Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview January 6-7

Serie A Match Betting Preview for January 6-7

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his December 29-30 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Inter vs Verona and Sassuolo vs Fiorentina. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Inter vs Verona | Saturday January 6 | 6:30am ET

Inter -650 | Draw +600 | Verona +1100
Asian Handicap: Inter -2.0 | Total: 3.25

Love the bounce back spot here for Inter after settling for a frustrating 1-1 road draw at Genoa. I don’t think I have to get into too many details on why Inter will win this match considering they are one of the best teams in the world and have just one loss on the season between Serie A and Champions League.

Their defense has been superb as they have kept 15 clean sheets between both competitions, and they have also allowed more than one goal just three times for a total of 13 goals in 24 matches.

Meanwhile, Verona has won just one of their last 16 matches, but they have done a decent job at limiting their opponents. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than three goals in any match this season.

They do a good job of bottling up as an attempt to stay in the match and overall, they allow 1.50 xGA per match, which isn’t terrible but here’s the main story point.

Inter is expected to announce a contract extension with Lautaro Martinez before this match which will make him the highest paid player in Serie A, deservingly so. There were rumors that Chelsea was trying to swoop in and steal him, but Martinez wants to stay at Inter.

He has missed the last two matches with a thigh injury but it’s possible he returns for this match and if he does, I’m all in on Martinez scoring. You have heard of the “new manager bounce,” let’s call this the “new contract bounce.” I mean, the guy has 15 goals in 16 Serie A matches this season.

If Martinez doesn’t play, I’ll swap him with Under 3.5 as I don’t see Verona getting many chances in this match and to get over that total, all four goals will likely have to come from Inter.

For as good as their offense is, Inter has only scored four or more goals on four occasions this season and only once in their last 16 matches.

So, bottom line, pair Inter to win with either Martinez to Score or Under 3.5 Goals if he doesn’t play.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Inter ML + Lautaro Martinez Anytime Scorer -125 FanDuel

(If Martinez doesn’t play, go with Inter ML + Under 3.5 Goals +100)

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina | Saturday January 6 | 2:45pm ET

Sassuolo +210 | Draw +235 | Fiorentina +115
Asian Handicap: Fiorentina -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Third straight week I’m previewing a Fiorentina match and we got last week correct as their match with Torino easily stayed Under the total. This time around, I’m looking once again to fade them on the road.

The Violas are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions which includes two Europa Conference matches and one Coppa Italia match, granted the competition has been rather weak.

I’m not suggesting Sassuolo are an elite team by any means, but they are more than capable of grabbing a result. Remember, this is the only team in Serie A to beat both Juventus and Inter. They can do the same vs Fiorentina.

Though, they are winless in their last six home matches which is of course, worrisome, however, Fiorentina is not a team I trust away from home where they have just five wins in 13 matches between Serie A and the Conference League this season.

In Serie A, Fiorentina has averaged just 1.11 xG per match away from home while allowing 1.85, a -0.73 differential per match. They rank 15th in the league in xG allowed on the road.

Sassuolo only has two wins at home and a total of eight points though xP shows a higher tally of 12.3, while Fiorentina rank just ahead of them with 13.3, though they have raked up 19 points at home.

Similarly, overall, Fiorentina rank 11th with 23.6 xP this season while Sassuolo are just behind in 12th with 23.0.

While there is a 17-point gap between these teams in the table, chances created suggests that these teams are not that much different, and I’ll gladly grab the head start on the home side.

Serie A Prediction: Sassuolo +0.25 -110 (DraftKings)

Udinese vs Lazio | Sunday January 7 | 9:00am ET

Udinese +225 | Draw +210 | Lazio +120
Asian Handicap: Lazio -0.25 | Total: 2.25

I went with the Under in Udinese/Bologna match last week certainly not expecting Udinese to score three themselves, but it is a reminder that this team is of decent quality and can get results against good sides.

They are also extremely tough to beat at home as they have just two losses in nine matches this season, though that Bologna win was their first as they have settled for a ridiculous six draws in nine home matches. They do own a solid +0.38 xG differential at home though.

Overall, Udinese has only five losses this season which all came against high-quality sides, and they have settled for 11 draws in 18 matches!

Lazio is coming in off back-to-back wins, though beating Frosinone and Empoli is more of an expectation, rather than something to gleam about. On the road though they have struggled with only three wins this season.

Sure, one of those came at Napoli, but they also have losses to Salernitana and Lecce, along with a draw at Verona who literally rank as the bottom three teams in xP (expected points) this season.

Another way to look at this match is the Under as Lazio has been playing solid defense, holding their opponents to two goals or fewer in 12 straight matches, while at the same time, they struggle to score as their three goals against Frosinone last weekend was the first time they had scored more than two in 13 matches dating back to October.

Those are both reasons why ten of their last 12 matches have finished Under this total.

Serie A Prediction: Udinese +0.25 -110 (DraftKings)