Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview March 2-4

Serie A Match Betting Preview for March 2-4

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his March 2-4 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Udinese vs Salernitana and Atalanta vs Bologna. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Udinese vs Salernitana | Saturday March 2 | 9:00am ET

Udinese -155 | Draw +265 | Salernitana +400
Asian Handicap: Udinese -0.75 | Total: 2.5

Five. That’s the number to know in this match. That is the total number of wins for both teams combined this season, but I do believe one team is significantly better.

Udinese simply can’t get out of their own way. Just three wins on the season, but if there was ever a chance they could get another one, this has to be it, right? There is a reason a team with three wins is favored by as big of a number as they are.

At home, Udinese has simply been a disappointment. One win? That is dead last in the league, tied with this very Salernitana side.

What’s very rare though, is to see a team with only one win, yet have a positive xG differential at +0.23 per match. Results simply have to come to this team at some point.

Then there is Salernitana with even less wins on the season than Udinese. Just two. And they have become a must-fade as not only do they lose, but they lose by margin more often than anyone in the league as they are just 7-16-3 ATS (against the spread).

Away from home, Salernitana average a mere 0.62 xG per match, dead last, while allowing 2.25 xGA, also dead last. This just has to be the one for Udinese, right? Let’s ride it!

Serie A Prediction: Udinese -0.75 -115

Atalanta vs Bologna | Sunday March 3 | 12:00pm ET

Atalanta -115 | Draw +235 | Bologna +290
Asian Handicap: Atalanta -0.5 | Total: 2.25

This article is published before Atalanta travel to Inter Milan on Wednesday, so the following trend could change, but… Atalanta has covered the spread in eight straight matches. Bologna has covered in six straight.

This is a matchup of two very hot teams that have been cash cows which makes it hard to want to fade either one of them. However, I think there is money to be made on the total and that is by looking at what has made both of these teams cash cows. Defense.

When we talk about Atalanta, we usually default to talking about their offense, and rightfully so. This team can score 3-4 goals at any time and in fact, they have scored 20 goals in their last seven matches including at least two in all but their recent 1-1 draw with Milan. However, it’s their defense that gets overlooked and is more what I give credit to their recent run.

Atalanta hasn’t allowed more than one goal in their last 12 matches in all competitions. At home, they have played 16 matches and have allowed more than one goal just three times while keeping ten clean sheets.

When we look at Bologna, we see similar trends. In 27 matches this season, Bologna has allowed more than one goal just seven times while keeping 12 clean sheets.

They have held Napoli, Lazio, Roma, Fiorentina and this very same Atalanta team in the reverse fixture, a 1-0 Bologna win which coincidentally, is Atalanta’s only loss in their last 13 matches.

These teams match up well with one another and I see this playing out as a very tight match. I just don’t see either team giving up more than one goal here.

Serie A Prediction: Under 2.25 Goals (-105)

Inter vs Genoa | Monday March 4 | 2:45pm ET

Inter -390 | Draw +450 | Genoa +850
Asian Handicap: Inter -1.5 | Total: 2.75

Another week, another bet on Inter and while, yes, they do have a midweek match hosting Atalanta, it really doesn’t matter to me as they are a must bet team right now.

In a spot that looked like a potential stumble, at least against the spread, on the road at Lecce, laying more than one goal, and coming on short rest after a Champions League match, not only did they win again, in blowout fashion by a 4-0 scoreline, they covered the spread for the 9th straight match in all competitions. Until that stops, I’ll continue to ride that train.

In just their last eight matches, Inter has kept seven clean sheets including holding Atletico Madrid, Juventus, Napoli, Fiorentina and Lazio. In what world would anyone think Genoa is going to get many chances to score here? At home, Inter has allowed ONE goal over their last nine matches, just another incredible stat.

The most ridiculous stat though? In 34 matches between Serie A, Champions League and the Super Cup, Inter has more clean sheets, 22, than total goals allowed, 17. Insane.

Genoa has been on a solid run themselves as they have just one loss in their last 11 matches including a surprising 1-1 reverse fixture draw vs Inter just two months ago. xG showed a 1.86 – 0.41 tally in that match, which I imagine may become even more skewed now in Milan.

They also have draws with Juventus, Bologna and Napoli during that run, all solid results. Their lone loss came against a red-hot Atalanta side by a 1-4 scoreline. But here’s the thing, against those five quality opponents, they averaged 0.51 xG per match while allowing 1.87 xGA. It is remarkable they only lost once.

To Genoa’s credit, away from home they have not allowed more than two goals in any match and have lost by more than one goal just one time in 13 matches.

They know how to keep things close which makes laying the -1.5 handicap a little tough and perhaps the combo of Inter + Under 3.5 may be a little better. Only two of Inter’s last ten home matches have finished Over 3.5 goals, simply because goals would all have to come from Inter considering their defense.

Serie A Prediction: Inter + Under 3.5 Goals (-110)