Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview March 16-17

Serie A Match Betting Preview for March 16-17

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his March 16-17 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Udinese vs Torino and Juventus vs Genoa. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Udinese vs Torino | Saturday March 16 | 10:00am ET

Udinese +175 | Draw +180 | Torino +170
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.0

Torino on the Draw no Bet line on its own is a solid way to play this, but I’m going to get a little creative and combine them on the Double Chance with Under 2.5 Goals.

Torino is a difficult team to beat as they have just three losses over their last 15 matches with the big reason for that being their defense.

Only twice in those 15 matches have they allowed more than two goals with a measly 0.88 xGA during that span. While the wins are hard to come by for Torino away from home, they do just enough to at least earn a draw which is why I like to add the Double Chance option as they have played to five draws in their last nine away.

They are also a team that doesn’t score a ton of goals which is why I like combining them with the Under. Over that same 15-match span, only four matches have finished Over 2.5 goals.

When it comes to Udinese, unless you are a Top-4 team, they won’t beat you. I say that jokingly of course, but it is so odd that this team has only four wins this year, with their wins coming against Milan, Bologna, Juventus and Lazio just last weekend, which is the only one of those teams not in the Top-4.
Their issue is simple.

They lack the finishing touch as the rank as the 2nd worst team in terms of finishing their chances, scoring 6.5 less goals than their xG tally on the season and obviously a big reason why they only have four wins.

But they have avoided sitting in the relegation zone as they do just enough not to lose earning 15 draws this season which is why I wanted to get creative on this bet as a 1-1 scoreline seems so likely.

Serie A Prediction: Torino Double Chance + Under 2.5 Goals (+105)

Juventus vs Genoa | Sunday March 17 | 7:30am ET

Juventus -205 | Draw +280 | Genoa +550
Asian Handicap: Juventus -1.0 | Total: 2.25

Sometimes the best time to bet on a team, is the time you want nothing to do with them. Then again, it might also be the worst! It is hard to want to bet on Juventus right now with just one win over their last seven matches.

They went from being basically level with Inter atop the table and looking like a true title contender, to a ridiculous 17 points back in just seven short weeks.

Worrisome for them is their cushion in the Top-4 is shrinking every week and they desperately need to reverse the trend.

Juve has now allowed two goals in four straight matches after allowing more than one goal on just one single occasion over their first 25 matches this season.

However, behind the goals, Juventus allowed an average of 0.75 xGA per match over their first 25 and have allowed an average of 0.86 xG over their last four. So, has their defense really gotten that much worse?

Genoa has just one win over their last six which includes three difficult matches against Atalanta, Napoli and Inter.

Against, those three teams they allowed an average of 2.31 xGA on an average of 18 shots allowed with seven on goal. By comparison, Juve has allowed seven shots on goal on just three occasions all season.

To Genoa’s credit though, they are difficult to beat and don’t get blown out. In fact, in 14 away matches, only one has finished Over 3.5 goals as they haven’t allowed more than two goals to any opponent including Inter and Napoli in their last two on the road.

Genoa has averaged 0.87 xG per away match this season and I just don’t see Juve giving up many chances to them here. This looks like a good spot for a desperate Juventus team to grab a win though it won’t be easy and seems unlikely to be in a high-scoring game.

Serie A Prediction: Juventus ML + Under 3.5 Goals (+100)

Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Sunday March 17 | 1:00pm ET

Atalanta -120 | Draw +255 | Fiorentina +275
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -0.5 | Total: 2.75

Tough schedule stretch right now for Atalanta that has seen them go winless over their last five matches. After reeling off six straight wins and pushing into the Top-4, they have fallen back out and sit four points behind Bologna.

They have played each of the Top-4 teams in succession, Milan, Inter Bologna and Juve with two Europa matches against Sporting sandwiched in between which would always be a worry, but Fiorentina is dealing with the same scheduling as they are playing in the Conference League on Thursday just the same.

Fiorentina has gone five straight matches unbeaten so on the surface they appear to be in decent form, but they concern I have is their lack of offense on the road.

Over just their last three away matches, they scored just one goal against the combination of Bologna, Empoli and Torino. Amazingly, they only lost one of those matches, but an average of just 0.86 xG is worrisome.

Aside from the Conference League, they have really struggled away from home as of late with just one win over their last nine matches, scoring a total of just five goals.

On the flip side, Atalanta was rolling at home before losing to Bologna in their last match, but prior to that, they had ripped off seven straight Serie A wins scoring a total of 21 goals. Obviously impressive, but their defense doesn’t get enough credit as they allowed only four goals during that stretch on an average of just 1.08 xGA.

With short rest for both teams, I like the home field advantage even more than usual and just see this as a hard match for Fiorentina to bring their best game.

Serie A Prediction: Atalanta ML (-120)