Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview January 20-21

Serie A Match Betting Preview for January 20-21

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his January 20-21 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Roma vs Verona and Lecce vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Roma vs Verona | Saturday January 20 | 12:00pm ET

Roma -235 | Draw +310 | Verona +600
Asian Handicap: Roma -1.0 | Total: 2.25

Roma needs a win in the worst way right now as they are winless over their last three matches and have slipped to 9th in the table and well outside of a European qualification for next season.

Of course, the big news is that they sacked their manager Jose Mourinho after Sunday’s loss to AC Milan which he was suspended for and wasn’t even on the sideline with the team.

No decision has been made on an immediate replacement though several names have been thrown around including Antonio Conte, Graham Potter and ex-Roma player Daniele de Rossi.

While a decision may not be in place yet for this match, I think the removal of Mourinho can still be a positive for the team to rally and get that important win they need.

Roma has been very good at home all year with just one loss, three draws and nine wins between Serie A and the Europa League.

They allowed two goals in their first two home matches of the season to Salernitana and AC Milan, but have allowed a total of just four goals in 11 matches since then. Pretty remarkable. The data backs up their results as well as they have allowed an average of just 0.61 xGA per match during their run.

That doesn’t bode well for Verona who struggle to create anything offensively, averaging only 0.94 xG per match which ranks as the 4th fewest in the league.

On the road, they have scored only seven goals in ten matches with three of those coming against Udinese. That was their only multi-goal performance and otherwise, scored just four goals in their other nine matches.

However, they do a decent job at limiting their opponents. They have not allowed more than three goals to any opponent this season and only twice did they allow three goals away from home, where it seems they really attempt to clamp down defensively. Against the quality sides they have played on the road their results are:

0-1 at AC Milan
0-1 at Juventus
0-1 at Fiorentina
1-2 at Inter

That means they are a perfect 4-0 when looking to fade them plus add the combo of Under 3.5 goals. That combo is priced at even money in this matchup and I believe is worth a wager.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Roma ML + Under 3.5 GOALS

(This is a pre-made SGP at DraftKings and BetMGM, make the parlay yourself at FanDuel)

Frosinone vs Cagliari | Sunday January 21 | 6:30am ET

Frosinone +125 | Draw +230 | Cagliari +190
Asian Handicap: Frosinone -0.25 | Total: 2.5

I’m always a sucker for a bounce back spot and I like this one for Frosinone.  Not that they were expected to win or even get a result last weekend at Atalanta, but a 5-0 drubbing was ugly and deserved as they created only 0.4 xG while allowing a whopping 4.9 to Atalanta.

Though I don’t expect their defense to improve necessarily as they have allowed at least two goals in five straight matches, I do think they can perform much better offensively as they have averaged 1.70 goals per match at home this season and have scored in all but one which was a 0-0 draw vs Torino.

Not coincidentally, that is also their only clean sheet at home this season as they have conceded to all their other nine opponents, while eight of those have seen Over 2.5 goals.  That means at home, Frosinone has an 8-2 record vs the combo prop of BTTS + Over 2.5.

We successfully backed Cagliari last week at home over Bologna and I do believe they can back that up by at least get on the scoresheet here.  While looking at their results, they have only scored six goals in ten away matches and have been blanked five times. 

Though, they have had a tough road schedule thus far having played only three teams in the bottom-half of the table.  That means they will face bottom-half teams in seven of their final nine away matches.  Perhaps a team to look at backing as we move forward.

But I digress and my point is that in the three matches against bottom-half teams, they averaged 1.23 xG per match.  Not great by any means, but certainly enough to believe they can score one goal especially when compared to their average of 0.82 xG in their seven matches against top-half teams.

They have also conceded in nine straight away matches after playing to a 0-0 draw at Torino in their road opener.

Finally, as I always like to say, this is a winnable match for both teams that could really use three points.  Expect both to push for that win and we likely see an open match.

Serie A Prediction: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (+120)

Lecce vs Juventus | Sunday January 21 | 2:45pm ET

Lecce +425 | Draw +240 | Juventus -150
Asian Handicap: Juventus -0.75 | Total: 2.0

Going back to the well on the same pick we made last week with Juventus, for much of the same reasons.

Juventus has been excellent defensively this season, vintage Juve you might say, as on only one occasion have they allowed more than one goal when they allowed four (!) to Sassuolo back in September.  Aside from that, they have allowed only eight goals in their other 19 matches keeping 11 clean sheets.

It seems very likely Lecce fails to get on the board in this match, but if they do, it’s extremely unlikely that they net two goals or more.

On the opposite side of the ball, because of their defense, Juventus doesn’t have to rely on their offense to win matches.  Juve scored 11 goals in their first five matches of the season, including two 3-goal performances and the question was raised, “whoa, is this a new offensive Juve?”  But reality set in, and Juventus had not scored more than two goals until last week when they beat Sassuolo 3-0, meaning only three times this season have they scored more than two goals.

Thus, since they allowed four goals to Sassuolo, Juventus hasn’t lost a match (I didn’t yet mention that), nor have any of their 15 matches finished Over 3.5 goals.

That means, unless either extreme scoring trend is broken by Juventus scoring three goals or more, or allowing two goals or more, taking Under 3.5 is not likely to be a factor here.

To Lecce’s credit, they have been a tough team to beat at home with just two losses in ten matches this season. 

However, they are a SELL team for me as they have been overperforming their xG data all season.  They sit 13th in the table but are 19th in xP (expected points). 

A perfect example of that is their defensive numbers at home where they have allowed only 12 goals on 16.1 xGA. 

Juve allows an average of only 0.72 xGA with a +1.06 xG differential while Lecce creates just 1.13 xG per match with a -0.74 xG differential.  In the reverse fixture at Juventus, Lecce managed only two shots for the entire match and 0.07 xG.  That was Juve’s third straight ‘Win & Under 3.5’ cash over Lecce.

With the numbers all in Juve’s favor, I like another classic Juventus win here.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus + Under 3.5 (-110)