all eight matches.

So that is eight consecutive Atalanta + BTTS cashes at home for them over Sassuolo. They last thing I’ll add is that their offense is usually what everyone talks about, but their defense is what has won them their matches this season. In 15 matches at home between Serie A and Europa, they have conceded only nine goals, including allowing two goals three times while keeping nine clean sheets.

Sassuolo managed a home draw against Torino last weekend but have lost five straight away matches scoring a total of just three goals while allowing 12.

In fact, they have allowed at least two goals in seven of their last nine away matches and to back up the BTTS suggestion, they have scored in nine of their last 12 on the road.

This team managed to beat Inter at home but have struggled against other quality Clubs with losses to Napoli, Milan, Juventus and Bologna, three of those coming by at least two goals.

Atalanta has fought their way back into the Top-4 and I don’t see them slipping up here as they look to continue to play well and stay in that Champions League qualification.

Serie A Prediction: Atalanta -1.5 (-105) AND Atalanta + Both Teams to Score (+160)

Lazio vs Bologna | Sunday, February 18 | 6:30am ET

Lazio +120 | Draw +200 | Bologna +230
Asian Handicap: Lazio -0.25 | Total: 2.0

Back-to-back four goal wins for Bologna after a run of five matches without a win should give them some good confidence heading into this matchup at Lazio.

Plus, I love the situation for Bologna who get to face Lazio coming off a brutal Champions League matchup hosting Bayern Munich this past Wednesday, though Bologna also played midweek vs Fiorentina in a makeup Serie A match.

These two teams are about even in so many metrics. Obviously, they are separated by just two points in the table and xP (expected points) has them even closer as they difference between the two sides is two one-hundredths of a point.

Additionally, Lazio average 1.32 xG per match, Bologna 1.31, Lazio average 1.11 xGA, Bologna 1.07. The only number that jumps out at me, as it’s somewhat surprising, is that Lazio averages just 11.1 shots per match with 3.3 on target, ranking 16th and 17th, respectively, in the league. They are making the most of those shots though as their xG is solid, so take that for what it’s worth.

Bologna is a team that has been disrespected by oddsmakers all year as they rank #1 in the league against the spread with a 15-6-2 ATS record including going 5-2 in the underdog role.

There has been movement in this line as well as this opened with Lazio a -0.5 favorite but moved to -0.25 after last weekend’s results with Bologna knocking in four goals for the second straight match.

The most important factor for me is simply the Champions League midweek fixture for Lazio. I just feel it will be hard for them to get up for this match with short rest as Bologna will come in here full of confidence.

Additionally, Bologna is in the thick of fighting for a Top-4 spot currently and I just expect them to be the scrappier side here.

Lazio sit 8th with four teams ahead of them and need to take put all their eggs in the Champions League basket right now as it already seems like a tough task for them to finish Top-4 at this point.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna +0.25 (-110)