Serie A Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds – Soccer Betting Preview March 30-April 1

Serie A Match Betting Preview for March 30-April 1

WagerTalk Serie A handicapper Nick Borrman presents his March 30-April 1 Serie A match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Genoa vs Frosinone and Torino vs Monza. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his Serie A betting preview now!

Genoa vs Frosinone | Saturday March 30 | 10:00am ET

Genoa -115 | Draw +245 | Frosinone +285
Asian Handicap: Genoa -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Genoa has become a pesky team, very difficult to beat with only three losses in their last 14 matches. They’ve gotten results against Juventus (twice), Napoli, and even Inter during that stretch with their slip-ups coming against Atalanta, Inter and Monza in which they conceded multiple goals, uncoincidentally, the only three games over that span in which they did allow more than one.

Frosinone is not a team you would expect to have to worry about scoring multiple goals considering they have done that only twice away from home all season, while being blanked six times in 15 matches.

They remain winless with three draws and 12 losses as their defense has been horrendous conceding in 14 straight matches, 11 of those being two goals or more.

Genoa’s wins have come against the weak teams in the league. They have five victories at home this season and have done most of their damage against teams ranked below them in the table, Udinese, Lecce, Verona and Salernitana with their only slip-up being a draw with Empoli. They do also have a win over the old-look Roma under Mourinho.

Frosinone allows the 2nd most shots per match in the league, along with the 2nd most on target, ahead of only Salernitana, the worst team in the league. They also allow 2.07 xGA per away match which also ranks as the 2nd worst, once again, ahead of only Salernitana.

Frosinone did beat Genoa 2-1 in the reverse fixture back in November, but all their success this season has come at home and I simply don’t trust them to grab a result here as they have been a profitable fade on the road at 3-10-2 ATS (against the spread).

Serie A Prediction: Genoa Moneyline or -0.5 (-110)

Torino vs Monza | Saturday March 30 | 10:00am ET

Torino -125 | Draw +230 | Monza +340
Asian Handicap: Torino -0.5 | Total: 2.25

Using Torino here to buy the total a little higher. Currently the total is 2.25 but juiced to the Under and looks like it could move to 2.0 flat, but I don’t see Torino losing this so we are going to add Torino not to lose, aka the Double Chance.

Torino is a very pesky team and only lose against teams in the top-half of the table. At home they are even tougher to crack as they have just two losses in 14 matches thus far, allowing a ridiculously low 0.65 xGA per match which ranks as the 2nd fewest behind only Juventus. Take away their 0-3 loss vs Inter and that average drops to a remarkable 0.51.

Torino has kept nine clean sheets at home this season and have conceded a total of eight goals, five of which they conceded in their two losses to Lazio and Inter. They simply don’t allow a lot of volume as their 8.5 shots allowed per home match ranks 1st in the league while their 2.9 shots allowed on target ranks 3rd. I just can’t see Monza getting many good looks here.

Monza is not a high-scoring team by any means as they get most of their results because of their defense, just like Torino.

On only seven occasions this season have they scored more than one goal and though four of those have come on the road, they have been against weak teams, Genoa, Salernitana, Frosinone and Verona. Aside from Genoa, all those teams allow more than 1.50 xGA per match, aka, not good defensive sides. Against their other ten opponents on the road, they have scored a total of three goals.

The reverse fixture finished 1-1 and that seems like a possible score again, though I do think Torino could win this 1-0 or 2-0.

Serie A Prediction: Parlay Torino Double Chance (Win or Draw) + Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

Bologna vs Salernitana | Monday April 1 | 6:30am ET

Bologna -370 | Draw +425 | Salernitana +800
Asian Handicap: Bologna -1.5 | Total: 2.75

Bologna has had a great season, but it still makes me do a double take to see them listed as -1.5 favorites, though they are deserving of it here against the worst team in the league.
Bologna has just five losses on the season and only two at home which came against both teams from Milan. Prior to their 0-1 home loss to Inter, Bologna had covered this number in four straight home matches:

2-0 over Verona
2-0 over Fiorentina
4-0 over Lecce
4-2 over Sassuolo

They also kept nine clean sheets in 12 home matches prior to that Inter loss. This team is very difficult to create chances against and score on as they rank in the Top-4 in shots allowed, shots allowed on target and thus, xGA. They are deserving of their place in the table.

As is Salernitana, who ranks dead last in every major offensive and defensive category. xG, shots for, and shots on target, xGA, shots allowed, and shots allowed on target, plus corners allowed. They only statistic in which they don’t rank last is corners where they rank 16th.

It’s hard to describe any other way how bad this team has been. They have just two wins on the season, though one of those did come on the road, but creating 0.67 xG away from home against a defense as strong as Bologna is a bad omen.

Salernitana has been blanked seven times on the road and against their two most recent opponents with strong defenses, Inter and Torino, Salernitana generated a combined 0.13 xG on four shots with one on target. Yes, those are combined numbers between both matches.

Bologna will hold them to single digit shot attempts and should have plenty of their own chances to score multiple goals.

Serie A Prediction: Bologna -1.5 (-110)