Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview January 13-16

Serie A Match Betting Preview for January 13-16

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his January 13-16 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Monza vs Inter and Juventus vs Sassuolo. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Monza vs Inter | Saturday January 13 | 2:45pm ET

Monza +500 | Draw +330 | Inter -225
Asian Handicap: Inter -1.0 | Total: 2.5

As expected, Inter bounced back last week with a win as Lautaro Martinez returned to the lineup, though it wasn’t as easy as I expected. Verona put up a fight and it took a late goal from Inter, and an even later penalty miss from Verona, to secure the three points.

Similarly, this time I expect Monza to make it difficult on Inter as they are capable of playing Inter tight.
Monza has allowed only six goals in nine home matches this year and only once have they allowed more than one goal which came against Juventus.

That match was odd as Juve held a 1-0 lead and were more than happy playing it out, but Monza scored in the 90+2’, only then to have Juve return the favor two minutes later and win 2-1. Barring another two goals in stoppage time, I think the this match could play out similarly to that one.

Monza takes care of business at home against weaker team, but they can struggle to generate offense against more quality clubs. In their last three home matches they have averaged only 0.66 xG.

Against all quality opposition this season, Inter, Atalanta, Roma, Juve, Milan and Fiorentina, all losses), they averaged only 0.69 xG. I don’t expect them to create any more than that against the best defense in the league.

Inter meanwhile has scored two goals or less in each of their last five matches as their defense is more than capable of winning games for them. On the season, they have scored three goals or more on only seven occasions in 25 matches between Serie A and Champions League.

Defensively Inter has been excellent away from home. Aside from allowing three goals to Benfica in the UCL, they have conceded a total of just four goals in their other 11 away Serie A/UCL matches.

Monza will park the bus here and try to earn a 0-0 draw or at least limit Inter to one goal, while Inter has the ability, and more importantly, patience, to be able to grind it out and find a win even if it comes late. Both scenarios will keep this match low scoring.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (+100 DraftKings)

Cagliari vs Bologna | Sunday January 14 | 9:00am ET

Cagliari +185 | Draw +205 | Bologna +145
Asian Handicap: Bologna -0.25 | Total: 2.75

This may be the first time I have bet on Cagliari this season, but I feel like this is a good spot to do so. Despite their position in the table, and the fact that they have only three wins on the season, they have proven to be a rather tough team to beat at home, especially of late as they have gone five straight matches unbeaten with three wins and two draws.

Sure, it’s been an easy run during that time with wins over Frosinone, Genoa and Sassuolo along with draws against Empoli and Monza, but with a +1.06 average xG differential in those matches, I think it proves they can play to a mid-table level at home.

Bologna is certainly deserving of their position in the table, but most of their success has come at home, while on the road it has been a different story, as they have just one win which came against the worst team in the league, Salernitana.

Still, you could argue it’s been a successful run as they also aren’t getting beaten as they have earned six draws away from home including against Juventus and Inter.

Failures to win against Verona, Monza, Sassuolo, Lecce and Udinese though speak to the troubles this team has in earning wins on the road and is a big piece of the puzzle here in fading them as a road favorite.

They also played extra minutes in a tough midweek match vs Fiorentina, where they ultimately lost in PKs on Tuesday in the Coppa Italia. That match and this match are on the road and only adds to the chances they once again don’t get a result here.

Bologna has been a great team to bet on this year going 12-5-2 ATS (against the spread), but their lack of road wins suggests they probably shouldn’t be favorites in this spot, and we will try to capitalize on that.

Serie A Prediction: Cagliari +0.25 (-125 DraftKings)

Juventus vs Sassuolo | Tuesday January 16 | 2:45pm ET

Juventus +285 | Draw +370 | Sassuolo +650
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.25 | Total: 2.75

Juventus has been excellent defensively this season, vintage Juve you might say, as on only one occasion have they allowed more than one goal when they allowed four (!) to this very same Sassuolo team back in September. Aside from that, they have allowed only eight goals in their other 18 matches keeping ten clean sheets.

With revenge on their mind, it’s likely Sassuolo fails to get on the board in this match, but if they do, it’s extremely unlikely that they net two goals or more.

On the opposite side of the ball, because of their defense, Juventus doesn’t have to rely on their offense to win matches.

Juventus scored 11 goals in their first five matches of the season, including two 3-goal performances and the question was raised, “whoa, is this a new offensive Juve?” But reality set in, and Juventus has not scored more than two goals since, meaning only twice this season have they scored more than two goals.

Thus, since they allowed four goals to Sassuolo, Juventus hasn’t lost a match (I didn’t yet mention that), nor have any of their 14 matches finished Over 3.5 goals.

That means, unless either extreme scoring trend is broken by Juventus scoring three goals or more, or allowing two goals or more, taking Under 3.5 is not likely to be a factor here.

If we look at Sassuolo, they remain the only team in the league to beat both Juventus and Inter this season, but they also have a plethora of losses, and bad losses, along with settling for draws with poor teams. There is no arguing Juventus is the better side on paper.

The only knock against Juventus is they have a quarterfinal match in the Coppa Italia on Thursday, which is why this match has been pushed to Tuesday.

Considering Juve has no European commitments this season, they haven’t been pushed to scheduling limits nearly as hard as many other top-level teams and thus, I don’t believe we should see any negative lingering effects for this match.

Juve allows 0.55 xGA at home with a +1.45 xG differential while Sassuolo allows 1.94 xGA on the road with a -0.50 xG differential. Against just Napoli, Inter and Milan, similar strength teams to Juventus, Sassuolo has averaged only 0.52 xG per match on the road.

With numbers all in Juve’s favor, along with revenge on mind for their only poor match this season, I like a classic Juve win here.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus + Under 3.5 (+115 BetMGM)