Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview February 23-25

Serie A Match Betting Preview for February 23-25

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his February 23-25 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Bologna vs Verona and Juventus vs Frosinone. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Bologna vs Verona | Friday, February 23 | 2:45pm ET

Bologna -180 | Draw +275 | Verona +500
Asian Handicap: Bologna -1.0 | Total: 2.25

I’ll continue riding the Bologna train as they are in great form with four straight wins scoring 12 goals while conceding just three. They have taken advantage of a favorable schedule winning three straight at home over a couple of easy opponents in Sassuolo and Lecce, then followed that up with a solid win over Fiorentina.

Last weekend they went on the road and beat Lazio who were in a tough spot coming off their Champions League match.

Now they get Verona who are coming off a surprising 2-2 draw with Juventus, but their road form has been terrible. After winning their opener at Empoli, Verona is winless in 12 straight matches with three draws and nine losses.

Against all quality opponents, that is, teams ranked 9th or better, they lost to all of them including Milan, Juve, Fiorentina, Inter, Roma and Napoli. Bologna is right in the thick of it currently sitting 5th in the table.

Bologna has the exact opposite home record compared to Verona’s away results. After losing their opener to Milan, Bologna is unbeaten in 12 straight matches with ten wins and two draws.

They are 11-1 ATS (against the spread) in those 12 matches as well and on the season, remain the #1 most profitable team in Serie A in terms of betting their handicap, as they are now 17-6-2 ATS.

In those 12 home matches since their opener, Bologna has been extremely tough to score against as they have allowed just five goals while keeping eight clean sheets including holding Napoli, Lazio, Roma, Atalanta and Fiorentina.

Easy to think Verona struggles to create many chances here and I fully expect Bologna to keep up their winning ways.

For a little extra something, Bologna has stayed Under 3.5 goals in 11 of 13 home matches while to Verona’s credit, they rarely get blown out and thus, their away matches have finished Under 3.5 goals in 11 of 13 matches as well.

If Bologna only wins by one goal, it’s likely in a 1-0 or 2-1 fashion which we can then cash Bologna + Under 3.5 as a secondary bet.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna -1.0 (+105) and/or Bologna + Under 3.5 Goals (+110)

Juventus vs Frosinone | Sunday, February 25 | 6:30am ET

Juventus -330 | Draw +425 | Frosinone +700
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.5 | Total: 2.75

I’ll give Juve one last chance to get it right for me here. I’ve ridden them successfully many times earlier this season with the famous Juve + Under 3.5 Goals combination.

The vintage Juve result. However, we have been burned recently as suddenly, they are in a horrible funk going winless in four straight matches and have basically lost the Scudetto in that four-week period.

While they may have fallen too far behind Inter Milan at this point, they can’t simply go through the motions as the gap between themselves and those chasing the Top-4 is quickly closing.

Both Atalanta and Bologna are red hot and although Milan just lost, they have been great as well. Point being, it’s time for Juve to put their four-game slide behind them and re-focus.

Losing to Inter was one thing, but failing to beat Empoli, Udinese and Verona is unacceptable for a “title contender.” But here’s the thing.

For the season, Juve averages 1.74 xG per match while allowing 0.76 xGA. In those three matches, they have averaged 1.61 xG while allowing 0.82 xGA. Right on their season averages. That simply suggests their play actually hasn’t changed that much, rather, they were more unlucky in their results.

Frosinone has one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing 1.81 xGA per match which rises to 2.22 on the road. In 13 away matches, they remain winless and have conceded at least two goals in nine of their last 11, losing seven of those by at least two goals. Against quality opposition, their results include:

1-5 at Fiorentina
0-5 at Atalanta
0-4 at Juventus (Coppa Italia)
1-3 at Lazio
1-3 at Milan
0-2 at Inter
1-2 at Bologna
0-2 at Roma

Notice a pattern? Only one of those matches did they stay within two goals. Expect a much-needed bounce back from Juventus here.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus -1.5 (-105)

Lecce vs Inter | Sunday, February 25 | 6:30am ET

Lecce +600 | Draw +350 | Inter -255
Asian Handicap: Inter -1.25 | Total: 2.75

Despite short rest, I simply want to put my money on Inter any chance I can get. The more I watch them, the more I believe in them and while the final score may only show 1-0 with their Champions League win over Atletico on Tuesday, they were the dominant team on the field by a wide margin.

Inter still has just one (regulation) loss on the season which came at home vs Sassuolo back in October but aside from that, the team is unbeaten in 33 matches between Serie A, UCL and Super Cup. Their defense has just been incredible as on only three occasions have they allowed more than one goal while keeping 21 clean sheets.

Over just their last seven matches, they have kept six clean sheets, allowing only 1.3 shots on goal per match with an average of just 0.67 xGA. They simply don’t allow many chances and even fewer quality chances.

Lecce, after losing just four times in their first 16 matches, have now lost seven times over their last nine. The warning signs were there, and still are for that matter, as xG data did not line up with their results. Even still, they sit 13th in the table, but 19th in xP (expected points).

Most alarming now that they face Inter, Lecce has kept just two clean sheets on the season, and none over their last 20 matches, while they have conceded 13 times in just their last five matches alone.

Laying the handicap is probably fine here, but I’m slightly hesitant with them being on the road on short rest so I will opt to use them as a parlay piece and you can pair them up with either Bologna or Juventus.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Inter ML + Bologna ML (+115) or Parlay Inter ML + Juventus ML (-125)