Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview January 27-28

Serie A Match Betting Preview for January 27-28

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his January 27-28 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Atalanta vs Udinese and Fiorentina vs Inter. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Atalanta vs Udinese | Saturday January 27 | 9:00am ET

Atalanta -225 | Draw +330 | Verona +500
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -1.0 | Total: 2.75

Atalanta is rolling at home right now with four straight wins outscoring their opponents by a combined 13-3 tally. Granted, their last three opponents were Frosinone, Lecce and Salernitana, but they did start their run with a solid win over Milan.

Going back to the beginning of the season, Atalanta has just two losses which came against Napoli and Inter along with one draw against Juventus, so they have only stumbled against the best teams in the league.

In those three matches combined they were basically dead even in xG differential with an average of +0.04 per match. However, against their other eight (weaker) opponents, they have averaged 2.67 xG per match while allowing only 0.88, a difference of +1.79 xG per match.

Udinese has struggled all season with just two wins though they have managed a ridiculous 12 draws which has kept them above the relegation zone for now.

While they did manage a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture vs Atalanta, they have struggled against the top teams in the league with losses to Juventus, Fiorentina, Napoli, Roma, Inter, Lazio and Milan. Atalanta, who sit 5th in the table and 6th in xP (expected points), certainly belong in that list.

To Udinese’s credit, they do manage to find the net often and have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches with the exception coming against the best team in the league, losing 0-4 at Inter.

You can play this safe and simply take Atalanta -1.0, but I think Udinese can create enough chances to find a goal which makes the combo of Atalanta to win + both teams to score awfully tempting.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Atalanta ML + Both Teams to Score YES

(This is a pre-made SGP at DraftKings and BetMGM, make the parlay yourself at FanDuel)

Juventus vs Empoli | Saturday January 27 | 12:00pm ET

Juventus -370 | Draw +425 | Empoli +850
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.5 | Total: 2.5

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Riding the Juventus wave once again this week.

Juventus has been excellent defensively this season, as on only one occasion have they allowed more than one goal when they allowed four (!) to Sassuolo back in September.

Aside from that, they have allowed just eight goals in their other 20 matches keeping 12 clean sheets after beating Lecce 3-0 last weekend.

On the opposite side of the ball, Juventus doesn’t have to rely on their offense to win matches. They scored 11 goals in their first five matches of the season, including two 3-goal performances, but over their following 14 matches, they scored a total of only 18 goals and never more than two. Now though, they are coming off back-to-back three-goal wins.

Most importantly, since they allowed four goals to Sassuolo, Juventus hasn’t lost a match (I didn’t yet mention that), nor have any of their 16 matches finished Over 3.5 goals.

Empoli is coming off a solid 3-0 win over Monza last weekend but considering they had scored just one goal over their five previous matches, it’s unlikely they get many chances on the road in Turin.

To their credit, they do a decent job of limiting their opponents as only twice this season have they allowed more than three goals and because of their inept offense, those two matches are the only times in which the score finished Over 3.5 goals.

Juve allows an average of only 0.71 xGA, which drops to 0.53 at home while Empoli creates and average of just 0.84 xG on the road. It’s unlikely Empoli get many chances here so unless Juve score four themselves, this looks like a great combo bet.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus ML + Under 3.5 Goals

Fiorentina vs Inter | Sunday January 28 | 2:45pm ET

Fiorentina +290 | Draw +250 | Inter -110
Asian Handicap: Inter -0.5 | Total: 2.5

I rode Inter in both Super Cup matches last week as they beat both Lazio and Napoli to lift the trophy. You could argue that as negative having played two fixtures in short succession before now traveling to Fiorentina, though the Violas also played one match losing to Napoli in the semifinal.

The fact of the matter is Inter has been incredible all season with just one loss between Serie A and the Champions League. On just three occasions in 27 matches between both competitions have they allowed more than one goal while keeping a remarkable 16 clean sheets. They are proving to be one of the best teams in Europe.

Fiorentina I have highlighted as a SELL team. While they currently sit 4th in the table, I believe they only have one direction to go and that’s down. xP has them sitting 11th in the table as the own a -0.23 xG differential average per match and have really struggled against the quality teams in the league.

They have two solid wins over Atalanta and Napoli, though both of those came in the first eight matches of the season, but against the other big Clubs in the league, they lost to Lazio, Juventus, Milan, Napoli in the reverse fixture, and this very same Inter team by a 4-0 scoreline. In those five losses they had a -1.34 xG differential per match.

At home, Fiorentina has put up solid results with a 6-2-2 record though their schedule has been extremely easy thus far with their only match against a Top-4 opponent being a 0-1 loss to Juventus. Plus, they had an embarrassing 0-2 loss to Empoli.

I don’t think this will be an easy blowout win by any means, but at this price, it’s hard to pass on Inter just finding a way to get the job done.

Serie A Prediction: Inter ML -110