Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview February 3-4

Serie A Match Betting Preview for February 3-4

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his February 3-4 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Frosinone vs AC Milan and Napoli vs Verona. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Frosinone vs AC Milan | Saturday February 3 | 12:00pm ET

Frosinone +350 | Draw +300 | AC Milan -160
Asian Handicap: AC Milan -0.75 | Total: 3.0

Frosinone is a sneaky team when it comes to finding the net, even when on paper the matchup says they should struggle.

They have been held scoreless six times in 23 matches this year, but only once at home where they average 1.40 xG per match. Their lone game in which they failed to score came against Torino in a 0-0 draw, which coincidentally was also their only match at home in which they managed a clean sheet.

They haven’t had the toughest home schedule thus far, but they did score against the three quality sides they have faced, scoring one goal each against Napoli and Juventus while slotting two past Atalanta. In the reverse fixture at Milan, they also managed a goal in a 1-3 loss.

In their last two matches, granted they came against easier competition, Frosinone scored four goals on 4.6 xG so they should be bringing some offensive confidence into this match as well.

Milan notably struggled during the fixture congestion while the Champions League group stage was in action, when they were also dealing with plenty of injuries.

However, since the group stage ended, Milan hasn’t lost a Serie A match with five wins and two draws including coming off back-to-back road wins over Udinese and Empoli, scoring three goals in each.

If we add in Salernitana just before that, although they didn’t win, settling for a 2-2 draw, their last three away opponents were all rather weak sides, similar to Frosinone, and Milan scored eight goals while allowing four, averaging 2.29 xG while allowing 0.97.

This match just feels like it will play out very similarly and Frosinone should have enough chances to find that one goal to cash this bet.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay AC Milan ML + Both Teams to Score Yes (+210)

(This is a pre-made SGP at DraftKings and BetMGM, make the parlay yourself at FanDuel)

Bologna vs Sassuolo | Saturday February 3 | 12:45pm ET

Bologna -145 | Draw +255 | Sassuolo +360
Asian Handicap: Bologna -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Bologna has played great this season with just four losses, though they may argue they don’t have as many wins as they would like as they have settled for ten draws. But drawing with teams like Juve, Napoli, Inter and Milan are certainly not bad results.

At home though, they have been excellent with all but one of their wins this season coming there. Since their home opener loss to Milan, Bologna has played nine straight unbeaten, allowing a total of just three goals including holding Napoli, Roma and Atalanta all scoreless.

They have also beaten up on the mid to bottom of the table teams they have faces beating Cagliari, Empoli, Frosinone and Torino, though they did just settle for a 1-1 draw with Genoa despite xG showing a 1.36 – 0.15 tally in their favor. On the season, Bologna has allowed an average of less than 1.0 xGA per match.

Sassuolo remains the only team to have beaten both Juventus and Inter this season, which is certainly a head-scratcher, especially when you consider their win vs Inter came on the road where they have been bad with a 2-2-7 record.

While they have expected away losses to the other big Clubs like Napoli, Milan and Juve, they also have lost to weaker sides Frosinone, Torino, Cagliari and Monza.

Bologna, after sitting in the Top-4 just a month ago, have now gone winless in five straight matches including being knocked out of the Coppa Italia and are desperate to get a win.

They have also played four of those five matches away from home including each of their last three straight. I see this as a great match for them to get some positive momentum going.

I’ll add in one last thing if you want to get a little greedy. Only three of Sassuolo’s 11 away matches have finished Over 3.5 goals, while ALL ten of Bologna’s home matches have finished Under 3.5. If you don’t want to lay the higher price on Bologna just to win, you can pair them to win with Under 3.5 at +140.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna ML -130 and/or Bologna ML + Under 3.5 Goals (+140)

Napoli vs Verona | Sunday February 4 | 2:45pm ET

Napoli -265 | Draw +350 | Verona +600
Asian Handicap: Napoli -1.25 | Total: 2.5

Not laying the handicap on Napoli, but I do expect them to win and am using them as a parlay piece just to simply beat Verona. A lot has been said about their disappointing season thus far, and rightfully so, but it was always going to be hard for them to follow up their Scudetto last season. Still, I don’t think many expected them to drop to 9th in the table.

Here’s the thing, though they sit 9th, they actually have the 3rd most xP (expected points). The biggest difference this season is that they haven’t gotten results against the other big Clubs.

Aside from one or two bad performances (a home loss to Empoli and a home draw with Monza), they have beaten up on all the bottom half of the table teams including Verona whom they beat 3-1 in the reverse fixture.

Verona has been awful, especially on the road where they won their opener at Empoli but have since gone winless in their last ten with two draws and eight losses, losing to all the big boys, Milan, Juve, Inter and Roma. To their credit, they have done a solid job at limiting those teams though as they setup defensively and haven’t allowed more than two goals to any of those four Clubs.

That leads me to want to pair Napoli to win with Under 3.5 goals which none of Napoli’s last 11 matches between Serie A, UCL and the Super Cup have finished Over.

I fully expect Verona to try and take the air out of this game but ultimately see Napoli finding a way to win, though I doubt it will be easy.

Serie A Prediction: Napoli + Under 3.5 Goals (+110)